Impact of climate change on volcanic processes: current understanding and future challenges

Abstract

The impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate are increasingly well understood, but the mirror question of how climate changes affect volcanic systems and processes, which we term “climate-volcano impacts”, remains understudied. Accelerating research on this topic is critical in view of rapid climate change driven by anthropogenic activities. Over the last two decades, we have improved our understanding of how mass distribution on the Earth’s surface, in particular changes in ice and water distribution linked to glacial cycles, affects mantle melting, crustal magmatic processing and eruption rates. New hypotheses on the impacts of climate change on eruption processes have also emerged, including how eruption style and volcanic plume rise are affected by changing surface and atmospheric conditions, and how volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle, radiative forcing and climate impacts are modulated by background climate conditions. Future improvements in past climate reconstructions and current climate observations, volcanic eruption records and volcano monitoring, and numerical models all have a role in advancing our understanding of climate-volcano impacts. Important mechanisms remain to be explored, such as how changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation will affect the volcanic ash life cycle. Fostering a holistic and interdisciplinary approach to climate-volcano impacts is critical to gain a full picture of how ongoing climate changes may affect the environmental and societal impacts of volcanic activity.

Climate Projections Very Likely Underestimate Future Volcanic Forcing and Its Climatic Effects

“…Our work highlights how the high level of uncertainty on volcanic forcing affects climate projections. For the same future eruption scenario, the volcanic effects on climate will also vary between SSP scenarios owing to climate‐volcano feedbacks (e.g., Aubry et al., 2022; Fasullo et al., 2018; Hopcroft et al., 2018), which need to be quantified.…”

Climate Projections Very Likely Underestimate Future Volcanic Forcing and its Climatic Effects

“…Our work highlights how the high level of uncertainty on volcanic forcing affects climate projections. For the same future eruption scenario, the volcanic effects on climate will also vary between SSP scenarios owing to climate-volcano feedbacks (e.g., Hopcroft et al, 2017;Fasullo et al, 2018;Aubry et al, 2022), which need to be quantified.…”

Huge volcanic eruptions: time to prepare

“…Thanks to changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation caused by climate change, a large-magnitude eruption in the tropics could cause 60% more cooling in the next century compared with today 6 . The frequency of eruptions could also increase as geophysical forces on the planet's surface shift because of ice melt, changes in precipitation and sea-level rise 7 .…”