Hypothesis Testing in Palaeoanthropology

Abstract

Hypothesis testing is used to guide scientific research by narrowing down possible explanations for a phenomenon, using the principle of elimination of alternative scenarios. Thus, scientists test hypotheses by attempting to falsify them. A hypothesis is deduced from observed patterns and aims at linking those patterns to the factors proposed to have caused it. Hypothesis testing is frequently accompanied by statistical tests of null hypotheses, focusing on the inferential analysis of sample properties such as the mean and the variance. For instance, if there is less than a 5% chance that two samples are drawn from the same entity, we reject the null hypothesis and claim that these samples are significantly different. A salient point to keep in mind when testing hypotheses is that a successful evaluation of a hypothesis depends critically on the manner in which it was formulated. Hypotheses pertaining to the origin of modern humans are reviewed and evaluated. Key Concepts A hypothesis links observed patterns to the factors proposed to have caused it. Scientists do not attempt to prove that a hypothesis is true. Hypothesis testing guides scientific research by narrowing down possible explanations for a phenomenon, using the principle of elimination of alternative scenarios. Statistical tests assess the probability that a hypothesis is true or false. It is important for hypotheses to specify testable predictions. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the origin of modern humans. Hypotheses explaining modern human origins each make several predictions, some of which can be readily tested using paleontological and genetic data.