Truman defeats Dewey: The effect of campaign visits on election outcomes

Heersink, Boris; Peterson, Brenton D.

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2017.07.007

“…In presidential election years, some scholars point to the positive mobilization effect of presidential campaign visits (Cann and Cole 2011; Heersink and Peterson 2017; Hill and McKee 2005; West 1983), while others highlight the lack of any substantial mobilization effect (Herr 2002; Holbrook and McClurg 2005). Some studies have found evidence that presidential visits can raise turnout in midterm elections as well (Cohen, Krassa, and Hamman 1991; Mellen and Searles 2013a).…”

Section: Impact Of Presidential Campaigning On Voting Behavior and Elmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trump on the Trail: Assessing the Impact of Presidential Campaign Visits on Voting Behavior in the 2018 Midterm Elections

Abramowitz¹,

2020

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In this article, we examine the impact of President Donald Trump's visits on the campaign trail in the November 2018 midterm elections. We find that President Trump's visits failed to either boost overall statelevel turnout or support for GOP U.S. Senate candidates in these elections. The results reinforce the notion that presidential capacity to influence voting behavior is limited, especially in an era of deep partisan polarization when partisan identity and other, more fundamental considerations shape vote choice and turnout decisions.

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“…The evidence from existing studies is mixed overall. For example, Heersink and Peterson (2017) using county-level election results from 1948 find that Truman's vote-share was significantly higher where he made campaign visits, but the same was not true for Dewey. Jones (1998), Althaus, Nardulli and Shaw (2002) and Gerber et al (2011) study campaign visits and advertisements during presidential elections from 1972 to 2000 and conclude that the visits had a significant impact on the vote.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Making Rallies Great Again: The Effects of Presidential Campaign Rallies on Voter Behavior, 2008-2016

Snyder¹,

Yousaf²

2020

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“…The evidence from existing studies is mixed overall. For example, Heersink and Peterson (2017) using county-level election results from 1948 find that Truman's vote-share was significantly higher where he made campaign visits, but the same was not true for Dewey. Jones (1998), Althaus, Nardulli and Shaw (2002) and Gerber et al (2011) study campaign visits and advertisements during presidential elections from 1972 to 2000 and conclude that the visits had a significant impact on the vote.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%