Hydroclimate extremes in a north Australian drought reconstruction asymmetrically linked with Central Pacific Sea surface temperatures

Allen, Kathryn; Freund, Mandy; Palmer, Jonathan; Simkin, Rohan; Williams, Laura; Brookhouse, Matthew; Cook, Edward R.; Stewart, Stephen B.; Baker, Patrick J.

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103329

Cited by 16 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Our investigation of the climate data has also been limited to particular seasons covered by the annually resolved palaeoclimate reconstructions. Although this may limit the extent of inference regarding CCEs that lead to the observed impacts, the tropics are highly seasonal and previous work has indicated that the hydroclimate reconstructions largely capture changes in interannual wet season variability 42 . In addition, the IOD and ENSO are subject to seasonal phase-locking.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 e). Two gridded drought index reconstructions based on the Standardised Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI3; Mar–May) 42 and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI; Dec–Feb 51 ) exist and extend back to 1762 and 1500 respectively. Like the reconstructed PDSI, instrumentally based PDSI data cover the area around the Gulf of Carpentaria across to Darwin (Fig.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 e). Two slightly different instrumental SPEI datasets include the annual March–May SPEI3 data and a shorter SPEI3 data set available at monthly resolution (mSPEI3) for the same region covered by the SPEI3 reconstruction 42 (Fig. 1 e).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Compound climate extremes driving recent sub-continental tree mortality in northern Australia have no precedent in recent centuries

Allen

Verdon‐Kidd

Sippo

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Compound climate extremes (CCEs) can have significant and persistent environmental impacts on ecosystems. However, knowledge of the occurrence of CCEs beyond the past ~ 50 years, and hence their ecological impacts, is limited. Here, we place the widespread 2015–16 mangrove dieback and the more recent 2020 inland native forest dieback events in northern Australia into a longer historical context using locally relevant palaeoclimate records. Over recent centuries, multiple occurrences of analogous antecedent and coincident climate conditions associated with the mangrove dieback event were identified in this compilation. However, rising sea level—a key antecedent condition—over the three decades prior to the mangrove dieback is unprecedented in the past 220 years. Similarly, dieback in inland forests and savannas was associated with a multi-decadal wetting trend followed by the longest and most intense drought conditions of the past 250 years, coupled with rising temperatures. While many ecological communities may have experienced CCEs in past centuries, the addition of new environmental stressors associated with varying aspects of global change may exceed their thresholds of resilience. Palaeoclimate compilations provide the much-needed longer term context to better assess frequency and changes in some types of CCEs and their environmental impacts.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Compound climate extremes driving recent sub-continental tree mortality in northern Australia have no precedent in recent centuries

Allen

Verdon‐Kidd

Sippo

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There are only a few high-resolution (annual), multi-century reconstructions of hydroclimate variability that are based on local proxy records from mainland Australia. These include four reconstructions based on tree-ring records (Heinrich et al 2008;Cullen and Grierson 2009;O'Donnell et al 2015;Allen et al 2020) and a reconstruction based on a coral record from the Great Barrier Reef (Lough 2007(Lough , 2011. Proxy records that are remote from the Australian mainland have been used to reconstruct hydroclimate variability in eastern Australia, including tree-ring records from Indonesia, New Zealand and Tasmania (Palmer et al 2015;Cook et al 2016) as well as ice core records from Antarctica (e.g., Vance et al 2013Vance et al , 2015Tozer et al 2016;Kiem et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Megadroughts and pluvials in southwest Australia: 1350–2017 CE

O’Donnell

McCaw²,

Cook

et al. 2021

Clim Dyn

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Declining winter rainfall coupled with recent prolonged drought poses significant risks to water resources and agriculture across southern Australia. While rainfall declines over recent decades are largely consistent with modelled climate change scenarios, particularly for southwest Australia, the significance of these declines is yet to be assessed within the context of long-term hydroclimatic variability. Here, we present a new 668-year (1350–2017 CE) tree-ring reconstruction of autumn–winter rainfall over inland southwest Australia. This record reveals that a recent decline in rainfall over inland southwest Australia (since 2000 CE) is not unusual in terms of either magnitude or duration relative to rainfall variability over the last seven centuries. Drought periods of greater magnitude and duration than those in the instrumental record occurred prior to 1900 CE, including two ‘megadroughts’ of > 30 years duration in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. By contrast, the wettest > decadal periods of the last seven centuries occurred after 1900 CE, making the twentieth century the wettest of the last seven centuries. We conclude that the instrumental rainfall record (since ~ 1900 CE) does not capture the full scale of natural hydroclimatic variability for inland southwest Australia and that the risk of prolonged droughts in the region is likely much higher than currently estimated.

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“…IOD can enhance or mitigate ENSO and contributes to the inter-annual variability of rainfall over Australia [26,27]. Although some studies have investigated and discussed the relationships between global climate indices and rainfall over Australia in recent decades [26][27][28][29][30][31][32], the linkage between the specific Indo-Pacific climate mode and TWS variability has not been extensively investigated, especially for the periods of drought. And the impact of certain climate variability on Australia's climate generally changes over time [33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Two Severe Prolonged Hydrological Droughts Analysis over Mainland Australia Using GRACE Satellite Data

et al. 2021

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In recent years, many droughts have happened over mainland Australia, especially the two severe prolonged droughts, from 2006 to 2009 and 2018 to 2020, resulting in serious water scarcity. Therefore, using the Total Storage Deficit Index (TSDI) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), we analyzed the two severe prolonged droughts from the perspective of the affected area, spatial evolution, frequency, severity and drought driving factors. The results show that the affected area of Drought 2006–2009 ranged from 57% to 95%, and that of Drought 2018–2020 ranged from 45% to 95%. Drought 2006–2009 took its rise in southeastern Australia and gradually spread to the central part. Drought 2018–2020 originated in the southwest corner of the Northern Territory and northern New South Wales, and gradually expanded to Western Australia and the whole New South Wales respectively. During Drought 2006–2009, Victoria suffered drought all months, including 59% mild drought and 41% moderate drought, North Territory had the highest drought severity of 44.26 and Victoria ranked the second high with the severity of 35.51 (cm months). For Drought 2018–2020, Northern Territory was also dominated by drought all months, including 92% mild drought and 8% moderate drought, the drought severities were in North Territory and Western Australia with 52.19 and 31.44 (cm months), respectively. Finally, the correlation coefficients between the two droughts and Indo-Pacific climate variability including El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are computed. By comparing the correlation coefficients of Drought 2018–2020 with Drought 2006–2009, we find that the impact of the El Niño on the hydrological drought becomes weaker while IOD is stronger, and the role of Southern Oscillation on droughts is diverse with the quite different spatial patterns. The results from Fourier analysis confirm that the two hydrological droughts are all related to Indo-Pacific climate variability but with slightly different driving mechanisms.

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Hydroclimate extremes in a north Australian drought reconstruction asymmetrically linked with Central Pacific Sea surface temperatures

Cited by 16 publications

References 50 publications

Compound climate extremes driving recent sub-continental tree mortality in northern Australia have no precedent in recent centuries

Compound climate extremes driving recent sub-continental tree mortality in northern Australia have no precedent in recent centuries

Megadroughts and pluvials in southwest Australia: 1350–2017 CE

Two Severe Prolonged Hydrological Droughts Analysis over Mainland Australia Using GRACE Satellite Data

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