Hydrologic impacts of projected future climate change in the Lake Michigan region

Cherkauer, Keith A.; Sinha, Tushar

doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2009.11.012

Cited by 96 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(39 reference statements)

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“…Most of the highlights are in line with many site-specific studies on hydropower and climate in most of the regions of the world. The regions of Europe, US and Canada all have projections similar to results obtained in the studies [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]. Table 5 shows that 2931 TWh of hydro-electricity were produced in year 2005.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 62%

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

2016

Climate Change and the Future of Sustainability

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Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world's total power supply and is the world's most dominant (86%) source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM) simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS), based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation), national sites, FAO (water resources) and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases) in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005) generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but Energies 2012, 5 306 also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this evaluation, it has been concluded that even if individual countries and regions may experience significant impacts, climate change will not lead to significant changes in the global hydropower generation, at least for the existing hydropower system.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 62%

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

2016

Climate Change and the Future of Sustainability

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“…increased urbanization with reforestation) augment or reduce the impacts of future climate changes? Future climate projections for the region indicate that precipitation will increase, snow cover will melt earlier and summers will be drier but punctuated with more intense convective storms leading to an increase in the flashiness of summer streamflow (Cherkauer and Sinha, 2010). The increased urbanization that is projected in the 2030 land cover is also likely to produce more flashiness with greater magnitude flood peaks (Yang et al, 2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States

Mishra¹,

Cherkauer²,

Niyogi³

et al. 2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

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109

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This study examines the relative impact of regional land-cover/land-use patterns and projected future climate change on hydrologic processes. Historic, present and projected future land cover data were used to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model using observed meteorological forcing data for 1983-2007 over Wisconsin (USA). The current and projected future (year 2030) land cover data were developed using the land transformation model (LTM). The VIC model simulations were driven using downscaled and bias-corrected projected future climate forcing from three different Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 general circulation models (GCMs): HadCM3, PCM and GFDL. Sensitivity results conducted on a single grid cell show that annual average surface runoff and baseflow were increased by 8 and 6 mm, respectively, while evapotranspiration was reduced by 15 mm when a fully forested grid was converted to cropland. Results also indicate that annual average net radiation and sensible heat flux were reduced considerably due to forest-to-cropland conversion, and the reduction was more prominent in winter and spring seasons due to effect of snow albedo. Forest-to-cropland conversion also resulted in increased latent heat flux in summer (JJA) while this land transformation increased the snow water equivalent in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM). Complete conversion of forest to cropland resulted in a decrease of the radiative surface temperature on an annual basis with more cooling occurring in winter and summer. Impacts of historic deforestation were similar to what was expected based on a single grid sensitivity analysis.

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“…In particular, scientists need to account for the physicalgeographic characteristics (e.g., the Great Lakes, coastlines, and mountain ranges) that play a significant role in the North America climate and also need to consider the feedback between the biosphere and atmosphere. supply of freshwater to the lakes comes from land surface runoff from the Great Lakes drainage basin, meaning that land usage has the potential to greatly impact water quality and lake levels (Cherkauer & Sinha 2010).…”

Section: Environmental Adaptation Research Group (Eargmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wetter springs might affect planting dates, increased flooding and storms could damage crops, and drier summers or longer drought could reduce yields. (Cherkauer & Sinha, 2010). In 2008, the major corn producing states of the upper Midwest experienced extreme flooding due to excess rainfalls.…”

Section: Energy Cropsmentioning

confidence: 99%

iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region?

Rice¹,

Runci²,

Moss³

et al. 2010

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The increasing interest in regional modeling of climate change and associated decisions regarding mitigation and adaptation highlights the need to address the uncertainties that persist in projecting future climate change. Decision makers need tools and information to evaluate the implications of uncertainty for decisions that must be made before uncertainties can be reduced or resolved.Through its integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM) initiative, PNNL is developing a modeling framework to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and related uncertainties. This framework is intended as a research tool for the scientific community to explore regional mitigation and adaptation decisions, constraints, and opportunities under alternate climate policy and climate change futures. The initiative is also intended to encompass research into regional decision makers' needs for information and analysis regarding mitigation and adaptation in the context of uncertainty. This research will help guide the development of iRESM's capabilities and the communication of its results. This paper presents the results of the initial research into decision support needs for the first iRESM pilot region: the US Midwest. The region is defined to include the following 14 states: Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.The research includes interviews with regional stakeholders and a review of the published literature on mitigation and adaptation alternatives in the Midwest. The findings show that researchers as well as decision and policy makers in the Midwest are concerned about climate change impacts across a wide range of human and environmental systems and are focused on understanding the primary mitigation and adaptation opportunities and challenges within the region.The primary systems of concern for adaptation are in the areas of water resources, urban infrastructure, agriculture, recreation, ecosystems, forest management, and transportation. Potential adaptations include infrastructure modifications, technological developments, institutional changes, and ecosystem protection, enhancement, and manipulation. In the area of mitigation, the primary issues and uncertainties generally are related to: a. differential state renewable portfolio standards (RPS) b. the relative economics of technologies that reduce or eliminate GHG emissions compared to traditional technologies c. the viability of carbon storage alternatives (in both geological formations and terrestrial ecosystems).The findings demonstrate a need for better information on the interactions of socioeconomic development, climate change, natural resources, and adaptation and mitigation options. To support policy, investment, and risk management decisions, models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale such as iRESM need to be developed to better integrate climate, ecosystem, and energyecon...

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Hydrologic impacts of projected future climate change in the Lake Michigan region

Cited by 96 publications

References 41 publications

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States

iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region?

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