Hydrological response of Chamelia watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change

Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna; Thapa, Bhesh Raj

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.053

Cited by 65 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 48 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Limited studies address the changing climate in Western Nepal Khatiwada et al, 2016) and its impact on water resources (Shiwakoti, 2017;Pandey et al, 2019). Fewer studies use RCM ensembles (Karmacharya et al, 2007;Devkota et al, 2015;Pandey et al, 2019). Evaluations of CORDEX-SA RCM performance over the greater South Asian sub-continent and the HKH show that biases exist but RCM performances are promising.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Evaluation and correction of spatiotemporal biases is imperative for impact assessment studies, especially those focusing on hydrological application at finer scales, (Wilby, 2010). Quantile-mapping has emerged as promising for correcting RCM and GCM biases in Nepal (Lutz et al, 2016;Pandey et al, 2019) and abroad (Teutschbein and Seibert, 2012;Themeßl et al, 2012;Lafon et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Climate futures for Western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX‐SA

Dhaubanjar¹,

Pandey²,

Bharati³

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

With the objective to provide a basis for regional climate models (RCMs) selection and ensemble generation for climate impact assessments, we perform the first ever analysis of climate projections for Western Nepal from 19 RCMs in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for South Asia (CORDEX‐SA). Using the climate futures (CF) framework, projected changes in annual total precipitation and average minimum/maximum temperature from the RCMs are classified into 18 CF matrices for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs: 4.5/8.5), three future time frames (2021–2045/2046–2070/2071–2095), three geographic regions (mountains/hills/plains) and three representative CF (low‐risk/consensus/high‐risk). Ten plausible CF scenario ensembles were identified to assess future water availability in Karnali basin, the headwaters of the Ganges. Comparison of projections for the three regions with literature shows that spatial disaggregation possible using RCMs is important, as local values are often higher with higher variability than values for South Asia. Characterization of future climate using raw and bias‐corrected data shows that RCM projections vary most between mountain and Tarai plains with increasing divergence for higher future and RCPs. Warmer temperatures, prolonged monsoon and sporadic rain events even in drier months are likely across all regions. Highest fluctuations in precipitation are projected for the hills and plains while highest changes in temperature are projected for the mountains. Trends in change in annual average discharge for the scenarios vary across the basin with both precipitation and temperature change influencing the hydrological cycle. CF matrices provide an accessible and simplified basis to systematically generate application‐specific plausible climate scenario ensembles from all available RCMs for a rigorous impact assessment.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate futures for Western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX‐SA

Dhaubanjar¹,

Pandey²,

Bharati³

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…M. Pesce, et al Ecological Engineering 133 (2019) 121-136 rivers in the future will be taken on an extreme level, with increase in the winter-rainy period and decrease in summer-dry period (Cervi et al, 2018;Pandey et al, 2019;Radchenko et al, 2017). RCP4.5 scenarios, both in mid-and late-century periods, feature a greater uncertainty compared to RCP8.5.…”

Section: Hydrological Responses To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing uncertainty of hydrological and ecological parameters originating from the application of an ensemble of ten global-regional climate model projections in a coastal ecosystem of the lagoon of Venice, Italy

Pesce

Critto

Torresan

et al. 2019

Ecological Engineering

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A B S T R A C TWith increasing evidences of climate change affecting coastal waters, there is a strong need to understand future climate conditions and assess the potential responses of delicate coastal ecosystems. Results of climate change studies based on only one GCM-RCM combination should be interpreted with caution as results are highly dependent on the assumptions of the selected combination. In this study we examined the uncertainty in the hydrological and ecological parameters of the Zero river basin (ZRB) -Palude di Cona (PDC) coastal aquatic ecosystem generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from ten different combinations of General Circulation Model (GCM) -Regional Climate Model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) implemented in the hydrological model (SWAT) and the ecological model (AQUATOX). The baseline period of 1983-2012 was used to identify climate change variations in two future periods: mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100) periods. SWAT outputs from the ensemble indicate a summer reduction in inorganic nitrogen loadings of 1-22% and a winter increase of 1-19%. Inorganic phosphorus loadings indicate a yearly increase of 32-61%. AQUATOX outputs from the ensemble show major changes in the summer period, with an increase in Chl-a concentration of 9-56%, a decrease in diatoms of 74-98% and an increase in cyanobacteria of 421-3590%. Obtained results confirm that the use of multiple GCM-RCM projections can provide a more robust assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and ecology of coastal waters, but at the same time highlight the large uncertainty of climate change-related impact studies, which can affect the decision-making processes regarding the management and preservation of sensitive aquatic ecosystems such as those in coastal areas.

show abstract

“…Currently many regions of the world have clearly experienced the significant land use/cover (LULC) change and this is already creating environmental, social and economic problems [2]. Hydrological impacts of LULC changes (e.g., [3]) as well as climate change (e.g., [4]) are evident in different parts of the globe. Many studies have assessed impacts of climate change and LULC changes separately, however, very few (e.g., [5]) have attempted to assess integrated impacts of both climate and LULC changes on hydrology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use Change Impacts on Hydrology in the Kathmandu Valley Watershed, Central Nepal

Lamichhane

Shakya

2019

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The population growth and urbanization are rapidly increasing in both central and peripheral areas of the Kathmandu Valley (KV) watershed. Land use/cover (LULC) change and climate variability/change are exacerbating the hydrological cycle in the KV. This study aims to evaluate the extent of changes in hydrology due to changes in climate, LULC and integrated change considering both factors, with KV watershed in central Nepal as a case study. Historical LULC data were extracted from satellite image and future LULC are projected in decadal scale (2020 to 2050) using CLUE-S (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional contest) model. Future climate is projected based on three regional climate models (RCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A hydrological model in soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was developed to simulate hydrology and analyze impacts in hydrology under various scenarios. The modeling results show that the river runoff for RCP4.5 scenarios is projected to increase by 37%, 21%, and 12%, respectively, for climate change only, LULC only, and integrated changes of both. LULC change resulted in an increase in average annual flow, however, a decrease in base-flow. Furthermore, the impacts of integrated changes in both LULC and climate is not a simple superposition of individual changes.

show abstract

Hydrological response of Chamelia watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change

Cited by 65 publications

References 48 publications

Climate futures for Western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX‐SA

Climate futures for Western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX‐SA

Assessing uncertainty of hydrological and ecological parameters originating from the application of an ensemble of ten global-regional climate model projections in a coastal ecosystem of the lagoon of Venice, Italy

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use Change Impacts on Hydrology in the Kathmandu Valley Watershed, Central Nepal

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About