Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021-2050, and far future: 2071-2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models-Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment-European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment.

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland

Marcinkowski

Piniewski

Kardel

et al. 2017

“…Furthermore, since river discharge data in the model was not generated from rainfall-runoff model, and no future predictions were made by the MIKE HYDRO model, the accuracy of the simulation results would not be largely affected by the absence of validation. Other authors have also experienced similar difficulties when monitoring data were limited [28,29].…”

Section: Discharge and Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 98%

Large-Scale Hydrological Modeling and Decision-Making for Agricultural Water Consumption and Allocation in the Main Stem Tarim River, China

Disse

et al. 2015

Abstract:A large-scale hydrological model (MIKE HYDRO) was established for the purpose of sustainable agricultural water management in the main stem Tarim River, located in northwest China. In this arid region, agricultural water consumption and allocation management are crucial to address the conflicts among irrigation water users from upstream to downstream. The results of model calibration indicated a close correlation between simulated and observed values. Scenarios with the change on irrigation strategies and land use distributions were investigated. Irrigation scenarios revealed that the available irrigation water has significant and varying effects on the yields of different crops. Irrigation water saving could reach up to 40% in the water-saving irrigation scenario. Land use scenarios illustrated that an increase of farmland area in the lower reach gravely aggravated the water deficit, while a decrease of farmland in the upper reaches resulted in considerable benefits for all sub-catchments. A substitution of crops was also investigated, which demonstrated OPEN ACCESSWater 2015, 7 2822 the potential for saving considerable amounts of irrigation water in upper and middle reaches. Overall, the results of this study provide a scientific basis for decision-making on agricultural water consumption and allocation in the study area.

“…Their results showed on average a decrease in water yield of 9%-15% for the period 2021-2050. Another study, carried out by Molina-Navarro et al [42] estimated an average decrease in runoff of 22% for 2045-2064 using climate data based on the A1B emission scenario and a set of regional climate projections provided by the Spanish meteorological service. D'Agostino et al [43] used climate data based on the temperature and precipitation changes projected by a single GCM for their case study area and estimated as well an average decrease in streamflow of 16%-25% by the year 2050.…”

Section: Changes In Major Water Cycle Components (A) Climate Change Imentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, to our knowledge, there are only few studies considering land use changes in combination with climate change in the Mediterranean region (e.g., [41][42][43]46]), however in none of these catchments, except for one, water management aspects were considered. Still, some similarities to these studies can be found.…”

Section: (B) Combined Scenario Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

Stefanova

Hesse

Krysanova

2015

Abstract:Climate projections agree on a dryer and warmer future for the Mediterranean. Consequently, the region is likely to face serious problems regarding water availability and quality in the future. We investigated potential climate change impacts, alone (for three scenario periods) and in combination with four socio-economic scenarios (for the near future) on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, whose economy relies on irrigated agriculture and tourism. For that, the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) was applied to the drainage area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, using a set of 15 climate scenarios and different land use maps and management settings. We assessed the long-term average seasonal and annual changes in generated runoff, groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration in the catchment, as well as on water inflow and nutrients input to the lagoon. The projected average annual changes in precipitation are small for the first scenario period, and so are the simulated impacts on all investigated components, on average. The negative trend of potential climate change impacts on water resources (i.e., decrease in all analyzed components) becomes pronounced in the second and third scenario periods. The applied socio-economic scenarios intensify, reduce or even reverse the climate-induced impacts, depending on the assumed land use and management changes. OPEN ACCESSWater 2015, 7 1539