Impact of Climate Change on the Annual Water Balance in a Humid Climate

Abstract

Lithuania and Bosnia and Herzegovina are considered as countries with high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity to cope with climate change. The entire territory of these countries is characterized by the warming trend, with positive trends in both the maximum and the minimum temperatures throughout the year. The increase in air temperature has resulted in change of evapotranspiration and mean annual water balance values. These countries are also frequently faced with an occurrence of severe droughts and heavy floods. The main purpose of this study was to determine and compare the severity of changes in mean annual water balance for two humid climatic zones, in order to understand how different areas of similar climate characteristics react to climate change and to analyze the significance of their influence. Monthly weather data from two weather stations, Kaunas (Lithuania) and Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina), for the time period of 30 years (1988 -2017) were used to determine and analyze the mean annual water balance. The results indicate that climate change has a different effect on the water balance of these two humid areas. Both locations showed a positive trend of reference evapotranspiration, with an increase of 1.450 mm year -1 to 1.503 mm year -1 . However, the total runoff and soil moisture deficit are decreasing in Kaunas (-0.480 mm and -2.114 mm year -1 , respectively), while they are increasing in Sarajevo (0.492 mm and 0.485 mm year -1 , respectively).

Changes in the Water Balance of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a Result of Climate Change

“…AET can be a measure of agricultural water productivity, these results indicate an improvement of general conditions for agricultural production in the central -mountainous region of BiH. Thus, Climate change may have a positive effect on the yield in this area (Čadro et al, 2018;Radusin et al, 2016), and in same time negative effect on the rest of the country (north and south). Such positive effect also found in similar studies, especially for the northern Europe (Jacob et al, 2018), while the rest of Europe, especially the Mediterranean region, will mostly be negatively affected (Behrens et al, 2010).…”

“…Increase of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and soil moisture deficit (SMD) was found for Banja Luka, Tuzla, Zenica and Mostar (Čadro et al, 2016). Increasing trends in reference evapotranspiration, runoff and soil moisture deficit and decreasing trend in the amount of the snow were found for the Sarajevo located in central part of BiH (Čadro et al, 2018;.…”

Factibility of growing basil as an alternative crop for adaptation to climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina

“…The above observations are in accordance with the predictions of Vucijak et al (2014), who consider that in the future in Bosnia and Herzegovina, due to climate change, there will be an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events such as an increase in temperature, lack of precipitation, and an increase in floods. The assumption is that due to such climate changes, the yields of traditional agricultural crops will decrease (Cadro et al, 2018). On the other hand, due to the increase in temperature, optimal conditions are created for the growth and development of plants originating from warm climates.…”

“…However, our research showed that some benefits could be reaped in practice. Despite the current and expected future increases in global temperature due to climate change (Cadro et al, 2018), the conditions in this country are good for basil growth (temperatures are still not above the optimum range) (Gavrić et al, 2021). Basil can grow under the agro-ecological conditions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and thus be regarded as an alternative to species that are sensitive to high summer temperatures.…”

“…In addition to the increase in temperature, climate change also causes a decrease in summer rainfall amounts, severe drought, and an increase in the number of days with hail outbreaks (Dejanovic et al, 2019). Bosnia and Herzegovina has a similar climate, and in the future, a larger number of extreme climate events are expected (Cadro et al, 2018;Trbic et al, 2021). In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the future impacts of climate change include an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, temperature rise, lack of precipitation, increase in flooding, changing agricultural landscapes, involving crop yield failure, and changes in habitat composition and species distribution, richness, and diversity (Vucijak et al, 2014).…”