Identifying Critical Input Parameters for Improving Drag‐Based CME Arrival Time Predictions

Kay, C.; Mays, M. L.; Verbeke, C.

doi:10.1029/2019sw002382

Cited by 32 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…We consider three different scale CMEs a slightly faster than average CME (which we refer to as average for simplicity hereafter), a fast CME, and an extreme CME. As in Kay, Mays, and Verbeke (2020), which explored the sensitivity of the original ANTEATR to various input parameters, we expect to see different behavior for a CME that propagates at roughly the background solar wind speed as opposed to significantly faster than it. The initial properties for each CME are listed in Table 1.…”

Section: Ensemble Study Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Modeling Interplanetary Expansion and Deformation of CMEs With ANTEATR‐PARADE: Relative Contribution of Different Forces

Kay

Nieves‐Chinchilla

2021

JGR Space Physics

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Understanding the interplanetary behavior of CMEs is critical for accurate space weather forecasting. The severity of a geomagnetic storm depends on the CME properties at the time of impact, mostly significantly the magnetic field but also its size and kinematic properties. Accordingly, we must not only understand the properties with which a CME is initiated, but how they evolve during its propagation if we wish to know the severity and timing of an impact (e.g., Manchester et al., 2017). Kilpua et al. (2019) provides an in depth summary on many of the challenges of forecasting CMEs.We tend to have an abundance of coronal images from the Earth's perspective, both in visible light and the extreme ultraviolet, which have allowed us to study the source region and early evolution of Earth-impacting CMEs for nearly half of a century (e.g., Tousey, 1973), but routine observations from off the Sun-Earth line are limited to the coronagraphs or heliospheric imagers on the STEREO satellites. Parker Solar Probe

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Section: Ensemble Study Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Modeling Interplanetary Expansion and Deformation of CMEs With ANTEATR‐PARADE: Relative Contribution of Different Forces

Kay

Nieves‐Chinchilla

2021

JGR Space Physics

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“…Drag-based models (DBMs) typically use the same form of the basic drag equation applied to various geometries representing the CME structure of different dimensionality, e.g., 1D Drag-Based Model (DBM, Vršnak et al, 2013Vršnak et al, , 2014 and Enhanced DBM Zhang, 2014, 2015), 2D Drag-Based Model (Žic et al, 2015), the 2D Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo, Möstl et al, 2015) and a version of ElEvo using data from Heliospheric Imagers (ElEvoHi, Rollett et al, 2016), and 3D flux rope models such as ANother Type of Ensemble Arrival Time Results (ANTEATR, Kay and Gopalswamy, 2018) or 3-Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection (3DCORE, Möstl et al, 2018). Since DBMs use an analytical equation to describe the time-dependent evolution of the CME, they are computationally efficient and thus widely used in probabilistic/ensemble modeling approaches (e.g., Amerstorfer et al, 2018Amerstorfer et al, , 2021Dumbović et al, 2018;Kay and Gopalswamy, 2018;Napoletano et al, 2018;Kay et al, 2020). The advantage of ensemble modeling is that it gives the probability of arrival, as well as the range of possible arrival times and speeds.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drag-Based Model (DBM) Tools for Forecast of Coronal Mass Ejection Arrival Time and Speed

Dumbović

Čalogović

Martinić

et al. 2021

Front. Astron. Space Sci.

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Forecasting the arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather research. One of the commonly used models is the analytical drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of CMEs due to its simplicity and calculation speed. The DBM relies on the observational fact that slow CMEs accelerate whereas fast CMEs decelerate and is based on the concept of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) drag, which acts to adjust the CME speed to the ambient solar wind. Although physically DBM is applicable only to the CME magnetic structure, it is often used as a proxy for shock arrival. In recent years, the DBM equation has been used in many studies to describe the propagation of CMEs and shocks with different geometries and assumptions. In this study, we provide an overview of the five DBM versions currently available and their respective tools, developed at Hvar Observatory and frequently used by researchers and forecasters (1) basic 1D DBM, a 1D model describing the propagation of a single point (i.e., the apex of the CME) or a concentric arc (where all points propagate identically); (2) advanced 2D self-similar cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which evolves in a self-similar manner; (3) 2D flattening cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which does not evolve in a self-similar manner; (4) DBEM, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which uses CME ensembles as an input; and (5) DBEMv3, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which creates CME ensembles based on the input uncertainties. All five versions have been tested and published in recent years and are available online or upon request. We provide an overview of these five tools, as well as of their similarities and differences, and discuss and demonstrate their application.

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“…We see little variation in the transit time within each CME scale, no more than a few hours. From this and our previous studies (Kay, Mays, & Verbeke, 2020), we know the transit time is very sensitive to the CME parameters but it does not seem the choice of magnetic forces nor does the initial velocity decomposition make a significant difference.…”

Section: Relevance To Space Weather Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 49%

“…We later developed the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO, Kay et al, 2017) to combine a simple flux rope model with ForeCAT results to produce synthetic in situ profiles. These were then linked with ANother Type of Ensemble Arrival Time Results (ANTEATR, Kay & Gopalswamy, 2018;Kay, Mays, & Verbeke, 2020), which determines transit times and velocities using a one-dimensional drag model but full three-dimensional CME shape when determining the precise timing of the impact. In this work, we combine ANTEATR with the magnetic field model of Nieves-Chinchilla et al (2018) as ANTEATR-PARADE (Physics-driven Approach to Realistic Axis Deformation and Expansion) to develop the first forward model of a CME's interplanetary expansion and deformation that runs efficiently enough to be used for future real-time ensemble predictions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Interplanetary Expansion and Deformation of CMEs with ANTEATR-PARADE I: Relative Contribution of Different Forces

Kay,

Nieves-Chinchilla

2020

Preprint

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Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are key drivers of space weather activity but most predictions have been limited to the expected arrival time of a CME, rather than the internal properties that affect the severity of an impact. Many properties, such as the magnetic field density and mass density, follow conservation laws and vary systematically with changes in the size of a CME. We present ANTEATR-PARADE, the newest version of the ANTEATR arrival time model, which now includes physics-driven changes in the size and shape of both the CME's central axis and its cross section. Internal magnetic and external drag forces affect the acceleration of the CME in different directions, inducing asymmetries between the radial and perpendicular directions. These improvements should lead to more realistic CME velocities, both bulk and expansion, sizes and shapes, and internal properties. ANTEATR-PARADE is the first model of its kind that provides this level of detail on the time scales needed for future space weather predictions. We present the model details, an initial illustration of the general behavior, and a study of the relative importance of the different forces. The model shows a pancaking of both the cross section and central axis of the CME so that their radial extent becomes smaller than their extent in the perpendicular direction. For a single parameterization of our magnetic field model we find that the drag forces tend to exceed the magnetic forces and the results are very sensitive to the initial velocities of the CME.

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Identifying Critical Input Parameters for Improving Drag‐Based CME Arrival Time Predictions

Cited by 32 publications

References 35 publications

Modeling Interplanetary Expansion and Deformation of CMEs With ANTEATR‐PARADE: Relative Contribution of Different Forces

Modeling Interplanetary Expansion and Deformation of CMEs With ANTEATR‐PARADE: Relative Contribution of Different Forces

Drag-Based Model (DBM) Tools for Forecast of Coronal Mass Ejection Arrival Time and Speed

Modeling Interplanetary Expansion and Deformation of CMEs with ANTEATR-PARADE I: Relative Contribution of Different Forces

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