Polls and Elections: Campaign Field Offices and Voter Mobilization in 2012

Abstract

During the last several presidential elections, much attention has been paid to campaign field offices. A number of analyses have investigated the impact of field offices on vote choice, but there have been very few investigations of whether and to what extent campaign field offices influence voter turnout. Using data from the 2012 election, I examine the impact of Obama and Romney field offices on county‐level turnout. I find that the presence of campaign field offices in counties across the United States increased turnout by a small amount. The results presented here add to the literature on campaign effects by showing that field offices—an increasingly important component of modern presidential campaigning—can influence levels of political engagement.

Polls and Elections: Abandoning the Ground Game? Field Organization in the 2016 Election

“…The 2016 election represented a step backward in field organization for both Democrats and Republicans, compared to 2008 (Masket ) and 2012 (Masket, Sides, and Vavreck ; Weinschenk ). Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump opened fewer offices than their party's previous nominee.…”

“…Field Office Effects in the 2016 Presidential Election, Modeled According to Articles on Field Office Effects (Masket ; Masket, Sides, and Vavreck ; Weinschenk ). Note : Coefficient plots represent ordinary least squares (OLS) regression coefficients.…”

“…Figure c shows the results of an update of the model from Weinschenk () using data from 2016. Neither of the studies above examine the variable, turnout, that was central to previous studies of mobilization techniques (Gerber and Green ).…”

“…After decades of mass mediated campaigning, presidential campaigns began to value in‐person mobilization again in the early 2000s and devoted more resources to contact at the local level (Beck and Heidemann ; Panagopoulos and Wielhouwer ). Several recent articles investigated the electoral impact of these renewed campaign investments in field offices, finding that Democratic offices (but not Republican ones) increased turnout and partisan vote share by approximately 1% (Darr and Levendusky ; Masket ; Masket, Sides, and Vavreck ; Weinschenk ). Were field offices similarly effective in the 2016 election?…”

“…Any remaining errors are my own. Replication data for this article can be found on my website, www.joshuadarr.com. investments in field offices, finding that Democratic offices (but not Republican ones) increased turnout and partisan vote share by approximately 1% (Darr and Levendusky 2014;Masket 2009;Masket, Sides, and Vavreck 2016;Weinschenk 2015). Were field offices similarly effective in the 2016 election?…”