Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts

Busker, Tim; Moel, Hans de; Hurk, Bart van den; Aerts, Jeroen

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…A number of studies in the region have also focused on the impact-based forecasts (e.g., Boult et al, 2020;Mwangi et al, 2021;Busker et al, 2023;Mitheu et al, 2023a), however the production of operational impact-based forecasts is still limited over the region.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa

Gudoshava,

Otieno,

Koech

et al. 2024

Front. Clim.

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The Greater Horn of Africa is prone to extreme climatic conditions, thus, making climate services increasingly important in supporting decision-making processes across a range of climate sensitive sectors. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the recent advances, gaps and challenges in the provision of climate services over the region, for each of the components of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The study explores various milestones that have been achieved toward climate service delivery. The achievements include improvement of station network coverage, and enhancing the capacity of member states to utilize various tools in data analysis and generate routine climate products. The advancement in science, and availability of High-Performance Computing has made it possible for forecast information to be provided from nowcasting to seasonal timescales. Moreover, operationalizing of the objective forecasting method for monthly and seasonal forecasts has made it possible to translate tercile forecasts for applications models. Additionally, innovative approaches to user engagement through co-production, communication channels, user-friendly interfaces, and dissemination of climate information have also been developed. Despite the significant progress that has been made in the provision of climate services, there are still many challenges and gaps that need to be overcome in order to ensure that these services are effectively meeting the needs of users. The research of the science underpinning climate variability, capacity building and stakeholder engagement, as well as improved data management and quality control processes are some of the gaps that exist over the region. Additionally, communication and dissemination of climate information, including timely warnings and risk communication, require improvement to reach diverse user groups effectively. Addressing these challenges will require strengthened partnerships, increased investment in capacity building, enhanced collaboration between the climate information producers and stakeholders, and the development of user-friendly climate products. Bridging these gaps will foster greater resilience to climate-related hazards and disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa and support sustainable development in the region.

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Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa

Gudoshava,

Otieno,

Koech

et al. 2024

Front. Clim.

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“…Also forecasting of drought impacts should be further developed to better anticipate societal and ecological impacts of drought. Some recent papers are taking steps in this direction, including longer-term processes, dynamic vulnerability and memory effects into impact forecasting (Boult et al, 2022;Busker et al, 2023). Operational drought impact forecasting is, however, still very limited (Shyrokaya et al, 2023).…”

Section: Practice Outlookmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Van Loon,

Kchouk,

Matanó

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception and management of droughts and their impacts is often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydro-eco-social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different time scales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately; and then study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River Basin in the US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River Basin in Northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; and High resilience, big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought pre-conditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we argue for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase social and institutional memory to better deal with the complex hydro-eco-social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation.

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