Impact of climate change on the distribution range and niche dynamics of Himalayan birch, a typical treeline species in Himalayas

Hamid, Maroof; Khuroo, Anzar A.; Charles, Bipin; Ahmad, Rameez; Singh, Chandra Prakash; Aravind, N. A.

doi:10.1007/s10531-018-1641-8

Cited by 100 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 94 publications

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“…We categorised the final ensemble model into four categories following Hamid et al . 103 and Ahmad et al . 104 as: Not suitable (0.0–0.25) coded as blue colour, Low suitable (0.25–0.50) coded as white, Moderately suitable (0.50–0.75) coded as light red and Highly suitable (0.75–1.00) coded as red colour.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Ahmad

Khuroo

Charles

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

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In an era of climate change, biological invasions by alien species represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change. The present study, using an ensemble modelling approach, has mapped current and future global distribution of the invasive Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) and predicted the invasion hotspots under climate change. The current potential distribution of Ox-eye Daisy coincides well with the actual distribution records, thereby indicating robustness of our model. The model predicted a global increase in the suitable habitat for the potential invasion of this species under climate change. Oceania was shown to be the high-risk region to the potential invasion of this species under both current and future climate change scenarios. The results revealed niche conservatism for Australia and Northern America, but contrastingly a niche shift for Africa, Asia, Oceania and Southern America. The global distribution modelling and risk assessment of Ox-eye Daisy has immediate implications in mitigating its invasion impacts under climate change, as well as predicting the global invasion hotspots and developing region-specific invasion management strategies. Interestingly, the contrasting patterns of niche dynamics shown by this invasive plant species provide novel insights towards disentangling the different operative mechanisms underlying the process of biological invasions at the global scale.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Ahmad

Khuroo

Charles

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

Self Cite

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“…For each species, we used ten modeling algorithms embedded in the biomod2 package: generalized linear models (GLM), boosted regression trees (GBM), generalized additive model (GAM), classification tree analysis (CTA), artificial neural network (ANN), surface range envelop or BIOCLIM (SRE), flexible discriminant analysis (FDA), multiple adaptive regression splines (MARS), random forests (RF), and maximum entropy (MaxEnt). These algorithms were chosen because they have shown good ability to predict current species distribution and have been widely used in ecological modeling (Hamid et al, ; Lin & Chiu, ; Thuiller, ). Combining the predictions of individual algorithms to make ensemble prediction provides results that are more robust and also enables the assessment of the uncertainty generated from the modeling procedure.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For each species, we used ten modeling The standard deviation from the mean AUC of all models (10 modeling algorithms × 10 replicates). good ability to predict current species distribution and have been widely used in ecological modeling (Hamid et al, 2019;Lin & Chiu, 2019;Thuiller, 2003). Combining the predictions of individual algorithms to make ensemble prediction provides results that are more robust and also enables the assessment of the uncertainty generated from the modeling procedure.…”

Section: Calibration and Evaluation Of Species Distribution Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of four dominant dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin, northwest China

Eziz

Zhang

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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AimDryland ecosystems are exceedingly sensitive to climate change. Desertification induced by both climate changes and human activities seriously threatens dryland vegetation. However, the impact of climate change on distribution of dryland plant species has not been well documented. Here, we studied the potential distribution of four representative dryland plant species (Haloxylon ammodendron, Anabasis aphylla, Calligonum mongolicum, and Populus euphratica) under current and future climate scenarios in a temperate desert region, aiming to improve our understanding of the responses of dryland plant species to climate change and provide guidance for dryland conservation and afforestation.LocationJunggar Basin, a large desert region in northwestern China.MethodsOccurrence data of the studied species were collected from an extensive field investigation of 2,516 sampling sites in the Junggar Basin. Ensemble species distribution models using 10 algorithms were developed and used to predict the potential distribution of each studied species under current and future climate scenarios.Result Haloxylon ammodendron and A. aphylla were likely to lose most of their current suitable habitats under future climate scenarios, while C. mongolicum and P. euphratica were likely to expand their ranges or remain relatively stationary. Variable importance evaluation showed that the most important climate variables influencing species distribution differed across the studied species. These results may be explained by the different ecophysiological characteristics and adaptation strategies to the environment of the four studied species.Main conclusionsWe explored the responses of the representative dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin in northwestern China. The different changes in suitability of different species imply that policymakers may need to reconsider the selection and combination of the afforestation species used in this area. This study can provide valuable reference for the management and conservation of dryland ecosystems under future climate change scenarios.

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“…The magnitude of advancement was relatively more along elevation and longitude gradients indicating that the treeline species potential distribution in HKH is climate driven. Hamid et al (2019) modeled the ensemble distribution of B. utilis using the Biomod2 package for present and future (RCP's 2.6-8.5 covering 2050 and 2070). They reported that the most suitable area for B. utilis could shift towards the eastern parts of Himalayas, with suitability declining towards the western parts.…”

Section: Species Distribution Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent advances in biodiversity and climate change studies in India

Behera

Sharma

2019

Biodivers Conserv

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Biodiversity is continually transformed by a changing climate. Conditions change across the face of the planet at variable pace leading to rearrangements of biological associations. The carbon cycle and the water cycle, arguably the two most important large-scale processes for life on Earth; depend on biodiversity at genetic, species, and ecosystem levels and can yield feedbacks to climate change. India is no less affected through this feedback mechanism of climate change and had shown its cause and effect association in several studies. In this special issue we present 25 papers contributed by ca 90 authors from India and elsewhere those discuss wide-ranging aspects of biodiversity and climate change. These contributions are based on presentations made at the 2nd International Workshop on Biodiversity and Climate Change (BDCC-2018) held on 24-27-February 2018 at the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India. The papers are arranged in six sections: Plant (and lichen) Diversity and Climate; Plant Diversity Pattern and Environmental Heterogeneity; Forest Biomass and Carbon; Plant Diversity and Remote Sensing; Species Distribution Modelling; and Animal Diversity, Soil and Biotechnology. Included amongst the contributions are ones using a national database on plant diversity, describing vegetation carbon and biomass sequestration patterns, utilizing remote sensing to assess plant diversity proxies and conservation prioritization, employing species distribution models to analyze climate change scenarios, using acoustics indices for rapid assessment of biodiversity, addressing the soil micro-biome and environmental stress on medicinal plants.

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Impact of climate change on the distribution range and niche dynamics of Himalayan birch, a typical treeline species in Himalayas

Cited by 100 publications

References 94 publications

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Responses of four dominant dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin, northwest China

Recent advances in biodiversity and climate change studies in India

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