Impact of climate variability on coffee yield in India—with a micro-level case study using long-term coffee yield data of humid tropical Kerala

Jayakumar, M.; Rajavel, M.; Surendran, U.; Gopinath, Girish; Ramamoorthy, K.

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2101-2

Cited by 30 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Of the two, robusta is the most heat tolerant and ‘robust’ and so thought more resistant to climate change (Camargo, 2010; Pohlan & Janssens, 2010). Robusta's higher heat tolerance could make it a bulwark against the impacts of climate change on global coffee production—as temperatures rise, farmers could switch to robusta to help maintain production (Garavito, Montagnon, Guyot, & Bertrand, 2016; Jayakumar, Rajavel, Surendran, Gopinath, & Ramamoorthy, 2017; Läderach et al, 2017). However, if this is not the case and robusta is more sensitive to temperature than currently thought, then global coffee production could decline markedly under climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Current estimates of optimal climatic growing conditions for arabica and robusta are founded on historical botanical explorations of the 16th century onwards and are solely based on the location of origin, which, for robusta, is the Congo basin with a mean temperature range of 22–30°C (Matiello, 1998; Willson, 1999). Based on this, the current and often cited optimal mean annual temperature range of robusta is estimated to be between 22 and 26 or 22 and 30°C (DaMatta, Avila, Cardoso, Martins, & Ramalho, 2018; DaMatta & Ramalho, 2006; Jayakumar, Rajavel, & Surendran, 2016; Jayakumar et al, 2017; Martins et al, 2016; Matiello, 1998; Rodrigues et al, 2016; Willson, 1999). There are currently no estimates for optimal minimum and maximum temperatures during robusta's more climatically sensitive flowering and growing phases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Not so robust: Robusta coffee production is highly sensitive to temperature

Kath

Byrareddy

Craparo

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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Coffea canephora (robusta coffee) is the most heat-tolerant and 'robust' coffee species and therefore considered more resistant to climate change than other types of coffee production. However, the optimum production range of robusta has never been quantified, with current estimates of its optimal mean annual temperature range (22-30°C) based solely on the climatic conditions of its native range in the Congo basin, Central Africa. Using 10 years of yield observations from 798 farms across South East Asia coupled with high-resolution precipitation and temperature data, we used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to quantify robusta's optimal temperature range for production.Our climate-based models explained yield variation well across the study area with a cross-validated mean R 2 = .51. We demonstrate that robusta has an optimal temperature below 20.5°C (or a mean minimum/maximum of ≤16.2/24.1°C), which is markedly lower, by 1.5-9°C than current estimates. In the middle of robusta's currently assumed optimal range (mean annual temperatures over 25.1°C), coffee yields are 50% lower compared to the optimal mean of ≤20.5°C found here. During the growing season, every 1°C increase in mean minimum/maximum temperatures above 16.2/24.1°C corresponded to yield declines of ~14% or 350-460 kg/ha (95% credible interval). Our results suggest that robusta coffee is far more sensitive to temperature than previously thought. Current assessments, based on robusta having an optimal temperature range over 22°C, are likely overestimating its suitable production range and its ability to contribute to coffee production as temperatures increase under climate change. Robusta supplies 40% of the world's coffee, but its production potential could decline considerably as temperatures increase under climate change, jeopardizing a multi-billion dollar coffee industry and the livelihoods of millions of farmers. K E Y W O R D Sclimate interactions, coffee supply, coffee yield, horticulture, minimum temperature, night temperature, tropical agriculture

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Not so robust: Robusta coffee production is highly sensitive to temperature

Kath

Byrareddy

Craparo

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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“…Intensification of coffee production has been shown to exacerbate negative impacts of climate change (Lin et al 2008). Furthermore, it has been shown that arabica coffee has already declined in Tanzania highlands and in India, owing to increasing temperatures (Craparo et al 2015;Jayakumar et al 2017). Robusta coffee yield may respond better to increasing temperatures than arabica coffee, although robusta coffee yield depends on the interaction of rainfall, temperature and phenological stage (Jayakumar et al 2017;Kath et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, it has been shown that arabica coffee has already declined in Tanzania highlands and in India, owing to increasing temperatures (Craparo et al 2015;Jayakumar et al 2017). Robusta coffee yield may respond better to increasing temperatures than arabica coffee, although robusta coffee yield depends on the interaction of rainfall, temperature and phenological stage (Jayakumar et al 2017;Kath et al 2020). Although water supply is important for coffee production, it is difficult to know how future change in rainfall pattern will impact coffee production as the consolidated models of rainfall changes have a high degree of uncertainty given disparity in projections between individual models (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of shade trees on robusta coffee growth, yield and quality. A meta-analysis

Piato

Lefort

Subía

et al. 2020

Agron. Sustain. Dev.

