Climate futures for Western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX‐SA

Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Bharati, Luna

doi:10.1002/joc.6327

Cited by 18 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Two of the stations fall in the mountain region, four in the hill region and three in the Tarai region, the southern plains of Nepal, providing a basis for comparison of region-specific implications of the climate indices. Further discussion of selection of the nine stations for climate change analysis is provided in [30]. Quality of data at all nine stations were checked in ClimPACT2 and all identified outliers were reviewed prior to index calculation.…”

Section: Analysis Of Climatology Of Climate Shocksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Shocks and Responses in Karnali-Mahakali Basins, Western Nepal

Pandey¹,

Sharma²,

Dhaubanjar³

et al. 2019

Climate

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The Himalayas are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, as it consequently increases the vulnerability of downstream communities, livelihoods and ecosystems. Western Nepal currently holds significant potential as multiple opportunities for water development within the country are underway. However, it is also identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, with both an increase in the occurrence of natural disasters and exacerbated severity and impacts levels. Regional climate model (RCM) projections indicate warmer weather with higher variability in rainfall for this region. This paper combines bio-physical and social approaches to further study and understand the current climate shocks and responses present in Western Nepal. Data was collected from 3660 households across 122 primary sampling units across the Karnali, Mahakali and Mohana River basins along with focus group discussions, which provided a rich understanding of the currently perceived climatic shocks and related events. Further analysis of climatology was carried out through nine indices of precipitation and temperature that were found to be relevant to the discussed climate shocks. Results show that 79% of households reported experiencing at least one type of climate shock in the five-year period and the most common occurrence was droughts, which is also supported by the climate data. Disaggregated results show that perception varies with the region and among the basins. Analysis of climatic trends further show that irregular weather is most common in the hill region, although average reported frequency of irregular weather is higher in the mountain. Further analysis into the severity and response to climatic shocks suggest an imminent need for better adaptation strategies. This study’s results show that a vast majority of respondents lack proper access to knowledge and that successful adaptation strategies must be adapted to specific regions to meet communities’ local needs.

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Section: Analysis Of Climatology Of Climate Shocksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Shocks and Responses in Karnali-Mahakali Basins, Western Nepal

Pandey¹,

Sharma²,

Dhaubanjar³

et al. 2019

Climate

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“…However, the magnitude of alteration is uncertain (Allan & Soden, 2008;Allen & Ingram, 2002) and varies from region to region. Several studies attempt to unravel such precipitation alterations globally (Dore, 2005;Groisman et al, 1999), regionally (Klein-Tank et al, 2006), and at national (Bohlinger & Sorteberg, 2018;Kansakar et al, 2004;Talchabhadel et al, 2018) and basin scales (Dhaubanjar et al, 2020;Kaini et al, 2020;Talchabhadel et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They developed four pathways, spanning a range of forcing in 2100 (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8,5 watts per meter squared), but did not include any socioeconomic factors. Based on CMIP5, several studies (Dhaubanjar et al, 2020;Kadel et al, 2018;Kaini et al, 2020;Rajbhandari et al, 2016;Talchabhadel et al, 2020) are conducted on assessing precipitation variability during historical and future periods in Nepal. These studies project future scenarios across the river basins or the entire country using CMIP5 models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observations and climate models confirm precipitation pattern is changing over Nepal

Talchabhadel

2021

Jalawaayu

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This paper presents a comprehensive picture of precipitation variability across Nepal over the present (1985-2014) and future (2021-2050) based on gauge-based observations from 28 precipitation stations distributed throughout the country and thirteen climate models of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 245 and SSP 585). Seventeen different precipitation indices are computed using daily precipitation data based on gauge-based observations and climate models. Along with absolute extreme precipitation indices, such as maximum 1-day, maximum consecutive 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day precipitation amounts, this study also computes the contribution of such instances to the annual precipitation. The selected precipitation indices not only allow for the analyses of heavy precipitation-related extremes but also guide the evaluation of agricultural productivity and drought indications, such as consecutive dry and wet days (CDD and CWD). The number of wet days and average precipitation during those wet days, along with the information of the number of days with daily precipitation ≥ 10, 20, 50, and 100 mm, summarize the distribution of total precipitation. This study emphasizes changing precipitation patterns by looking at these indices over the present and future periods. Observations and climate models show a changing nature of precipitation over Nepal. However, different climate models exhibit a different severity of changes. Though the yearly precipitation amount is not altered noticeably, this study finds that the extremes are expected to alter significantly than the averages. It is also to be noted that climate models are unable to capture localized extremes in Nepal Himalayas.

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“…Second, we project future scenarios of these climate indices. To do so, we used the 19 RCMbased climate ensemble projections for Karnali by Dhaubanjar et al (2020) as input data. A total of 26 climate indices were selected based on an index evaluation, expert consultation, and literature review.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unpacking Future Climate Extremes and their Sectoral Implications in Western Nepal

Chapagain

Dhaubanjar²,

Bharati³

2021

Preprint

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Existing climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and their sectoral implications in the Karnali Basin in western Nepal. First, future projections of 26 climate indices relevant to six climate-sensitive sectors in Karnali were made for the near (2021–2045), mid (2046–2070), and far (2071–2095) future for low- and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) using bias-corrected ensembles of 19 regional climate models from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Second, a qualitative analysis based on expert interviews and a literature review on the impact of the projected climate extremes on the climate-sensitive sectors was undertaken. Both the temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to deviate significantly from the historical reference already from the near future with increased occurrences of extreme events. Winter in the highlands is expected to become warmer and dryer. The hot and wet tropical summer in the lowlands will become hotter with longer warm spells and fewer cold days. Low-intensity precipitation events will decline, but the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The compounding effects of the increase in extreme temperature and precipitation events will have largely negative implications for the six climate-sensitive sectors considered here.

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Climate futures for Western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX‐SA

Cited by 18 publications

References 48 publications

Climate Shocks and Responses in Karnali-Mahakali Basins, Western Nepal

Climate Shocks and Responses in Karnali-Mahakali Basins, Western Nepal

Observations and climate models confirm precipitation pattern is changing over Nepal

Unpacking Future Climate Extremes and their Sectoral Implications in Western Nepal

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