Impact of control strategies on COVID-19 pandemic and the SIR model based forecasting in Bangladesh.

Abstract

BackgroundCOVID-19 is transmitting worldwide drastically and infected nearly two and half million of people so far. Till date 2144 cases of COVID-19 is confirmed in Bangladesh till 18 th April though the stage-3/4 transmission is not validated yet. MethodsTo project the final infection numbers in Bangladesh we used the SIR mathematical model. Confirmed cases of infection data were obtained from Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) of Bangladesh ResultsThe confirmed cases in Bangladesh follow our SIR model prediction cases. By the end of April the predicted cases of infection will be 17450 to 21616 depending on the control strategies. Due to large population and socio-economic characteristics, we assumed 60% social distancing and lockdown can be possible. Assuming that, the predicated final size of infections will be 3782558 on the 92th day from the first infections and steadily decrease to zero infection after 193 days ConclusionTo estimate the impact of social distancing we assumed eight different scenarios, the predicted results confirmed the positive impact of this type of control strategies suggesting that by strict social distancing and lockdown, COVID-19 infection can be under control and then the infection cases will steadily decrease down to zero.

Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

“…Our results also show that the impact of a COVID-19 vaccination program is highly dependent on the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission rates and these affect the effective reproductive number of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Thus, it is important to educate the population about the importance of maintaining non-pharmaceutical control interventions such as the use of facial masks and physical distancing [ 9 , 13 , 41 , 42 , 57 ].…”

“…There are many articles related to the use of mathematical modeling in combination with computational and statistical techniques to study the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus [ 7 , 16 , 41 , 42 , 49 – 54 ]. Some mathematical models used the Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) mathematical model [ 55 – 57 ]. Previous studies have used susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) type models [ 7 , 58 , 59 ].…”

Mathematical modeling to study the impact of immigration on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study for Venezuela

“…Mathematical models, and computational and statistical techniques have been used to study the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus under various scenarios, including interventions, vaccination and mutations ( Anggriani et al, 2021 , Bastos et al, 2021 , Kucharski et al, 2020 , Gupta et al, 2021 , Lemos-Paião et al, 2020 , Stutt et al, 2020 , Ferguson et al, 2020 , Dobrovolny, 2020 , Kuniya, 2020 , Zhong et al, 2020 , Martinez-Rodriguez et al, 2021 , Gonzalez-Parra et al, 2021 , Riyapan et al, 2021 , Savi et al, 2020 ). Several of these models are SIR-type or SEIR-type ( Postnikov, 2020 , Barmparis and Tsironis, 2020 , Rahman et al, 2020a , Chaves et al, 2020 , Grauer et al, 2020 , Hou et al, 2020 , Matrajt et al, 2020 ). Other mathematical models used curve fitting of growth models to the data.…”

Critical Analysis of the Possible Determining Factors of COVID-19 Epidemiological Trend in Bangladesh: A Review

“…Epidemiological models like susceptible, infected and recovered (SIR) is a classic closed compartment model to predict disease trajectory 4 . After the initial spread of COVID-19 several SIR and modified SIR based prediction have been reported [5][6][7][8] and classic SIR model is claimed to show less complexity and better prediction compared to modified models 9 . These predictions are not always perfectly accurate as disease progression is determined by multiple factors.…”

“…In a study, SIR based prediction of COVID-19 in Bangladesh was done with different percentage of possible social distancing intervention 5 . Based on another survey and practical scenarios it was speculated that around 60.0% social distancing could be possible in Bangladesh 10 .…”