IFS Green Budget 2016

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Foreword from ICAEW ICAEW is once again very pleased to be associated with the IFS Green Budget. This 2016 report comes at a crucial juncture at the beginning of a new parliament where the political debate is as polarised as it has been for some time. By providing an independent, evidence-based commentary on the economic choices and challenges that we face, it offers much-needed perspective for policymakers as well as the wider electorate. Terms of use: Documents inThe UK government is committed to delivering a budget surplus by 2019-20. It is also committed to funding a range of major infrastructure projects to help unlock long-term economic prosperity. These competing policy priorities will require deft financial management over the course of this parliament, together with a realistic assessment of what is affordable and how these projects can be funded. As the Chancellor pointed out in January, the economic outlook going into 2016 remains uncertain. Balancing the books while having enough in the bank to invest for the future will require tenacity as well as realism about what is achievable.This year, we have produced two chapters for the report. The first provides an analysis of the government balance sheet. The second explores the policy options for infrastructure spending.ICAEW is a world-leading professional accountancy body with 146,000 members in over 160 countries. As an organisation and a profession, we stand for high-quality financial information that can be used to inform good decision-making. We hope the Green Budget will be widely used to that end. Michael Izza Chief Executive Officer of ICAEW Foreword from the Nuffield FoundationOn 16 March, the Chancellor will make his Budget Statement to the House of Commons, setting out the government's assessment of the state of the economy and proposals for tax and spending policy. It is one of the most important annual events for any government, and consequently for all UK citizens. But it shouldn't be the only opportunity to present and discuss analysis of our public finances, and both public debate and policymaking are better informed by the availability of additional, non-partisan analysis.

Forecasting the 2021 local burden of population alcohol‐related harms using Bayesian structural time–series

“…In undertaking this research, we found that freely available and reliable forecasting data that would be informative in relation to alcohol-related hospital admissions were limited. Nevertheless, some relevant time-series, such as alcohol taxation [34] and ethnic population [35] trends and forecasts, are available. We plan to investigate the impact of adding these data to our now-and forecasting models.…”