Impact of control strategies on COVID-19 pandemic and the SIR model based forecasting in Bangladesh

Rahman, MM; Ahmed, Asif; Hossain, Kamal; Haque, Tasnima; Anowar, Hussain

doi:10.1101/2020.04.19.20071415

Cited by 17 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 16 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Median age data presented that developing countries hold more young populations compared to developed countries. Young population always have tendencies to go outside and making them vulnerable age group (32). Therefore, test positive rates were high in developing countries where median age is below 30 years ( Figure 1C).…”

Section: Socioeconomic and Demographic Determinants Of Covid-19 Test mentioning

confidence: 99%

Lifestyle acquired immunity, decentralized intelligent infrastructures and revised healthcare expenditures may limit pandemic catastrophe: a lesson from COVID-19

Ahmed

Haque²,

Rahman

2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Human race has often faced pandemic with substantial number of fatalities. As COVID-19 pandemic reached and endured in every corner on earth, countries with moderate to strong healthcare support and expenditure seemed to struggle in containing disease transmission and casualties. COVID-19 affected countries have variability in demographic, socioeconomic and life style health indicators. At this context it is important to find out at what extent these parametric variations are actually modulating disease outcomes. To answer this, we have selected demographic, socioeconomic and health indicators e.g. population density, percentage of urban population, median age, health expenditure per capita, obesity, diabetes prevalence, alcohol intake, tobacco use, case fatality of non communicable diseases (NCDs) as independent variables. Countries were grouped according to these variables and influence on dependent variables e.g. COVID-19 test positive, case fatality and case recovery rates were statistically analyzed. The results suggest that countries with variable median age has significantly different outcome on test positive rate (P<0.01). Both median age (P=0.0397) and health expenditure per capita (P=0.0041) has positive relation with case recovery. Increasing number of test per 100K population showed positive and negative relation with number of positives per 100K population (P=0.0001) and percentage of test positives (P<0.0001) respectively. Alcohol intake per capita in liter (P=0.0046), diabetes prevalence (P=0.0389) and NCDs mortalities (P=0.0477) also showed statistical relation with case fatality rate. Further analysis revealed that countries with high healthcare expenditure along with high median age and increased urban population showed more case fatality but also had better recovery rate. Investment in health sector alone is insufficient in controlling pandemic severity. Intelligent and sustainable healthcare both in urban and rural settings and healthy lifestyle acquired immunity may reduce disease transmission and comorbidity induced fatalities respectively.

show abstract

Section: Socioeconomic and Demographic Determinants Of Covid-19 Test mentioning

confidence: 99%

Lifestyle acquired immunity, decentralized intelligent infrastructures and revised healthcare expenditures may limit pandemic catastrophe: a lesson from COVID-19

Ahmed

Haque²,

Rahman

2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Median age data indicated that developing countries have younger populations compared to developed countries. The young population has tendencies to go outside, making them a vulnerable age group (32). Therefore, positive test rates were high in developing countries where the median age is below 30 years ( Figure 1C).…”

Section: Socioeconomic and Demographic Determinants Of Covid-19 Positmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Healthcare personnel are also being infected in all countries regardless of the country's economic status and demographic characters ( 24 , 31 ). Several disease susceptibility patterns and predictions are also made to understand trends of infections, death, and recovery patterns ( 6 , 32 ) and factors that influence transmission and fatalities ( 6 ). The associations of different environmental factors have also been investigated ( 6 , 33 , 34 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lifestyle Acquired Immunity, Decentralized Intelligent Infrastructures, and Revised Healthcare Expenditures May Limit Pandemic Catastrophe: A Lesson From COVID-19

