Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic

Mudryk, Lawrence; Dawson, Jackie; Howell, Stephen E. L.; Derksen, Chris; Zagon, Tom; Brady, Michael S.

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01087-6

Cited by 90 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The reduction in MYI area within the Beaufort Sea corresponds to an increase in shipping activity (Pizzolato et al., 2016), particularly pleasure crafts that are accessing the Northwest Passage (Dawson et al., 2018). Shipping in the Beaufort Sea is proposed to continue to increase as the shipping season length continues to increase (Mudryk et al., 2021). However, the continued replenishment of MYI during winter will maintain some level of risk associated with hazardous ice (Barber et al., 2014).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing Multiyear Sea Ice Loss in the Beaufort Sea: A New Export Pathway for the Diminishing Multiyear Ice Cover of the Arctic Ocean

Babb

Galley

Howell

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Multiyear sea ice (MYI) comprises the thickest and most robust sea ice in the Arctic; however, its extent is declining as the Arctic transitions to a predominantly seasonal ice cover (Figure 1; Kwok, 2018). During the 1950s and 1960s, MYI covered the vast majority of the Arctic Ocean (∼5.5 × 10 6 km 2 ; Nghiem et al., 2007) and grew thicker as it circulated through the anticyclonic Beaufort Gyre for up to and beyond 10 years (Rigor & Wallace, 2004). Within the Gyre, MYI is transported from the central Arctic, where the thickest and oldest ice is compressed against the northern coast of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA; Bourke & Garret, 1987;Kwok, 2015), through the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, then onward to the Eastern Arctic. From there MYI is circulated northwards and either retained and recirculated within the Gyre or entrained in the Transpolar Drift Stream and exported through the Fram Strait (Figure 1). The retention of MYI within the Gyre is a critical factor in the mass balance of the Arctic Ocean, as it redistributes MYI throughout the Arctic, maintaining the pan-Arctic distribution of MYI observed throughout the second half of the twentieth century (Nghiem et al., 2007) and the start of the observational record in the 1980s (Figure 1a; Maslanik et al., 2011). MYI survival through the Beaufort Sea is key to the process of MYI redistribution because the Beaufort serves as a conduit connecting the central Arctic to the Eastern Arctic. Maslanik et al. (2011) showed that between 1981 and 2005, 93% of MYI in the Beaufort Sea survived through summer, which thereby fostered the redistribution of MYI through the Gyre.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing Multiyear Sea Ice Loss in the Beaufort Sea: A New Export Pathway for the Diminishing Multiyear Ice Cover of the Arctic Ocean

Babb

Galley

Howell

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…This definition reflects the view that certain coastal regions may retain small amounts of landfast sea ice even after the open Arctic Sea is ice free (Wang and Overland, 2009). However, the intractability of melting landfast ice remains an open issue of research, and there is much uncertainty about how resilient such a circumscribed "Last Ice" refuge will be to further warming (Cooley et al, 2020;Mudryk et al, 2021;Schweiger et al, 2021). Reflecting this uncertainty, while we also consider the usual definition of a nearly ice-free Arctic (10 6 km 2 ) for SIA and SIE, we do not account for any poosible structural shift in near-zero sea-ice dynamics.…”

Section: Carbon-trend Fits and Forecasts In Ice-carbon Spacementioning

confidence: 99%

When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume

Diebold¹,

Rudebusch²,

Goebel³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting "carbon-trend" and "time-trend" projections are mutually consistent and predict an effectively ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower emissions path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.

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“…(2021) was limited to a scenario with extremely high radiative forcing (SSP585). Another recent study assessed the local navigability in the Canadian Arctic under different global warming hypotheses (Mudryk et al., 2021), but navigation metrics including optimal trans‐Arctic shipping routes (OASR, i.e., the most time‐saving routes), ST, navigable days (ND) and navigable windows (NW), throughout the Arctic were still lacking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors

Min

Yang

Chen

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The rapid Arctic warming is causing sharp declines in sea ice extent (SIE) and volume, and this will tend to continue (Kwok, 2018;Liu et al., 2013;Stroeve & Notz, 2018), indeed, the first and second lowest SIE were detected by space-borne measurements in 2012 and 2020 (NSIDC, 2020;Witze, 2020). In particular, it is projected that there will be likely at least one ice-free summer before 2050 in the very recent IPCC AR6 report (IPCC, 2021). The retreat of sea ice makes Arctic shipping possible. Major savings in navigational distances can be achieved compared with traditional routes. Specifically, travel distance can be reduced by approximately 40% via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) compared to the Suez Canal (Rotterdam to Yokohama) (Liu & Kronbak, 2010;Schøyen & Bråthen, 2011); as a result, sailing time (ST), fuel consumption and shipping emissions can be significantly reduced (Browse et al., 2013;Melia et al., 2016;Schøyen & Bråthen, 2011). The high economic benefit of trans-Arctic shipping routes has spurred great interest from policymakers and communities (Brigham, 2011;Stephenson et al., 2011). In practice, the number of ships navigating in the Arctic has increased since 2010, as has the navigational distance (Eguíluz et al., 2016;Gunnarsson, 2021;PAME, 2020). Here we use the Chinese research ships and commercial ships as an example to give an instanced picture of the operational voyages in the Arctic. All the sailing paths of research ships and merchant ships (2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020) are shown in Figure S1 in Supporting Information S1. In total, 42 merchant voyages operated via the NSR from 2013 to 2020. The research ship, Xuelong (red solid line), has successfully sailed through the Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) with a real-time sea ice forecast service from the Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System in the summer of 2017 (Mu et al., 2019). The

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Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic

Cited by 90 publications

References 49 publications

Increasing Multiyear Sea Ice Loss in the Beaufort Sea: A New Export Pathway for the Diminishing Multiyear Ice Cover of the Arctic Ocean

Increasing Multiyear Sea Ice Loss in the Beaufort Sea: A New Export Pathway for the Diminishing Multiyear Ice Cover of the Arctic Ocean

When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume

The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors

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