Impact of climate change on the water resources of Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Hailemariam, Kinfe

doi:10.3354/cr012091

Cited by 78 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The model was then run with this adjusted climate time series. This is a simple but valid and widely used method of performing a climate impact assessment using GCM data (e.g., Hailemariam 1999;Guan 2009). Newer and more complex methods will be applied in future studies; however, this short impact analysis was performed to demonstrate the potential utility of the model.…”

Section: Mosquito Response To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model

Morin

Comrie

2010

Int J Biometeorol

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Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model (P < 0.0001). Dry environments in southern California produce different mosquito population trends than moist locations in Florida. Florida and California mosquito populations are generally temperature-limited in winter. In California, locations are water-limited through much of the year. Using future climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions.

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Section: Mosquito Response To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model

Morin

Comrie

2010

Int J Biometeorol

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“…Much focus has been placed on finding empirical evidence of climate change in Ethiopia (e.g. Hailemarian 1999, Kovats et al 2001, Legesse et al 2003, Steffen et al 2003. Monthly rainfall data are as used in Conway (2000), with updates to 2002.…”

Section: Climate Data and Quality Controlmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia

2004

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The rationale of this paper is to investigate peoples' perception of climate variability, climate change and drought frequency and compare it with measurements of rainfall variability and anomalies in northern Ethiopia. Statistical analysis of rainfall chronologies was performed and contrasted with qualitative data collected through a survey and questionnaires. Fieldwork studies showed that local authorities, farmers and pastoralists perceived regional climate to have changed during the last few decades. Farmers explained that they have been changing their farming strategies by shifting to more drought-resistant crops as well as to a shorter agricultural calendar. They attributed this to a loss of the spring rains since 'their father's time' (20-30 yr ago), as well as a shorter main summer wet period. The recent 2002 drought appears to have confirmed peoples' perceptions that there has been a shift in climate towards more unfavourable conditions. However, rainfall measurements do not show a downward trend in rainfall. Reasons for divergence between perceptions and rainfall measurements were explored. Some can be associated with changes in peoples' need for rainfall or be linked to various environmental changes which cause reduced water availability. Others can be related to the paucity of available daily data in a dense station network which could better support peoples' perceptions of change. In exploring these reasons, focus was given to the disagreement between optimal rainfall (i.e. amount and distribution sufficient for crop or pasture growth) and normal rainfall (i.e. the long-term statistical mean and its variation). KEY WORDS: Climate change · Rainfall · Perceptions · EthiopiaResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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“…The reduction in precipitation projected by some GCMs for the Sahelian and southern African coun-tries, if accompanied by higher inter-annual variability, could be highly detrimental to the hydrological balance of the continent and water-dependent activities (Hailemariam 1999). A drop in the water level in reservoirs and rivers could adversely affect the quality of water by concentrating sewage and industrial effluents, thereby exacerbating water-borne diseases and reducing the quality and quantity of fresh water available for domestic use (Strzepek and Kaczmarek 1996).…”

Section: Water Resourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untitled

Dixon¹,

Smith

Guill

2003

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

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Abstract. Donor countries are providing financial and technical support for global climate change country studies to help African nations meet their reporting needs under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Technical assistance to complete vulnerability and adaptation assessments includes training of analysts, sharing of contemporary tools (e.g. simulation models), data and assessment techniques, information-sharing workshops and an international exchange programme for analysts. This chapter summarizes 14 African country studies (Botswana, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, the Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe) assessing vulnerabilities to global climate change and identifying adaptation options. The analysis revealed that the participating African countries are vulnerable to global climate change in more than one of the following socio-economic sectors: coastal resources, agriculture, grasslands and livestock, water resources, forests, wildlife, and human health. This vulnerability is exacerbated by widespread poverty, recurrent droughts, inequitable land distribution, environmental degradation, natural resource mismanagement and dependence on rain-fed agriculture. A range of practical adaptation options were identified in key socio-economic sectors of the African nations analysed. However, underdeveloped human and institutional capacity, as well as the absence of adequate infrastructure, renders many traditional coping strategies (rooted in political and economic stability) ineffective or insufficient. Future African country studies should be more closely coordinated with development of national climate change action plans

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Impact of climate change on the water resources of Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Cited by 78 publications

References 4 publications

Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model

Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model

Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia

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