Abstract:Introduction The Hudson Bay Drainage Basin (HBDB) comprises over a third of the Canadian landmass, contains important hydroelectric infrastructure and agricultural lands, and accounts for over a fifth of freshwater exports into the pan-arctic ocean system via the Hudson Bay Complex (HBC comprised of Hudson Bay, James Bay, Ungava Bay, Foxe Basin, and Hudson Strait; McClelland et al., 2006). The HBC itself is important to Arctic marine wildlife, and as a shipping route for Canada. It is a large region of primary… Show more
“…The A-HYPE implementation covers 23 million km 2 of the global continental landmass draining poleward, toward the Arctic Ocean, divided into 32,599 subbasins with approximately 700 km 2 horizontal resolution. For this research, a modified version of the model was generated by the University of Calgary Hydrologic Analysis Laboratory that included improved lake calibration, a frozen soil routine, and a regulation (reservoir) model for the HBDB (Stadnyk et al, 2020). This revised implementation of A-HYPE was used to generate daily streamflow for the pan-Arctic domain (Figure 1), driven by the HydroGFDv2 reanalysis.…”
“…As part of the BaySys project, a new configuration and recalibration of the A-HYPE model was conducted for the HBDB and is summarized in Stadnyk et al (2020). River regulation, frozen soil processes, and lake routing were revised within the Canadian domain (Stadnyk et al, 2020), which is utilized in this study as well. Here, we evaluated model performance across the pan-Arctic domain using daily discharge aggregated to a monthly timescale where we computed statistics for our 75 validation gauges.…”
Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning
The pan-Arctic domain is undergoing some of Earth’s most rapid and significant changes resulting from anthropogenic and climate-induced alteration of freshwater distribution. Changes in terrestrial freshwater discharge entering the Arctic Basin from pan-Arctic watersheds significantly impact oceanic circulation and sea ice dynamics. Historical streamflow records in high-latitude basins are often discontinuous (seasonal or with large temporal gaps) or sparse (poor spatial coverage), however, making trends from observed records difficult to quantify. Our objectives were to generate a more continuous 90-year record (1981–2070) of spatially distributed freshwater flux for the Arctic Basin (all Arctic draining rivers, including the Yukon), suitable for forcing ocean models, and to analyze the changing simulated trends in freshwater discharge across the domain. We established these data as valid during the historical period (1971–2015) and then used projected futures (preserving uncertainty by running a coupled climate-hydrologic ensemble) to analyze long-term (2021–2070) trends for major Arctic draining rivers. When compared to historic trends reported in the literature, we find that trends are projected to nearly double by 2070, with river discharge to the Arctic Basin increasing by 22% (on average) by 2070. We also find a significant trend toward earlier onset of spring freshet and a general flattening of the average annual hydrograph, with a trend toward decreasing seasonality of Arctic freshwater discharge with climate change and regulation combined. The coupled climate-hydrologic ensemble was then used to force an ocean circulation model to simulate freshwater content and thermohaline circulation. This research provides the marine research community with a daily time series of historic and projected freshwater discharge suitable for forcing sea ice and ocean models. Although important, this work is only a first step in mapping the impacts of climate change on the pan-Arctic region.
