Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange

Charles, Sébastien; Marie, Jonathan

doi:10.1080/14631377.2017.1339476

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…For example, in Bulgaria, the national currency lost its value against the USD in the 1990s by more than 95% (University of Pennsylvania 2021). After this great valuation collapse, the Bulgarian currency became rather stable; in USD terms, its value in 2020-2021 is similar to how it was in the late 1990s (valuation was sustainable mostly due to the currency board system used; Hristov and Zaimov 2003;Charles and Marie 2017). The Romanian currency shares a similar development; however, its devaluation somewhat continued in the last two decades.…”

Section: Literature Review: Inflation and Hyperinflationmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…Similarly, in Zimbabwe, manufacturing companies simply counted on cash as inventory as well as held assets in neighboring countries (Siyakiya 2015). In the Yugoslavian hyperinflation, it was common to trust German marks as a stable currency (Petrović et al 1999); similar trust for German marks and the USD were also present in Bulgaria during the 1990s hyperinflation (Charles and Marie 2017). Actually, it has been argued that trust in foreign currencies is one major reason (González 2009;Charles and Marie 2017) why domestic inflation changes into rapidly developing and aggressive hyperinflation.…”

Section: Literature Review: Inflation and Hyperinflationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Yugoslavian hyperinflation, it was common to trust German marks as a stable currency (Petrović et al 1999); similar trust for German marks and the USD were also present in Bulgaria during the 1990s hyperinflation (Charles and Marie 2017). Actually, it has been argued that trust in foreign currencies is one major reason (González 2009;Charles and Marie 2017) why domestic inflation changes into rapidly developing and aggressive hyperinflation. Domestic currency depreciates in value, which then causes further increase in import prices and results in higher domestic inflation.…”

Section: Literature Review: Inflation and Hyperinflationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Inflation and Hyperinflation Countries in 2018–2020: Risks of Different Assets and Foreign Trade

Hilmola

2021

JRFM

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Since the global financial crisis (2008–2009), central banks and governments in developed countries have relied upon loose monetary and financial policy. In the coronavirus pandemic era, these policies were taken even more to the extreme. In 2021, countries around the world started to experience product availability issues, and inflation in some cases was extremely high. There has been debate about the possibility of persistent high inflation. However, risks to assets and foreign trade in this new situation are unknown as all important hyperinflation cases are from decades to century-old. It is important to know what kind of implications high inflation has on modern economies. Therefore, in this study, 10 countries with the highest inflation were selected to be examined in the period of 2018–2020. In these countries, currencies lost a considerable amount of their value against US dollar in 2018–2020. Stock market indexes in many cases provided very high returns in local currency terms; however, against the US dollar, the index yield changed for the substantially negative. Apartment prices in general declined as well. In foreign trade, imports generally declined, while exports were mixed or even increased. However, it should be noted that all of these observations are influenced by the pandemic era and special circumstances of a particular country.

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Section: Literature Review: Inflation and Hyperinflationmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Literature Review: Inflation and Hyperinflationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Review: Inflation and Hyperinflationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Inflation and Hyperinflation Countries in 2018–2020: Risks of Different Assets and Foreign Trade

Hilmola

2021

JRFM

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“…Secara teoritis, inflasi memberikan dampak negatif terhadap cadangan devisa. Charles & Marie (2017) serta Matlasedi (2017) mengatakan bahwa inflasi di dalam negeri permintaan dalam negeri menyebabkan harga barang didalam negeri menjadi lebih mahal sehingga untuk mengembalikan harga pada titik keseimbangan yaitu dengan mengimpor barang dari negara lain. Penelitian yang dilakukan Sonia & Setiawina (2016) Berdasarkan rumusan masalah dan pembahasan hasil penelitian terlebih dahulu maka diajukan hipotesis sebagai berikut: H1: Variabel ekspor, Impor, inflasi dan kebijakan ACFTA secara simultan berpengaruh serempak terhadap cadangan devisa negara ASEAN -5; H2: Secara parsial variabel ekspor berpengaruh positif terhadap cadangan devisa negara ASEAN -5; H3: Secara parsial variabel impor dan inflasi berpengaruh negatif terhadap cadangan devisa negara ASEAN -5; H4: Secara parsial variabel kebijakan ACFTA berpengaruh terhadap cadangan devisa negara ASEAN -5…”

Section: Abstrakunclassified

Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, Inflasi, Dan Kebijakan Acfta Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Asean-5 Periode 2005 – 2019

Apriadi

Setiawina

2022

EEB

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To overcome obstacles in international trade, several countries have made bilateral and multilateral agreements that can benefit both parties, one of which is the ASEAN – China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). State foreign exchange is one source of foreign trade financing. Several factors that affect foreign exchange reserves are export and import activities, and inflation. With the ACFTA policy, it is expected to facilitate international trade activities in ASEAN-5 countries so as to increase the growth of the country's foreign exchange reserves. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of exports, imports, inflation, and ACFTA policies on ASEAN-5 foreign exchange reserves for the period 2005 – 2019. The analysis is carried out using panel data regression, using secondary data sourced from the World Bank and the World Trade Organization. The results of the analysis show that exports, imports, inflation, and ACFTA policies simultaneously have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves of ASEAN – 5. 2005-2019. The import variable (X2) partially has a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves before and after the enactment of ACFTA in ASEAN-5 for the period 2005-2019. The inflation variable (X3) partially has a significant negative effect on foreign exchange reserves before and after the enactment of ACFTA in ASEAN-5 period 2005-2019. The ACFTA policy variable (D1) partially has a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves before and after the establishment of ACFTA in ASEAN-5 for the 2005-2019 period.

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“…7 Nearly all countries in the EECA recorded high inflation levels, particularly in the mid-1990s. 8 A financial crisis led to Bulgaria's hyperinflation in 1997 (Charles and Marie (2017). 9 To assess whether certain high values may influence the average.…”

Section: Macro-governance Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dose government spending an important factor in economic growth? Nonlinear cubic quantile nexus from Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA)

Shaddady

2022

Preprint

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This study investigates the non-monotonic phenomenon of the government spending-growth nexus in the EECA rigorously using panel data from 19 counties over the period 1995–2019 by applying a nonlinear quadratic estimator and cubic nonlinear estimator to quantile regressions. The preliminary findings revealed a negative linear nexus of government spending and economic growth using a linear model, while the nonlinear models (i.e., quadratic and cubic nonlinear estimators) indicated evidence of nonlinearity in the nexus in the EECA over the study period. Further, the study found strong evidence of the existence of an inverted “N-shaped” (nonlinear cubic) nexus between government spending and growth, which can be interpreted as the typical credit-driven boom-and-bust cycle in most EECA countries. Finally, in elucidating the nexus between government spending and economic growth, the study found that most macro governance and economic variables are relaxing.

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Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange

Cited by 8 publications

References 37 publications

Inflation and Hyperinflation Countries in 2018–2020: Risks of Different Assets and Foreign Trade

Inflation and Hyperinflation Countries in 2018–2020: Risks of Different Assets and Foreign Trade

Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, Inflasi, Dan Kebijakan Acfta Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Asean-5 Periode 2005 – 2019

Dose government spending an important factor in economic growth? Nonlinear cubic quantile nexus from Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA)

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