IAMs and peer review

Rosen, Richard A.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2582

Cited by 26 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Integrated approaches that estimate global land-use change, such as the approach used here, are inherently associated with multiple sources of uncertainties and largely depend on the quality of input data 56–58 . First, although we used the best available determinants of cropland expansion and intensification potentials, uncertainties in global data on land-use and land-use intensity (such as crop yields, harvested area, etc.)…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity

et al. 2019

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With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We investigate the consequences of attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either by cropland expansion or intensification, and analyse their impacts on agricultural markets and biodiversity. We find that both scenarios lead to lower crop prices across the world, even in regions where production decreases. Cropland expansion mostly affects biodiversity hotspots in Central and South America, while cropland intensification threatens biodiversity especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, India and China. Our results suggest that production gains will occur at the costs of biodiversity predominantly in developing tropical regions, while Europe and North America benefit from lower world market prices without putting their own biodiversity at risk. By identifying hotspots of potential future conflicts, we demonstrate where conservation prioritization is needed to balance agricultural production with conservation goals.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity

et al. 2019

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“…Integrated assessment models enable assessment of the cost-benefit structures of future developments, often based on optimization approaches and conducted in detailed, economic sector-specific manner 50 . Complementary to such approaches, simple, transparent and data-based approaches such as those employed in this article enable scrutiny of the biophysical conditions, constraints and effects of anticipated changes in the land system, for example, by contextualizing results or by providing reality checks 56 . Fostering both research strands is a prerequisite for advancing our scientific understanding of the trade-offs related to land use and for identifying political strategies that allow developments to stay within the biophysical boundaries the Earth system poses to society.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

Erb¹,

Lauk²,

Kastner³

et al. 2016

Nat Commun

277

195

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Safeguarding the world's remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of many developing regions.

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“…i Both pathways i There is an important distinction between the capacity of outside actors to scrutinize a scenario, and to scrutinize the underlying model, which has recently been subject to some debate (e.g. [38,39]). assumed demanding levels of emissions reductions over the next few decades.…”

Section: From Emissions Scenarios To Representative Pathwaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bottom-up and ex-post analysis of the policy performance of and compliance with the climate regime may also contribute to re-evaluating and readapting policy targets. The controversy around the use of BECCS by IAMs indicates that there are major methodological and epistemological uncertainties as well as a lack of transparency about the basic assumptions and feedback loops [38,39].…”

Section: From Neutral To Responsible Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The politics of anticipation: the IPCC and the negative emissions technologies experience

Beck

Mahony

2018

Glob. Sustain.

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Non-technical summaryIn the post-Paris political landscape, the relationship between science and politics is changing. We discuss what this means for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using recent controversies over negative emissions technologies (NETs) as a window into the fraught politics of producing policy-relevant pathways and scenarios. We suggest that pathways and scenarios have a ‘world-making’ power, potentially shaping the world in their own image and creating new political realities. Assessment bodies like the IPCC need to reflect on this power, and the implications of changing political contexts, in new ways.

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IAMs and peer review

Cited by 26 publications

References 4 publications

Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity

Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity

Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

The politics of anticipation: the IPCC and the negative emissions technologies experience

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