Hydrological projections of climate change scenarios over the 3H region of China: A VIC model assessment

Abstract

[1] To examine the potential sensitivity of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H) region of China to potential changes in future precipitation and temperature, a hydrological evaluation using the VIC hydrological model under different climate scenarios was carried out. The broader perspective is providing a scientific background for the adaptation in water resource management and rural development to climate change. Twelve climate scenarios were designed to account for possible variations in the future with respect to the baseline of historic climate patterns. Results from the six representative types of climate scenarios (+2 C and +5 C warming, and 0%, +15%, À15% change in precipitation) show that rising temperatures for normal precipitation and for wet scenarios (+15% precipitation) yield greater increased evapotranspiration in the south than in the north, which is confirmed by the remaining six scenarios described below. For a 15% change in precipitation, the largest increase or decrease of evapotranspiration occurs between 33 and 36 N and west of 118 E, a region where evapotranspiration is sensitive to precipitation variation and is affected by the amount of water available for evaporation. Rising temperatures can lead to a south-to-north decreasing gradient of surface runoff. The six scenarios yield a large variation of runoff in the southern end of the 3H, which means that this zone is sensitive to climate change through surface runoff change. The Jiangsu province in the southeastern part of the 3H region shows an obvious sensitivity in soil moisture to climate change. On a regional mean scale, the hydrological change induced by the increasing precipitation from 15% to 30% is more obvious than that induced by greater warming of +5 C relative to +2 C. These simulations identify key regions of sensitivity in hydrological variation to climate change in the provinces of 3H, which can be used as guides in implementing adaptation.Citation: Dan, L., J. Ji, Z. Xie, F. Chen, G. Wen, and J. E. Richey (2012), Hydrological projections of climate change scenarios over the 3H region of China: A VIC model assessment,

Assessment of observed and model‐derived soil moisture‐evaporative fraction relationships over the United States Southern Great Plains

“…We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model [ Liang et al , ], a macroscale hydrological model, to calculate the water and energy balances at the four ARM‐SGP sites. VIC model version 4.1.2 [ Dan et al, ] was run for a period of 59 years (1950–2008), using 1950–2000 as the spin‐up period. The model calibration data set detailed in Sheffield et al [] was used to calibrate all model soil and vegetation parameters.…”

Performance of convective parameterization schemes in Asia using RegCM: Simulations in three typical regions for the period 1998–2002

“…The selected sub-regions consist of two mountain areas (NP and TP) and one irrigated plain (3H) region (Dan et al, 2012) in China. 3H is occupied by 425 million people and provides 50% of China's grain, where the crop production is greatly dependent on irrigation from groundwater and surface runoff.…”

Development and evaluation of a physically based multiscalar drought index: The Standardized Moisture Anomaly Index

“…Three types of evaporation in VIC were considered: (1) evaporation from the canopy layer (E c , mm) of each vegetation type, (2) transpiration (E t , mm) from each vegetation type, and (3) evaporation from the bare soil (E 1 , mm) [Liang et al, 1994;Xie et al, 2007;Dan et al, 2012]. The total evapotranspiration over a grid cell was computed as the sum of these three components.…”