Identifying priority landscapes for conservation of snow leopards in Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistan’s total estimated snow leopard habitat is about 80,000 km2 of which about half is considered prime habitat. However, this preliminary demarcation was not always in close agreement with the actual distribution—the discrepancy may be huge at the local and regional level. Recent technological developments like camera trapping and molecular genetics allow for collecting reliable presence records that could be used to construct realistic species distribution based on empirical data and advanced mathematical approaches like MaxEnt. The current study followed this approach to construct an accurate distribution of the species in Pakistan. Moreover, movement corridors, among different landscapes, were also identified through circuit theory. The probability of habitat suitability, generated from 98 presence points and 11 environmental variables, scored the snow leopard’s assumed range in Pakistan, from 0 to 0.97. A large portion of the known range represented low-quality habitat, including areas in lower Chitral, Swat, Astore, and Kashmir. Conversely, Khunjerab, Misgar, Chapursan, Qurumber, Broghil, and Central Karakoram represented high-quality habitats. Variables with higher contributions in the MaxEnt model were precipitation during the driest month (34%), annual mean temperature (19.5%), mean diurnal range of temperature (9.8%), annual precipitation (9.4%), and river density (9.2). The model was validated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and defined thresholds. The average test AUC in Maxent for the replicate runs was 0.933 while the value of AUC by ROC curve calculated at 0.15 threshold was 1.00. These validation tests suggested a good model fit and strong predictive power. The connectivity analysis revealed that the population in the Hindukush landscape appears to be more connected with the population in Afghanistan as compared to other populations in Pakistan. Similarly, the Pamir-Karakoram population is better connected with China and Tajikistan, while the Himalayan population was connected with the population in India. Based on our findings we propose three model landscapes to be considered under the Global Snow Leopard Ecosystem Protection Program (GSLEP) agenda as regional priority areas, to safeguard the future of the snow leopard in Pakistan and the region. These landscapes fall within mountain ranges of the Himalaya, Hindu Kush and Karakoram-Pamir, respectively. We also identified gaps in the existing protected areas network and suggest new protected areas in Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan to protect critical habitats of snow leopard in Pakistan.

Modeling Distribution and Habitat Suitability for the Snow Leopard in Bhutan

“…Snow leopards occur at low densities, which in concert with their elusive nature renders distribution and habitat suitability studies difficult (Ghoshal et al, 2019;Kalashnikova et al, 2019;Watts et al, 2019). Even though studies on snow leopard distribution exist, most of them were conducted in high-quality habitats (Suryawanshi et al, 2019) and are restricted to a few countries such as Pakistan (Hammed et al, 2020), India (Watts et al, 2019;Singh et al, 2020), Nepal (Aryal et al, 2016;Shrestha and Kindlmann, 2020), China (Bai et al, 2018;Li et al, 2020), Southern Russia (Kalashnikova et al, 2019), and Kazakhstan (Holt et al, 2018), whereas in the case of Bhutan, only little is known. Such imbalances in the knowledge of the snow leopard's distribution can result in an incomplete understanding of its distribution nationally and globally.…”

“…In addition to biophysical factors, bioclimatic factors can also affect snow leopard distribution (Aryal et al, 2016;Bai et al, 2018;Hammed et al, 2020;Shrestha and Kindlmann, 2020). Hence, accounting for them can improve the accuracy of species distribution models (SDMs) (Aryal et al, 2016).…”

Use of GIS and Remote Sensing Data to Understand the Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCC) on Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) Habitat in Pakistan

“…Subsequent habitat loss leading to fragmentation of the snow leopard's range will present numerous conservation challenges [96]. A recent study confirmed that parts of snow leopard range in Pakistan have very low habitat suitability for the species [49]. However, this may increase as climate change threatens the mountain landscapes that snow leopards are found in.…”

“…Approximately, 24% of the snow leopard habitat is laying inside protected areas of different sizes. According to a recent study [49] most of the suitable habitat of snow leopard in Pakistan has already been protected, however there are some areas presenting suitable habitat are outside of any declared protected area. The same study concluded that most of the national parks had weak links with regards to movement of snow leopard across different habitats.…”

“…Pakistan supports the third largest snow leopard population (250-400 individuals, tied with India) throughout its 12-country range with a total estimated area of about 80,000 km 2 [47], half of which is considered prime habitat [48]. However, a recently published study concluded that a large proportion of snow leopard range in Pakistan consists of very low-quality habitat [49]. Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world [50,51] and is fifth on the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change according to the 2020 Global Climate Risk Index [52].…”