A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States

Abstract

This study examines the relative impact of regional land-cover/land-use patterns and projected future climate change on hydrologic processes. Historic, present and projected future land cover data were used to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model using observed meteorological forcing data for 1983-2007 over Wisconsin (USA). The current and projected future (year 2030) land cover data were developed using the land transformation model (LTM). The VIC model simulations were driven using downscaled and bias-corrected projected future climate forcing from three different Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 general circulation models (GCMs): HadCM3, PCM and GFDL. Sensitivity results conducted on a single grid cell show that annual average surface runoff and baseflow were increased by 8 and 6 mm, respectively, while evapotranspiration was reduced by 15 mm when a fully forested grid was converted to cropland. Results also indicate that annual average net radiation and sensible heat flux were reduced considerably due to forest-to-cropland conversion, and the reduction was more prominent in winter and spring seasons due to effect of snow albedo. Forest-to-cropland conversion also resulted in increased latent heat flux in summer (JJA) while this land transformation increased the snow water equivalent in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM). Complete conversion of forest to cropland resulted in a decrease of the radiative surface temperature on an annual basis with more cooling occurring in winter and summer. Impacts of historic deforestation were similar to what was expected based on a single grid sensitivity analysis.

One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

“…The increased annual flow, higher snowmelt and lower summer flow tend to be similar between the 2030s and 2050s but further accentuate by the 2080s. The effects of climate change on natural flow over the US Midwest are consistent with the findings of others (Mishra et al, 2010;CCSP, 2008).…”

“…The domain includes the Missouri, Upper Mississippi and Ohio River basins ( mostly rainfed over the Upper Mississippi, Ohio and Northern Missouri river basins. Natural flow has been shown, at least over the Upper Mississippi river basin (Frans et al, 2013;Mishra et al, 2010), to be more sensitive to climate change than to land use change. However, this region represents many crosscutting issues on climate, energy, land use, and water, including water quality.…”

“…At regional scales, assessments of climate change impacts on water resources have been performed using hydrologic models driven by climate change scenarios, with or without water management and usually assuming no change in land use (e.g., Backlund et al, 2008). Recently some analyses have been performed combining the effect of land use change and climate change on natural water resources, with land use primarily driven by population and urbanization while changes in agriculture or effects of reservoir operations are not considered (Cuo et al, 2011;Mishra et al, 2010). Although these studies have provided important insights on future changes in water resources driven by climate change and/or land use change, with or without adaptation by water management, none have fully reconciled the socioeconomic, land use, energy, water demand, and climate drivers used to assess the hydrologic impacts and water management options.…”

Catalysis for Biomass and CO2 Use Through Solar Energy: Opening New Scenarios for a Sustainable and Low-Carbon Chemical Production

“…The baseline scenario represents land use categories and monthly phenology based on satellite derived data from 1991-1995, and the biofuel scenario represents projected alternative (i.e., switchgrass) land use categories ( Figure 1) with identical atmospheric forcing data. Following the recent studies [16,[31][32] that have used 2-years as a minimum length for spinup, we discarded the first two years (i.e., 1979 and 1980) of each simulation to allow for adjustment of the land surface with the atmosphere. Details of the model configuration are provided in the Anderson et al [19], and thus are not described here.…”

“…Change in land cover thus has the potential to impact local and regional climate through alteration of the energy and moisture balances of the land surface [14][15][16][17][18]. The longer growing season and greener vegetative cover of biofuel crops result in higher water loss to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration (ET), decline in soil water depth [17,19] and reduced surface runoff [20] relative to annual cropping systems.…”