Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

Abstract

The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

Impact of Climate Change on the Annual Water Balance in a Humid Climate

“…This condition is followed by increasing trends in soil moisture deficit and drought occurrence. The similar results are found in Spain (Espadafor et al, 2011), Iran (Amirataee et al, 2016), Montenegro (Knežević et al, 2018), Slovenia (Zupanc & Pintar, 2004) Brazil (Silva et al, 2016) and Togo (Djaman & Komla, 2015). Likewise, many authors reported the increased trend in the annual value of potential evapotranspiration (Čadro et al, 2016), soil water deficit Žurovec & Čadro, 2010Cammalleri et al, 2016) and drought severity (Vlahinić et al, 2001;Stankūnavičius, 2009;Žurovec et al, 2011;Hodžić et al, 2013;Taparauskienė & Lukševičiūtė, 2015;Čadro Sabrija et al, 2017;Merl, 2017) in humid areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Lithuania.…”