Identifying Unwanted Conditions through Chaotic Area Determination in the Context of Indonesia’s Economic Resilience at the City Level

Hidayat, Yuyun; Purwandari, Titi; Subiyanto, .

doi:10.3390/su13095183

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 37 publications

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“…The purpose of the constraint probability or sensitivity is to see the proportion of actual events that are correctly predicted; it describes the sensitivity of the indicator or classifier used, whereby a 100% sensitivity value means that all actual events are correctly predicted by the classifier [2]. The process must hunt for outliers until all outlier data are valid, as represented by an acceptable number of false alarms [23].…”

Section: Constraint Probability (Cp)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Objective Method for Determining the Importance of Unprecedented Restlessness as a Rice Crisis Indicator at the National Level

et al. 2021

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In this study, we use restlessness as an input for a rice crisis indicator, since restlessness rather than rice price provides a comparable year-to year context. We outline the significant increase in the use of unprecedented restlessness (UR) as an indicator for rice crises. The UR approach involves a precedence analysis, in contrast with the existing approach, the price shock analysis. We test UR as a new indicator for rice crises at the national level, which can be applied in Asia and other countries around the world where rice is the staple food. Strong indicators point out the effectiveness of strategic government programs and are able to assess solutions and detect rice crises, while weak indicators are only reliable in detecting whether or not there has been a crisis. UR is tested across 43 countries using two new statistics: success probability (SP) and constraint probability (CP). As a consequence of SP and CP calculations, a large number of IMR control charts for UR analysis are constructed to provide evidence that UR is a strong indicator. The optimum validity measurement result is achieved with SP = 8/26 = 0.31 and CP = 8/14 = 0.57. This means that the UR detects and is followed by only 31% of riot events. Since the value of SP is less than 0.6, we can conclude that the UR indicator is not considered valid as an indicator of rice crises at the national level. The values of CP and SP are determined subjectively as equal to 0.6. This is the main cause of the emergence of new problems in the calibration of UR as an indicator of rice crises. The subjective success criteria trigger a question regarding why the value is 0.6, for which there is no scientific justification. Based on this background, we continue to objectively establish success criteria for UR validity. After conducting a risk analysis involving a crisis recovery cost (CRC) to crisis anticipation cost (CAC) ratio, it is found that the probability of the CRC-to-CAC ratio having values greater than 7 is 0.76, which means the CRC-to-CAC ratio tends to be higher than 7. Objectively, it is concluded that UR, which has been defined as rice crisis indicator at the national level, is an important indicator.

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Section: Constraint Probability (Cp)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Objective Method for Determining the Importance of Unprecedented Restlessness as a Rice Crisis Indicator at the National Level

et al. 2021

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Developing New Method in Measuring City Economic Resilience by Imposing Disturbances Factors and Unwanted Condition

2022

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Recent research uses an index to measure economic resilience, but the index is inadequate because it is impossible to determine which disturbance factors have the greatest impact on the economic resilience of cities. This study aims to develop a new methodology to measure the economic resilience of a city by simultaneously examining unwanted conditions and disturbance factors. The ratio of regional original income to the number of poor people is known as Z and is identified as a measure of economic resilience in Indonesia. Resilience is measured by Z’s position in relation to the unwanted area following a specific level of disturbance. If Z is in the unwanted condition, the city’s per capita income will decrease, and the city will be considered economically not resilient. The results of the analysis show that six levels of economic resilience have been successfully distinguished based on research on 514 cities in Indonesia involving nine indicators of disturbance and one variable of economic resilience during the five-year observation period, 2015–2019. Only 3.11 percent of cities have economic resilience level 1, while 69.18 percent have level 0. Economically resilient cities consist of 4.24 percent of cities at level 2, as much as 3.39 percent at level 3, as much as 3.39 percent at level 4, and as much as 16.69 percent at level 5. The novelty of this research is to provide a new methodology for measuring the economic resilience of cities by integrating unwanted conditions as necessary conditions and disturbance factors as sufficient conditions. The measurement of a city’s economic resilience is critical to help the city government assess the security of the city so the government can take preventive actions to avoid the cities falling into unwanted conditions.

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Identifying Unwanted Conditions through Chaotic Area Determination in the Context of Indonesia’s Economic Resilience at the City Level

Cited by 2 publications

References 37 publications

Objective Method for Determining the Importance of Unprecedented Restlessness as a Rice Crisis Indicator at the National Level

Objective Method for Determining the Importance of Unprecedented Restlessness as a Rice Crisis Indicator at the National Level

Developing New Method in Measuring City Economic Resilience by Imposing Disturbances Factors and Unwanted Condition

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