“Imagine a World in Which”: Using Scenarios in Political Science

Barma, Naazneen H.; Durbin, Brent; Lorber, Eric; Whitlark, Rachel Elizabeth

doi:10.1093/isp/ekv005

Cited by 15 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 25 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Scenarios are structured narratives of potential futures, often based on scientific estimations of plausible, emerging risks. They commonly rely on current trends and their extrapolation into the future, accounting for exogenous shocks and unexpected combinations of events (Barma et al 2015). In different forms, scenarios have been used in both scholarship and practice for centuries.…”

Section: Scenario Analysis: From Contingent Futures To Complex Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Embracing the Darkness: Methods for Tackling Uncertainty and Complexity in Environmental Disaster Risks

Matejova

Briggs

2021

Global Environmental Politics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Environmental systems are complex and often difficult to predict. The interrelationships within such systems can create abrupt changes with lasting impacts, yet they are often overlooked until disasters occur. Mounting environmental and social crises demand the need to better understand both the role and consequences of emerging risks in global environmental politics (GEP). In this research note, we discuss scenarios and simulations as innovative tools that may help GEP scholars identify, assess, and communicate solutions to complex problems and systemic risks. We argue that scenarios and simulations are effective at providing context for interpreting “weak signals.” Applying simulations to research of complex risks also offers opportunities to address otherwise overwhelming uncertainty.

show abstract

Section: Scenario Analysis: From Contingent Futures To Complex Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Embracing the Darkness: Methods for Tackling Uncertainty and Complexity in Environmental Disaster Risks

Matejova

Briggs

2021

Global Environmental Politics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Теория игр в политологии была превращена в новый метод прогнозирования -метод сценарных прогнозов. Об этом статья коллектива авторов «Представьте мир, в котором»: использование сценариев в политологии» [5].…”

Section: игра с двумя популяциями населенияunclassified

Game Modeling of the Political Space: Analysis of Foreign Literature

Bayer

Vasilyeva

Ветренко

2021

Upravlencheskoe konsul'tirovanie

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose is to identify the main trends and gaps in the research of foreign scientists on the topic “Game modeling of political space”.Methods. In this review, the authors used a semi-systematic method of researching the literature, in which at the first stage they used quantitative methods, and then the selected array of publications was investigated by the integrative method, revealing theoretical studies and practical results of the application of game political components.Results. Based on the selected foreign publication stream on the topic “game modeling of political space” by the method of semi-systematic analysis, six main trends in the study and application of game theory and game modeling in political discourse have been identified:considering the value of game modeling through the prism of interaction, not collision of actors;application of game modeling in the development and adoption of political decisions;development of new approaches to the analysis of the very methodology of game modeling in politics;game as a form of effective political communication;study of game theory on the basis of fundamental classical monographs of the mid-20th century as applied to the solution of pressing political problems;application of game modeling in predicting election results, especially in those political systems that are based on the theory of rational choice during voting.A lacuna in the studies of recent decades has identified the issue of using political game modeling in electoral processes. Despite the continuing relevance of the topic of elections around the world, no significant volume of publications was selected.Conclusions. Foreign researchers use the potential of game modeling in politics more often and more multifaceted than in domestic political science. Evolutionary game-theoretic models are used not only to model political and international processes themselves, but also to related social spheres, such as economics, religious and ethnic relations. Game theory is used to study a wide range of social and political problems and social phenomena: voting, fundamentalism, religious and ethnic conflicts, civil violence.

show abstract

“…The outcome of these processes of institutional evolution is not certain, and such outcomes are in any event only ever provisional (March and Olsen 1998). To cope with these kinds of analytical challenges, political scientists have developed scenario-based forecasting techniques that explicitly contemplate multiple possible outcomes and attempt to identify the critical causal factors most essential to determining which path is ultimately taken (Bernstein et al 2000;Barma et al 2016).…”

Section: Cyber Futures and Value Tradeoffsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cyber Futures and the Justice Motive: Avoiding Pyrrhic Victory

Raymond¹

2018

MCA

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“Imagine a World in Which”: Using Scenarios in Political Science

Cited by 15 publications

References 25 publications

Embracing the Darkness: Methods for Tackling Uncertainty and Complexity in Environmental Disaster Risks

Embracing the Darkness: Methods for Tackling Uncertainty and Complexity in Environmental Disaster Risks

Game Modeling of the Political Space: Analysis of Foreign Literature

Cyber Futures and the Justice Motive: Avoiding Pyrrhic Victory

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About