“…The A-HYPE implementation covers 23 million km 2 of the global continental landmass draining poleward, toward the Arctic Ocean, divided into 32,599 subbasins with approximately 700 km 2 horizontal resolution. For this research, a modified version of the model was generated by the University of Calgary Hydrologic Analysis Laboratory that included improved lake calibration, a frozen soil routine, and a regulation (reservoir) model for the HBDB (Stadnyk et al, 2020). This revised implementation of A-HYPE was used to generate daily streamflow for the pan-Arctic domain (Figure 1), driven by the HydroGFDv2 reanalysis.…”
“…As part of the BaySys project, a new configuration and recalibration of the A-HYPE model was conducted for the HBDB and is summarized in Stadnyk et al (2020). River regulation, frozen soil processes, and lake routing were revised within the Canadian domain (Stadnyk et al, 2020), which is utilized in this study as well. Here, we evaluated model performance across the pan-Arctic domain using daily discharge aggregated to a monthly timescale where we computed statistics for our 75 validation gauges.…”
Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning
The pan-Arctic domain is undergoing some of Earth’s most rapid and significant changes resulting from anthropogenic and climate-induced alteration of freshwater distribution. Changes in terrestrial freshwater discharge entering the Arctic Basin from pan-Arctic watersheds significantly impact oceanic circulation and sea ice dynamics. Historical streamflow records in high-latitude basins are often discontinuous (seasonal or with large temporal gaps) or sparse (poor spatial coverage), however, making trends from observed records difficult to quantify. Our objectives were to generate a more continuous 90-year record (1981–2070) of spatially distributed freshwater flux for the Arctic Basin (all Arctic draining rivers, including the Yukon), suitable for forcing ocean models, and to analyze the changing simulated trends in freshwater discharge across the domain. We established these data as valid during the historical period (1971–2015) and then used projected futures (preserving uncertainty by running a coupled climate-hydrologic ensemble) to analyze long-term (2021–2070) trends for major Arctic draining rivers. When compared to historic trends reported in the literature, we find that trends are projected to nearly double by 2070, with river discharge to the Arctic Basin increasing by 22% (on average) by 2070. We also find a significant trend toward earlier onset of spring freshet and a general flattening of the average annual hydrograph, with a trend toward decreasing seasonality of Arctic freshwater discharge with climate change and regulation combined. The coupled climate-hydrologic ensemble was then used to force an ocean circulation model to simulate freshwater content and thermohaline circulation. This research provides the marine research community with a daily time series of historic and projected freshwater discharge suitable for forcing sea ice and ocean models. Although important, this work is only a first step in mapping the impacts of climate change on the pan-Arctic region.
“…Terrestrial (overland) precipitation and temperature, used as input to the BaySys Team 2 Hudson-HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (H-HYPE; Andersson et al, 2015;Stadnyk et al, 2020) hydrological model, are investigated using the Hydrological Global Forcing Data product (HydroGFDv2, 0.5 grid; Berg et al, 2018) over the HBW. HydroGFD is an updated and extended version of the Watch Forcing Data-ERA-Interim method; although both use ERA-Interim, HydroGFD enables other reanalysis products to replace the ERA-Interim reanalysis to allow for correction in bias in temperature and precipitation.…”
In this article, we examine atmospheric and river discharge conditions within the Hudson Bay Complex for the BaySys 2016–2018 field program time frame. Investigated in particular is a subset of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis - Interim (ERA-Interim) atmospheric forcing variables, namely 2-m surface temperature, 10-m surface winds, precipitation, and sea-level pressure, in addition to river discharge. Results from this assessment show that 2016 was characterized by unusually warm conditions (terrestrial and marine) throughout the annual cycle; 2017 by strong cyclone activity in March and high precipitation in January, October, and November; and 2018 by cold and windy conditions throughout the annual cycle. Evaluation of terrestrial conditions showed higher than normal land surface temperatures (the Hudson Bay physical watershed) for all of the 2016–2018 period (excluding a colder than normal spell August–November 2018), particularly in January (2016 and 2017), higher than normal precipitation in October (2016 and 2017), and higher than normal terrestrial discharge to the Hudson Bay Complex in March (2016 and 2017), with drier than average June through October (2016–2018).
“…Under the BaySys project, a custom implementation of the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model was established for the Hudson Bay basin that incorporated prairie potholes, frozen soils, lake parameterizations, and regulation including dams and diversions [32]. To improve model evaluation, gap-filled, outlet-based observational discharge data records were derived for all rivers entering Hudson Bay [25].…”
Section: Continental Interior and Hudson Baymentioning
Canada, like other high latitude cold regions on Earth, is experiencing some of the most accelerated and intense warming resulting from global climate change. In the northern regions, Arctic amplification has resulted in warming two to three times greater than global mean temperature trends. Unprecedented warming is matched by intensification of wet and dry regions and hydroclimatic cycles, which is altering the spatial and seasonal distribution of surface waters in Canada. Diagnosing and tracking hydrologic change across Canada requires the implementation of continental-scale prediction models owing the size of Canada’s drainage basins, their distribution across multiple eco- and climatic zones, and the scarcity and paucity of observational networks. This review examines the current state of continental-scale climate change across Canada and the anticipated impacts to freshwater availability, including the role of anthropogenic regulation. The review focuses on continental and regional-scale prediction that underpins operational design and long-term resource planning and management in Canada. While there are significant process-based changes being experienced within Canadian catchments that are equally—if not more so—critical for community water availability, the focus of this review is on the cumulative effects of climate change and anthropogenic regulation for the Canadian freshwater supply.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.