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Productivity of coffee plantations is threatened by both climate change and decreasing revenues of coffee growers. Using shade trees might protect against temperature variability, erosion and excessive radiation but there may be trade-offs in productivity and quality. While impacts of shade trees on arabica (Coffea arabica) have been reviewed, a global synthesis on robusta (Coffea canephora) coffee is lacking. We assessed how shade affects robusta growth and productivity, and what are the interactions and trade-offs. We conducted a systematic literature search in Web of Science and CAB Abstracts on 16 December 2019. Thirty papers fulfilled our inclusion criteria of being experimental studies on the impact of overstory trees with approximately half being from Brazil or India. Shade improved robusta tree growth and yield with some contrasting effects on physicochemical and biochemical properties. Shade (> 30%) was associated with reduced beverage quality. Significant interactions between shade and location, rainfall level and robusta clone were found. Among the clones tested, 06V, C153, LB1, GG229 and JM2 showed a higher productivity and growth (from + 17 to + 280%) under moderate shade (41–65%). This is the first meta-analysis of the effects of shade on robusta coffee. By synthesizing data from different studies, we highlight for the first time that the effect of shade on robusta coffee depends on tree age. Shade had positive impacts on older robusta trees (mean of 16 years), while the impact of shade on younger trees was either insignificant or negative. We highlight the importance of both clone type and tree ages. Research gaps included a lack of knowledge on the effects of shade with respect to coffee and shade tree age as well as interactive effects. More in-depth studies are needed to understand the mechanisms of how shade trees affect robusta coffee.

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“…The influence of climate is increasingly felt in the Indonesian coffee production system because most Indonesian coffee is cultivated on marginal land, arid land, which is vulnerable to changes in abiotic environments such as climate (Gunathilaka;Smart;Fleming, 2018). The effect of climate variability on coffee production has been reported in various studies, including (Dula, 2018;Jayakumar;Rajavel;Surendran 2017;Pham;Reardon-Smith;Cockfield, 2019;Tucker;Eakin;Castellanos, 2010). Climate variability was also reported to have contributed to annual coffee crop production (Camargo, 2010;Chengappa;Devika, 2017;Pham;Reardon-Smith;Cockfield, 2019;Zullo et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

The impacts of climate variability on coffee yield in five indonesian coffee production centers

Sarvina

June

Sutjahjo

et al. 2021

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Coffee is an annual crop sensitive to climate variability. Most Indonesian coffee is cultivated on marginal lands that are vulnerable to environmental changes, including climate. Indonesia's climate variability is influenced by several factors, including the monsoon, local aspects, and global climate oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is crucial to identify the impacts of climate variability on both the production and the economy to develop adaptative measures. This study aims to determine the effects of global climate variability, namely ENSO and IOD, on coffee production in several Indonesian production centers. It uses annual coffee production data in the five major production centers in Indonesia. The ENSO indicators used in this study were the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in the Nino 3.4 region and the IOD indicator in the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The anomaly analysis approach between neutral years and the extreme ENSO and between normal and IOD extreme phases were applied in this study. The results showed that the effects of ENSO and IOD were different in each region. The highest decline in production occurred in the La-Nina year in almost all production centers. The decline in output in the La-Nina year ranged from 6 to 22%. Meanwhile, the IOD that had a decreasing effect on production was positive IOD with a decrease ranging from 1 to 15%.

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Impact of climate variability on coffee yield in India—with a micro-level case study using long-term coffee yield data of humid tropical Kerala

Cited by 30 publications

References 15 publications

Not so robust: Robusta coffee production is highly sensitive to temperature

Not so robust: Robusta coffee production is highly sensitive to temperature

Effects of shade trees on robusta coffee growth, yield and quality. A meta-analysis

The impacts of climate variability on coffee yield in five indonesian coffee production centers

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