Building resilience into today’s complex infrastructures is critical to the daily functioning of society and its ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters, epidemics, and cyber-threats. This study proposes quantitative measures that capture and implement the definition of engineering resilience advanced by the National Academy of Sciences. The approach is applicable across physical, information, and social domains. It evaluates the critical functionality, defined as a performance function of time set by the stakeholders. Critical functionality is a source of valuable information, such as the integrated system resilience over a time interval, and its robustness. The paper demonstrates the formulation on two classes of models: 1) multi-level directed acyclic graphs, and 2) interdependent coupled networks. For both models synthetic case studies are used to explore trends. For the first class, the approach is also applied to the Linux operating system. Results indicate that desired resilience and robustness levels are achievable by trading off different design parameters, such as redundancy, node recovery time, and backup supply available. The nonlinear relationship between network parameters and resilience levels confirms the utility of the proposed approach, which is of benefit to analysts and designers of complex systems and networks.
Society is increasingly reliant upon complex and interconnected cyber systems to conduct daily life activities. From personal finance to managing defense capabilities to controlling a vast web of aircraft traffic, digitized information systems and software packages have become integrated at virtually all levels of individual and collective activity. While such integration has been met with immense increases in efficiency of service delivery, it has also been subject to a diverse body of threats from nefarious hackers, groups, and even state government bodies. Such cyber threats have shifted over time to affect various cyber functionalities, such as with Direct Denial of Service (DDoS), data theft, changes to data code, infection via computer virus, and many others.
Moving target defenses alter the environment in response to adversarial action and perceived threats. Such defenses are a specific example of a broader class of system management techniques called system agility. In its fullest generality, agility is any reasoned modification to a system or environment in response to a functional, performance, or security need. This paper details a recently launched 10-year Cyber-Security Collaborative Research Alliance effort focused in-part on the development of a new science of system agility, of which moving target defenses are a central theme. In this context, the consortium seeks to address the questions of when, what, and how to employ changes to improve the security of an environment, as well as consider how to measure and weigh the effectiveness of different approaches to agility. We discuss several fundamental challenges in developing and using MTD maneuvers, and outline several broad classes of mechanisms that can be used to implement them. We conclude by detailing specific MTD mechanisms used to adaptively quarantine vulnerable code in Android applications, and consider ways of comparing cost and payout of its use.
While much attention has been paid to the vulnerability of computer networks to node and link failure, there is limited systematic understanding of the factors that determine the likelihood that a node (computer) is compromised. We therefore collect threat log data in a university network to study the patterns of threat activity for individual hosts. We relate this information to the properties of each host as observed through network-wide scans, establishing associations between the network services a host is running and the kinds of threats to which it is susceptible. We propose a methodology to associate services to threats inspired by the tools used in genetics to identify statistical associations between mutations and diseases. The proposed approach allows us to determine probabilities of infection directly from observation, offering an automated high-throughput strategy to develop comprehensive metrics for cyber-security.
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