Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges Introduction to the Special Issue of The Energy Journal

Hourcade, Jean-Charles; Jaccard, Mark; Bataille, Chris; Ghersi, Frédéric

doi:10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-volsi2006-nosi2-1

Cited by 199 publications

(126 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(3 reference statements)

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“…Bottom-up energy system models are a type of widely-used energyenvironmental-economic models that support energy and climate change policies [27,28]. Bottom-up energy system models rely on a detailed technology representation of the whole energy system from energy resources, through energy conversion and transmission, to energy end use.…”

Section: Swiss Expanse and Mgamentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensuring diversity of national energy scenarios: Bottom-up energy system model with Modeling to Generate Alternatives

Berntsen

Trutnevyte

2017

Energy

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Long-range energy scenarios are commonly used to inform national energy policy decisions. Although the scenario approach aims to expand the spectrum of futures considered, in the past energy scenarios have not been diverse enough to include less expected real-world developments. We use a bottom-up energy system model EXPANSE with Modeling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) to assess the diversity of the existing ensemble of multi-organization, multi-model Swiss electricity supply scenarios. We show that both for 2035 and 2050 existing scenarios cover well the various possibilities in deployment of individual electricity generation technologies in terms of installed capacity or produced electricity. When analyzing scenarios as a whole, we find that in 2035 there is a lack of scenarios with high electricity demand and greater deployment of renewable technologies occurring simultaneously, as well as scenarios with a negligible or negative share of net electricity import. In 2050, there is also a lack of scenarios that depict high electricity demand and conservative deployment of new renewable technologies, especially solar PV. We propose six additional scenarios to be included to increase the diversity of the ensemble of Swiss electricity supply scenarios and achieve better understanding of the future possibilities and uncertainties.

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Section: Swiss Expanse and Mgamentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensuring diversity of national energy scenarios: Bottom-up energy system model with Modeling to Generate Alternatives

Berntsen

Trutnevyte

2017

Energy

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“…Increasing the degree of technological detail brings the approach closer to the hybrid modeling described by Hourcade et al (2006) and laid out by Böhringer and Rutherford (2008). A carbon price can lead to adjustments in the production process in three ways: a shift in the production structure away from carbon-intensive inputs, end-of-pipe abatement measures for the GHGs other than energy-related CO 2 , and a reduction of output.…”

Section: Marginal Abatement Cost Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Equity, Emissions Allowance Trading and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change

et al. 2017

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The Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), held in Paris in December 2015, resulted in voluntary greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction pledges, independent of each other, by 195 countries. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the equity implications of this "bottom-up" approach to climate change negotiations in two major ways. First we analyze the GHG reduction targets specified in the COP21 agreement prior to any emissions trading in terms of the Gini Coefficient equity metric. We also compare the pledges with specific equity principles proposed by developing countries for many years, such as the Egalitarian and Ability to Pay equity. Second, we analyze the equity outcomes after emissions trading takes place for a sample of countries/regions. We find that international policy coordination through a system of tradable GHG emissions allowances can greatly lower the cost to all participants of reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. An emissions trading system involving all countries and regions that made unconditional pledges at COP21 could reduce total GHG mitigation costs from an estimated $1.71 trillion to $0.4 trillion (in 2015 dollars), a savings of 77%. The ensuing allowance sales revenues would greatly enhance the capability of lower-income countries to meet their COP21 pledges. Moreover, the cost-savings in high-income countries would facilitate contributions to the promised fund of $100 billion per year to assist climate policy implementation in low-income countries.

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“…A classic taxonomy of energy economic models, developed by Hourcade et al [9], identifies macro-economics, technological detail, and micro-economic realism as the key dimensions of study required for future advancement of the field. We argue in this paper that improving the representation of decision making and actor dynamics in energy models requires not only a better depiction of investment choices in the micro-economic sense, but also a broader set of structural changes aimed at improving overall societal realism.…”

Section: Modelling Energy Transitions In "Second-best" Policy Worldsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia

Strachan

2017

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions

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The speed at which established socioeconomic and technological systems can be adapted to alternatives that are compatible with a climate stabilised, 2°C world remains unknown. Quantitative models used for assessing this challenge typically make a number of arguably optimistic assumptions regarding human behaviour and decision making. This often restricts the insights produced to futures approximating a so-called first-best policy landscape. However, empirical studies of socio-technical change have shown that technological diffusion is often influenced by actors and institutions interacting under less ideal, second-best conditions. This paper quantifies these factors in a formal energy model as landscape and actor inertia and employs them for the first time in BLUE, a dynamic stochastic socio-technical simulation of technology diffusion, energy and emissions inspired by the multi-level perspective. Using the UK energy system as an example, the results illustrate how socio-technical inertia may significantly blunt future efforts to achieve climate targets. KeywordsSocio-technical change; transitions; energy systems; modelling; decarbonisation; climate policy; Highlights We present a quantitative socio-technical energy transitions model inspired by the Multi-Level Perspective  BLUE is a stochastic system dynamic model that features multiple actors with detailed behavioural parameters  The feasibility of UK climate targets is explored under landscape and actor inertia  The results show that actor inertia may significantly increase the difficulty of achieving climate targets  The results also show the importance of taking socio-technical perspectives on energy transitions

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Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges Introduction to the Special Issue of The Energy Journal

Cited by 199 publications

References 19 publications

Ensuring diversity of national energy scenarios: Bottom-up energy system model with Modeling to Generate Alternatives

Ensuring diversity of national energy scenarios: Bottom-up energy system model with Modeling to Generate Alternatives

Equity, Emissions Allowance Trading and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change

Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia

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