Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne

Abstract

Une version préliminaire de cet article a été discutée à l'occasion de la 6 e conférence internationale du CEMF organisée à l'université de Bourgogne en décembre 2012. Je remercie tout particulièrement A. Asensio, S. Charles et J.-F. Ponsot pour leurs remarques et suggestions effectuées alors. Je remercie aussi M. Houssiaux ainsi que les deux rapporteurs anonymes pour leurs lectures attentives. Bien sûr, je demeure seul responsable des insuffisances de cet article. Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne Revue de la régulation, 15 | 1er semestre / Spring 2014 10 La réalisation d'un tel cercle vicieux est identifiée par Robinson (1966, p. 74) lors de l'hyperinflation allemande : « Each rise in wages, therefore, precipitated a further fall in the exchange rate, and each fall in the exchange rate called forth a further rise in wages. » 11 Dans cet article, nous souhaitons adopter mais aussi développer cette approche théorique, puis tenter d'observer si celle-ci fournit un éclairage intéressant concernant Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne Revue de la régulation, 15 | 1er semestre / Spring 2014

Inflation regimes and hyperinflation: a Post-Keynesian/structuralist typology

“…23 Moreover, the growing importance of the nominal exchange rate as a reference induces agents to demand dollars as a store of value, so that the greater demand for dollars devalues the nominal exchange rate, thereby further accelerating inflation rates. In this sense, Bastos (2002), Marie (2014) or Charles and Marie (2016) noted for instance that hyperinflation episodes usually occur in countries with high levels of foreign debt. This is not surprising: the need to pay external debt interest induces policymakers to promote exchange rate devaluations towards generating trade surpluses.…”

“…More precisely, this paper develops a typology of inflation regimes based on some earlier Post-Keynesian and Structuralist contributionsfor instance Robinson (1951), Noyola-Vasquez (1956), Sunkel (1960), Kalecki (1962) and Pazos (1963Pazos ( , 1972 or even Dutt (1987), Lavoie (1992) and Carvalho (1992Carvalho ( , 1993 plus some recent contributions that theoretically and empirically analyze inflation regimes and hyperinflation episodes based on lessons from this earlier literature. This renewed interest in inflation regimes and hyperinflation from a Post-Keynesian/Structuralist perspective includes for instance the works of Marie (2014), Charles and Marie (2016, Setterfield (2015, 2020), Vera (2017), Kulesza (2017), Drabo (2018), or Desmedt (2021). 6 Hence, the typology is the result of an ongoing research effort that incorporates these recent contributions.…”

How Israel avoided hyperinflation. The success of its 1985 stabilization plan in the light of post-Keynesian theory

“…Numerous similarities can be spotted between the macroeconomic trajectories of Israel and of Argentina in the 1980s. 1 Argentinian hyperinflation has been examined previously (Marie, 2014) prompting us to mobilize anew the conceptual framework discussed at the time for an analysis of the Israeli economy. While this episode was examined in the late 1980s in a new-Keynesian theoretical framework, as far as we know there has been no analysis of this trajectory purporting to take a post-Keynesian approach.…”

Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange

“…Beyond the strictly empirical analysis, it seems logical to us to look into this episode on the basis of a theoretical proposition developed around the case of Argentinian hyperinflation in 1989 (see Marie, 2014). The analogy is all the more natural because the Argentinian hyperinflation, like the Bulgarian case, resulted in the adoption of a currency board (CB).…”