Global climate change is likely to affect reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) and the use of water resources for vegetation management. Our goals were to identify spatio-temporal characteristics of ET 0 and factors controlling the change in ET 0 and to project spatio-temporal changes in the Qilian Mountains of China under the future climate conditions. Changes in ET 0 were estimated by the Penman-Monteith method for 22 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2015. We quantified the attributions of climatic factors with the differentiation equation method. Then, we assessed the spatio-temporal changes in projected ET 0 with CanESM2 model outputs and statistical downscaling model for three representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for years 2016-2100. We found that annual ET 0 averaged across the region was 1001.5 mm, with an insignificant decrease of −0.43 mm/year during 1960-2015. The lowest values were present in the alpine region in the central area, while the highest ET 0 was detected in the western region. An annual and seasonal "evaporation paradox" existed in the Qilian Mountains during the past few decades. Mean daily air temperature measured (T mean ) and wind speed (U 2 ) were the dominant factors in ET 0 change. However, the decreasing trend in ET 0 may be due to a diminished effect of T mean triggered by short-wave radiation (R s ), actual vapour pressure (e a ), and wind speed (U 2 ), but especially by the substantial reduction in U 2 at most stations. Compared with the baseline, ET 0 is likely to increase by 6. 31-7.20, 6.11-10.41, and 6.58-17.66%, respectively, under RCP scenarios of 2.6 (very low forcing scenario), 4.5 (medium stabilization scenario), and 8.5 (very high emission scenario), but RCP2.6 ET 0 rates level off and even decline after 2050 while RCP4.5 rates climb only marginally after 2050. Thus, ET 0 projected with the CanESM2 model displayed an upwards trend in the Qilian Mountains, especially the central alpine region.