Identification of favorable environments for thunderstorms in reanalysis data

Westermayer, Anja T.; Groenemeijer, Pieter; Pistotnik, Georg; Sausen, R.; Faust, Eberhard

doi:10.1127/metz/2016/0754

Cited by 52 publications

(53 citation statements)

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“…Across the domain, convection‐favouring conditions primarily occur ahead of upper‐level troughs, consistent with similar studies (Kapsch et al ., ; Merino et al ., ; Punge and Kunz, ; Westermayer et al ., ; Mohr et al ., ; Taszarek et al ., ). In some regions, however, further flow configurations were shown to provide favourable pre‐convective environments such as, for example, a broad upper‐level low over the Adriatic Sea favouring thunderstorm occurrence in southern Poland.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in central and western Europe and the relation to large‐scale flow and teleconnection patterns

Piper

Kunz

Allen

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The driving factors that influence the spatial and annual variability of thunderstorms across Europe are still poorly understood. Due to a lack of long‐term, reliable and consistent information about the occurrence of convective storms, a weather type classification has been developed that estimates thunderstorm probability from a combination of appropriate meteorological quantities on the mesoscale. Based on this approach, the temporal and spatial variability of convection‐favouring environments is investigated between 1958 and 2014 using a high‐resolution reanalysis dataset. To identify potential drivers for convective days, typical upper‐level flow patterns were deduced using a multivariate approach. Our results suggest a strong link between local‐scale thunderstorm activity and large‐scale flow and air mass properties, such as stability, moisture, or vertical lifting. For example, while all over central Europe the most prominent pattern is given by a southwesterly flow type over the respective area, distinct regional discrepancies regarding further favourable flow types are observed. The crucial role of large‐scale flow is further studied by assessing the relation between Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns and widespread convective activity. It is found that positive phases of the East Atlantic or Scandinavian patterns go along with a significant enhancement of convection‐favouring conditions in several European regions, which can be explained by anomalies in the large‐scale temperature and flow fields. Sea‐surface temperature over the Bay of Biscay likewise impacts the convective environment, with the largest positive effect over the western part of the study area.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in central and western Europe and the relation to large‐scale flow and teleconnection patterns

Piper

Kunz

Allen

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…For our study, we did not use CIN, because the vertical resolution of data available was not sufficient to compute it. Westermayer et al (2016) showed that the probability of thunderstorm occurrence increases strongly with increasing midtropospheric relative humidity. We found that future changes in midtropospheric relative humidity in the models (not shown) strongly mimicked the patterns in FIG.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We followed the procedure employed by Westermayer et al (2016), whereby reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD; Groenemeijer and Kühne 2014) were matched to LI and DLS values computed at ERA-Interim grid points. A slight modification of Westermayer et al (2016) was employed such that, for a match, we allowed a severe weather report to occur up to 6 h after an ERA-Interim time step and that we used a slightly different domain (spanning 6.0 to 16.58 in longitude and 45.75 to 548 in latitude). We considered reports of large hail $ 2 cm, wind gusts $ 25 m s…”

Section: Convective Storm Environment Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The probability is defined as the relative frequency that more than one lightning strike was detected by the EUCLID network ) in a 0.758 3 0.758 model grid box within the 3 h after the time at which the given LI was simulated, and during the 3 h for which the indicated amount of precipitation was simulated. The period comprises the years 2008 through 2013 and the area of study is a region covering a large part of Europe (see Westermayer et al 2016). We will from now on call any environment with accumulated precipitation $ 1 mm in 6 h a precipitating environment.…”

Section: Precipitation In Unstable Environmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

et al. 2017

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The occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for severe convective storms was assessed in an ensemble of 14 regional climate models covering Europe and the Mediterranean with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.448. These conditions included the collocated presence of latent instability and strong deep-layer (surface to 500 hPa) wind shear, which is conducive to the severe and well-organized convective storms. The occurrence of precipitation in the models was used as a proxy for convective initiation. Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were investigated by comparing two future periods (2021-50 and 2071-2100) to a historical period for each of these scenarios. The ensemble simulates a robust increase (change larger than twice the ensemble sample standard deviation) in the frequency of occurrence of unstable environments (lifted index # 22) across central and south-central Europe in the RCP8.5 scenario in the late twenty-first century. This increase coincides with the increase in lower-tropospheric moisture. Smaller, less robust changes were found until midcentury in the RCP8.5 scenario and in the RCP4.5 scenario. Changes in the frequency of situations with strong ($15 m s 21) deep-layer shear were found to be small and not robust, except across far northern Europe, where a decrease in shear is projected. By the end of the century, the simultaneous occurrence of latent instability, strong deep-layer shear, and model precipitation is simulated to increase by up to 100% across central and eastern Europe in the RCP8.5 and by 30%-50% in the RCP4.5 scenario. Until midcentury, increases in the 10%-25% range are forecast for most regions. A large intermodel variability is present in the ensemble and is primarily due to the uncertainties in the frequency of the occurrence of unstable environments.

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“…The following meteorological parameters are investigated: available potential energy (CAPE), lapse rate between 700 and 500 Pa (LR), precipitable water (PW) and vertical motion at 500 hPa (OMEGA). We examine, on the one hand, parameters that capture large-scale conditions (Φ 500 , PV, OMEGA) and, on the other hand, parameters that have already shown a significant relationship to (severe) thunderstorms and their associated perils in numerous studies (SLI, CAPE, LR, DLS, PW; e.g., Haklander and van Delden, 2003;Manzato, 2003;Kaltenböck et al, 2009;Sánchez et al, 2009;Mohr, 2013;Westermayer et al, 2016;Taszarek et al, 2017).…”

Section: Environmental Conditions During Blockingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

Mohr

Wandel

Lenggenhager

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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A statistically significant link is presented between atmospheric blocking located over the eastern North Atlantic and northern Europe and warm‐season thunderstorm activity over western and central Europe. Lightning data from 2001 to 2014 were used to identify thunderstorm days and blocking events were extracted from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis using an objective identification algorithm. The statistical link between the two phenomena is established through odds ratio analysis. Two areas – one over the eastern part of the North Atlantic and one over the Baltic Sea – were identified as locations where blocking influences the occurrence of deep moist convection in parts of western and central Europe. Based on the mean ambient conditions on days with blocking in these two areas, well‐known dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms supporting or suppressing the development of thunderstorms were confirmed. The anticyclonic circulation of a block over the eastern part of the North Atlantic leads to a northerly to northwesterly advection of dry and stable air masses into Europe on the eastern flank of the block. In addition, these environmental conditions are on average associated with large‐scale subsidence of air masses (convection‐inhibiting conditions). In contrast, the southerly to southwesterly advection of warm, moist and unstable air masses on the western flank of a block over the Baltic Sea results in convection‐favouring conditions over western and central Europe. Both blocking situations are on average associated with weak wind speeds at mid‐tropospheric levels and with weak wind shear. As a consequence, thunderstorms related to atmospheric blocking over the Baltic Sea tend to be on average less organised.

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Identification of favorable environments for thunderstorms in reanalysis data

Cited by 52 publications

References 0 publications

Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in central and western Europe and the relation to large‐scale flow and teleconnection patterns

Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in central and western Europe and the relation to large‐scale flow and teleconnection patterns

Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

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