Hypothesis-driven information fusion in adversarial, deceptive environments

Kott, Alexander; Singh, Rajdeep; McEneaney, William M.; Milks, Wes

doi:10.1016/j.inffus.2010.09.001

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 34 publications

(50 reference statements)

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“…This is done by the Red cell, usually the officer who specializes in collecting and analyzing enemy intelligence. 13 The Red cell plays the role of the enemy in order to help the Blue cell understand possible actions and responses of the enemy. Similar to the cyber wargames, the Red cell provides two cases of enemy actions: the most likely plan of enemy actions, and the most dangerous (to the BCT) plan of enemy actions.…”

Section: Military Practice Of Course Of Action Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The game-theoretic model and experimental investigation of cyber wargaming

Colbert

Kott

Knachel

2018

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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We demonstrate that game-theoretic calculations serve as a useful tool for assisting cyber wargaming teams in identifying useful strategies. We note a significant similarity between formulating cyber wargaming strategies and the methodology known in military practice as Course of Action (COA) generation. For scenarios in which the attacker must penetrate multiple layers in a defense-in-depth security configuration, an accounting of attacker and defender costs and penetration probabilities provides cost-utility payoff matrices and penetration probability matrices. These can be used as decision tools by both the defender and attacker. Inspection of the matrices allows players to deduce preferred strategies (or COAs) based on game-theoretical equilibrium solutions. The matrices also help in analyzing anticipated effects of potential human-based choices of wargame strategies and counterstrategies.We describe a mathematical game-theoretic formalism and offer detailed analysis of a table-top cyber wargame executed at the US Army Research Laboratory. Our analysis shows how game-theoretical calculations can provide an effective tool for decision-making during cyber wargames.

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Section: Military Practice Of Course Of Action Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The game-theoretic model and experimental investigation of cyber wargaming

Colbert

Kott

Knachel

2018

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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“…Moreover, DMs tend to gather a relatively small amount of observations when subject to external time constraints and required to make immediate decisions within extremely different environments, see, for example, Kott et al (2011) and Mulder and Voorbraak (2003). Therefore, it follows from the dynamic nature defining information acquisition that the design of information and expert systems should account for time pressure and its effects on the information gathering process of DMs.…”

Section: Conclusion and Managerial Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

An optimal sequential information acquisition model subject to a heuristic assimilation constraint

Caprio

Santos‐Arteaga

Tavana

2016

Benchmarking: An International Journal

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the optimal sequential information acquisition process of a rational decision maker (DM) when allowed to acquire n pieces of information from a set of bi-dimensional products whose characteristics vary in a continuum set. Design/methodology/approach – The authors incorporate a heuristic mechanism that makes the n-observation scenario faced by a DM tractable. This heuristic allows the DM to assimilate substantial amounts of information and define an acquisition strategy within a coherent analytical framework. Numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate the main results obtained. Findings – The information acquisition behavior modeled in this paper corresponds to that of a perfectly rational DM, i.e. endowed with complete and transitive preferences, whose objective is to choose optimally among the products available subject to a heuristic assimilation constraint. The current paper opens the way for additional research on heuristic information acquisition and choice processes when considered from a satisficing perspective that accounts for cognitive limits in the information processing capacities of DMs. Originality/value – The proposed information acquisition algorithm does not allow for the use of standard dynamic programming techniques. That is, after each observation is gathered, a rational DM must modify his information acquisition strategy and recalculate his or her expected payoffs in terms of the observations already acquired and the information still to be gathered.

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“…The research program titled Real-time Adversarial Intelligence and Decision-making (RAID) was sponsored by the United States' Defense Advanced Research Programs Agency (DARPA) during the period of 2004(Kott, 2007Kott et al, 2011;Ownby and Kott, 2006). The objective of the program was to build tools for automated generation of enemy situation estimates and predictions of enemy near-term action (Level 3 SA) in military operations.…”

Section: Another Example Of Research In Ksa: the Raid Programmentioning

confidence: 99%