Impact assessment of climate change on the hydrological response of a snow and glacier melt runoff dominated Himalayan river

Singh, Pratap; Kumar, Naresh

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(96)03142-3

Cited by 219 publications

(119 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

109

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These findings clearly suggest that the non-uniform climatic changes on an intra-seasonal scale have distinct impact on the discharge components. Hence, uniformly perturbing various input parameters throughout the annual course (which yield physically inconsistent changes) as typically adopted in the hypothetically devised climate change scenarios [44,91] will project superficial changes in the timings of the runoff components and in the overall seasonality of the runoff regime.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Hasson

2016

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB) suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime and the subsequent water availability under changing climate has yet been understood only indistinctly. Here, the future water availability from the UIB is presented under both observed and projected-though likely but contrasting-climate change scenarios. Continuation of prevailing climatic changes suggests decreased and delayed glacier melt but increased and early snowmelt, leading to reduction in the overall water availability and profound changes in the overall seasonality of the hydrological regime. Hence, initial increases in the water availability due to enhanced glacier melt under typically projected warmer climates, and then abrupt decrease upon vanishing of the glaciers, as reported earlier, is only true given the UIB starts following uniformly the global warming signal. Such discordant future water availability findings caution the impact assessment communities to consider the relevance of likely (near-future) climate change scenarios-consistent to prevalent climatic change patterns-in order to adequately support the water resource planning in Pakistan.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Hasson

2016

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, PDD models do not capture daily and seasonal runoff variability well (Hock, 1999), in part because degreeday factors can vary considerably in space and time (e.g., Hock, 1999;Singh and Kumar, 1997). Modified degree-day models that include solar radiation (e.g., Hock, 1999;Pellicciotti et al, 2005) capture daily cycles better, as well as spatial variations in melt resulting from topographic influences (i.e., effects of shading, slope, and aspect).…”

Section: −1mentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier Meltwater Contributions and Glaciometeorological Regime of the Illecillewaet River Basin, British Columbia, Canada

Hirose

Marshall

2013

Atmosphere-Ocean

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study characterizes the meteorological parameters influencing glacier runoff and quantifies recent glacier contributions to streamflow in the Illecillewaet River basin, British Columbia. The Illecillewaet is a glacierized catchment that feeds the Columbia River, with terrain, glacial cover, and topographic relief that are typical of Columbia River headwaters basins in southwestern Canada. Meteorological and mass balance data collected on Illecillewaet Glacier are used to develop and constrain a distributed model for glacier melt, based on temperature and absorbed solar radiation. The melt model is applied to all of the glaciers in the Illecillewaet River basin for the summers of 2009 to 2011. Modelled glacier runoff for the three years has an average value of 112 ± 12 × 10 6 m 3 , approximately 10% of Illecillewaet River yields for 2009 to 2011. Glaciers contributed 25% to August flows for the three years. On average, 66% of modelled glacial discharge is derived from the seasonal snowpack, with the remaining 34% resulting from the melting of glacier ice and firn. For the lowest flow year in the basin, 2009, snow and ice melt from glaciers in the basin contributed 14% and 33%, respectively; 81% of the August glacier runoff is derived from glacier storage (ice and firn). Climate sensitivity studies for Illecillewaet Glacier indicate that the glacier mass balance is strongly influenced by summer temperature, with a net balance change of −0.6 metres of water equivalent (m w.e.) under a 1°C warming. A 30% increase in winter precipitation is needed to offset this. Our values are initial estimates, and long-term monitoring is essential to characterize glacier and climate variability in the region better, to refine estimates of glacier runoff, and to quantify the sensitivity of runoff to glacier retreat.RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] La présente étude caractérise les paramètres météorologiques qui influencent le ruissellement des glaciers et quantifie les contributions récentes des glaciers à l'écoulement fluvial dans le bassin de la rivière Illecillewaet, en Colombie-Britannique. L'Illecillewaet est un bassin hydrographique englacé qui alimente le fleuve Columbia, avec un terrain, une couverture de glace et des éléments topographiques caractéristiques des bassins du cours supérieur du fleuve Columbia dans le sud-ouest du Canada. Nous utilisons les données météorologiques et de bilan massique recueillies sur le glacier Illecillewaet pour mettre au point et contraindre un modèle distribué de fonte des glaciers, basé sur la température et le rayonnement solaire absorbé. Le modèle de fonte est appliqué à tous les glaciers situés dans le bassin de la rivière Illecillewaet pour les étés de 2009 à 2011. Le ruissellement modélisé des glaciers pour les trois années a une valeur moyenne de 112 ± 12 × 10 6 m 3 , approximativement 10% de l'écoulement de la rivière Illecillewaet pour 2009 à 2011. Les glaciers ont contribué pour 25% de l'écoulement en août les trois années. En moyenne, 66% du ruissellement modélisé ...

