Ice Forecasting in the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS)

Anderson, Eric J.; Fujisaki‐Manome, Ayumi; Kessler, James; Lang, Gregory A.; Chu, Philip; Kelley, John G. W.; Chen, Yi; Wang, Jia

doi:10.3390/jmse6040123

Cited by 44 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(41 reference statements)

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“…FVCOM has been adapted and implemented for the Great Lakes in several recent studies (Anderson et al, ; Anderson et al, ; Anderson & Schwab, ; Bai et al, ). The FVCOM application developed for the Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS) was applied in this study (Anderson et al, ; Kelley et al, ). Bathymetry was interpolated from the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/greatlakes/greatlakes.html).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Upwelling Influences Hypoxia Spatial Patterns and Nearshore Dynamics in Lake Erie

et al. 2019

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Hypoxia, defined as dissolved oxygen (DO) < 2 mg/L, in the central basin of Lake Erie has been studied since the mid‐1900s. Even so, spatial patterns of hypoxia, and episodic hypoxia in nearshore areas where drinking water plant intakes are located, are not well characterized owing to limited observations and short‐term dynamics. We evaluated a physically based, DO model with respect to patterns of hypoxia observed in Lake Erie. The DO model used assigned rates of sediment and water column oxygen demand that were temperature dependent but otherwise spatially and temporally uniform. The DO model was linked to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Lake Erie Operational Forecasting System hydrodynamic model, an application of the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). Model temperature and DO were compared with observations from ship‐based studies, real‐time sensor networks and an array of moored sensors that we deployed in 2017. In years with dominant southwesterly winds, persistent downwelling occurred along the south shore, which resulted in a thinner thermocline and earlier initiation of hypoxia along the south shore than the north. Occasional northeast winds temporarily reversed this pattern, causing upwelling along the south shore that brought hypoxic water to nearshore locations and water intakes. The DO model reproduced observed spatial and temporal patterns of hypoxia and revealed locations subject to episodes of hypoxia, including nearshore Ohio, north of Pelee Island, and near the Bass Islands. Model skill was limited in some respects, highlighting the importance of accurate simulation of the thermal structure and spatial patterns of oxygen demand rates.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Upwelling Influences Hypoxia Spatial Patterns and Nearshore Dynamics in Lake Erie

et al. 2019

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“…FVCOM has been successfully implemented in several ocean and Great Lakes studies (Anderson et al, 2015;Fujisaki-Manome et al, 2013Rowe et al, 2017), including simulation of ice conditions using the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE; Hunke et al, 2010), which is internally coupled with FVCOM. Further details about model setup for the Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS), a subset of GLOFS, can be found in Anderson et al (2018). In this study, evaporation from LEOFS is evaluated using two available heat flux algorithms native to FVCOM-CICE.…”

Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Operational Hydrodynamic Models for Real‐time Simulation of Evaporation From Large Lakes

Gronewold

Anderson

Smith

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Methods for simulating evaporative water loss from Earth's large lakes have lagged behind advances in hydrodynamic modeling. Here we explore use of oceanographic models to simulate lake evaporation from a long‐term water balance perspective. More specifically, we compare long‐term monthly simulations of latent heat flux from two configurations of a current operational hydrodynamic forecasting system (based on the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model, or FVCOM) for the Laurentian Great Lakes. We then compare these simulations to comparable simulations from a legacy conventional lake thermodynamics model, and from a recently developed statistical water balance model. We find that one of the FVCOM configurations that is currently used in operations for short‐term hydrodynamic forecast guidance is also suitable for real‐time simulation of evaporation from very large lakes. The operational versions of FVCOM should therefore be considered a readily available tool for supporting regional water supply management and, pending further research, extended water supply forecasting.

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“…In regulatory applications, engineering design guidance for ocean outfalls and offshore discharges to freshwaters share a common manual [12]. As a result of these similarities, contributions to the body of knowledge on physical processes in large lakes merit a place in the coastal ocean literature (historically [3] and more recently [13,14]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Management Transition to the Great Lakes Nearshore: Insights from Hydrodynamic Modeling

Huang

Kuczynski

Auer

et al. 2019

JMSE

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The emerging shift in Great Lakes management from offshore to nearshore waters will require attention to complexities of coastal hydrodynamics and biogeochemical transformations. Emphasizing hydrodynamics, this work resolves transport processes in quantifying discharge plume and pollutant of concern (POC) footprint dimensions, the latter being the portion of the plume where water quality standards are not met. A generic approach, isolated from pollutant-specific biokinetics, provides first-approximation estimates of the footprint area. A high-resolution, linked hydrodynamic-tracer model is applied at a site in the Greater Toronto Area on Lake Ontario. Model results agree with observed meteorological and hydrodynamic conditions and satisfactorily simulate plume dimensions. Footprints are examined in the context of guidelines for regulatory mixing zone size and attendant loss of beneficial use. We demonstrate that the ratio of the water quality standard to the POC concentration at discharge is a key determinant of footprint dimensions. Footprint size for traditional pollutants (ammonia, total phosphorus) meets regulatory guidelines; however, that for soluble reactive phosphorus, a presently unattended pollutant, is ~1–2 orders of magnitude larger. This suggests that it may be necessary to upgrade treatment technologies to maintain consistency with regulatory guidelines and mitigate manifestations of the eutrophication-related soluble reactive phosphorus POC.

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Ice Forecasting in the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS)

Cited by 44 publications

References 33 publications

Coastal Upwelling Influences Hypoxia Spatial Patterns and Nearshore Dynamics in Lake Erie

Coastal Upwelling Influences Hypoxia Spatial Patterns and Nearshore Dynamics in Lake Erie

Evaluating Operational Hydrodynamic Models for Real‐time Simulation of Evaporation From Large Lakes

Management Transition to the Great Lakes Nearshore: Insights from Hydrodynamic Modeling

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