Ahmed

Haque

Rahman

2020

Front. Public Health

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Throughout history, the human race has often faced pandemics with substantial numbers of fatalities. As the COVID-19 pandemic has now affected the whole planet, even countries with moderate to strong healthcare support and expenditure have struggled to contain disease transmission and casualties. Countries affected by COVID-19 have different demographics, socioeconomic, and lifestyle health indicators. In this context, it is important to find out to what extent these parametric variations are modulating disease outcomes. To answer this, this study selected demographic, socioeconomic, and health indicators e.g., population density, percentage of the urban population, median age, health expenditure per capita, obesity, diabetes prevalence, alcohol intake, tobacco use, case fatality of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) as independent variables. Countries were grouped according to these variables and influence on dependent variables e.g., COVID-19 positive tests, case fatality, and case recovery rates were statistically analyzed. The results suggested that countries with variable median age had a significantly different outcome on positive test rate (P < 0.01). Both the median age (P = 0.0397) and health expenditure per capita (P = 0.0041) showed a positive relation with case recovery. An increasing number of tests per 100 K of the population showed a positive and negative relationship with the number of positives per 100 K population (P = 0.0001) and the percentage of positive tests (P < 0.0001), respectively. Alcohol intake per capita in liter (P = 0.0046), diabetes prevalence (P = 0.0389), and NCDs mortalities (P = 0.0477) also showed a statistical relation to the case fatality rate. Further analysis revealed that countries with high healthcare expenditure along with high median age and increased urban population showed more case fatality but also had a better recovery rate. Investment in the health sector alone is insufficient in controlling the severity of the pandemic. Intelligent and sustainable healthcare both in urban and rural settings and healthy lifestyle acquired immunity may reduce disease transmission and comorbidity induced fatalities, respectively.

show abstract

“…But with the implementation of the various epidemic control methods in Bangladesh, the "randomly mixed" condition for virus transmission within the population has been violated. Currently, a few different R 0 estimations have been reported ranging between 1.4 to 3.0 [23,24,25] for the country. But due to the intervention mechanism, the original method to compute susceptible population from the R 0 cannot be followed.…”

Section: Adjustment Of Covid-19 Dynamics In Herd Immunitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Adjusted Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic Due to Herd Immunity in Bangladesh

Hoque

Islam

Das

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Amid growing debate between scientists and policymakers on the trade-oﬀ between public safety and reviving economy during the COVID-19 pandemic, the government of Bangladesh decided to relax the countrywide lockdown restrictions from the beginning of June 2020. Instead, the Ministry of Public Aﬀairs oﬃcials have declared some parts of the capital city and a few other districts as red zones or high-risk areas based on the number of people infected in the late June 2020. Nonetheless, the COVID-19 infection rate had been increasing in almost every other part of the country. Ironically, rather than ensuring rapid tests and isolation of COVID-19 patients, from the beginning of July 2020, the Directorate General of Health Services restrained the maximum number of tests per laboratory. Thus, the health experts have raised the question of whether the government is heading toward achieving herd immunity instead of containing the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods We propose an age-group clustering method to estimate the susceptible population and use the adjusted SIRD model with Unscented Kalman Filter to analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission rate in Bangladesh.Results Our analysis on the susceptible population distribution suggests that the key propagation agent is the young adult due to their socio-economic activities. We demonstrate that the herd immunity threshold can be reduced to 31% than that of 60% by considering age group cluster analysis resulting maximum 53.0 million susceptible populations in the lower middle income country. However, the case fatality rate (CFR) analysis shows that the most vulnerable people belong to the older population (> 60 years) in Bangladesh following the global trend. With the data of Covid-19 cases till July 22,2020, the time-varying reproduction numbers are used to explain the nature of the pandemic.Conclusions Based on the estimations of active, severe, and critical cases, we discuss a set of policy recommendations to improve the current pandemic control methods in Bangladesh. Moreover, we suggest a fair trade-oﬀ between health versus the economy in order to avoid enormous death toll and to keep Bangladesh’s economy alive.

show abstract

Impact of control strategies on COVID-19 pandemic and the SIR model based forecasting in Bangladesh

Cited by 17 publications

References 16 publications

Lifestyle acquired immunity, decentralized intelligent infrastructures and revised healthcare expenditures may limit pandemic catastrophe: a lesson from COVID-19

Lifestyle acquired immunity, decentralized intelligent infrastructures and revised healthcare expenditures may limit pandemic catastrophe: a lesson from COVID-19

Lifestyle Acquired Immunity, Decentralized Intelligent Infrastructures, and Revised Healthcare Expenditures May Limit Pandemic Catastrophe: A Lesson From COVID-19

Adjusted Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic Due to Herd Immunity in Bangladesh

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About