show abstract

“…However, Akhtar et al (2008) found that RCM data produced better results when used with a hydrological model than using poor-quality observation data; this implies greater confidence in the RCM simulated meteorology than available observational data for this region (Wiltshire, 2014). Therefore, in the literature hydrological analysis is typically at the global scale using GCMs coupled with hydrological models (Milly et al, 2005;Hirabayashi et al, 2008;Falloon et al, 2011;Wiltshire et al, 2013a, b) or at the basin scale using standalone hydrological models (Singh and Kumar, 1997;Singh and Bengtsson, 2005;Singh et al, 2008;Seidel et al, 2000) such as the soil water assessment tool (SWAT; Arnold et al, 1998). Weather data in SWAT are either simulated within the model using a weather generator or taken from observations of daily precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature (Nyeko, 2015).…”

Section: Mathison Et Al: South Asia River-flow Projections and Thmentioning

confidence: 99%

South Asia river-flow projections and their implications for water resources

Mathison

Wiltshire

Falloon

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. South Asia is a region with a large and rising population, a high dependence on water intense industries, such as agriculture and a highly variable climate. In recent years, fears over the changing Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and rapidly retreating glaciers together with increasing demands for water resources have caused concern over the reliability of water resources and the potential impact on intensely irrigated crops in this region. Despite these concerns, there is a lack of climate simulations with a high enough resolution to capture the complex orography, and water resource analysis is limited by a lack of observations of the water cycle for the region. In this paper we present the first 25 km resolution regional climate projections of river flow for the South Asia region. Two global climate models (GCMs), which represent the ASM reasonably well are downscaled (1960-2100) using a regional climate model (RCM). In the absence of robust observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis is also downscaled providing a constrained estimate of the water balance for the region for comparison against the GCMs (1990GCMs ( -2006. The RCM river flow is routed using a river-routing model to allow analysis of present-day and future river flows through comparison with available river gauge observations. We examine how useful these simulations are for understanding potential changes in water resources for the South Asia region. In general the downscaled GCMs capture the seasonality of the river flows but overestimate the maximum river flows compared to the observations probably due to a positive rainfall bias and a lack of abstraction in the model. The simulations suggest an increasing trend in annual mean river flows for some of the river gauges in this analysis, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century. The future maximum river-flow rates still occur during the ASM period, with a magnitude in some cases, greater than the present-day natural variability. Increases in river flow could mean additional water resources for irrigation, the largest usage of water in this region, but has implications in terms of inundation risk. These projected increases could be more than countered by changes in demand due to depleted groundwater, increases in domestic use or expansion of water intense industries. Including missing hydrological processes in the model would make these projections more robust but could also change the sign of the projections.

show abstract

Impact assessment of climate change on the hydrological response of a snow and glacier melt runoff dominated Himalayan river

Cited by 219 publications

References 36 publications

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Glacier Meltwater Contributions and Glaciometeorological Regime of the Illecillewaet River Basin, British Columbia, Canada

South Asia river-flow projections and their implications for water resources

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About