Hybrid Bottom-up/Top-down Energy and Economy Outlooks: A Review of IMACLIM-S Experiments

Ghersi, Frédéric

doi:10.3389/fenvs.2015.00074

Cited by 17 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…While standard top-down models are incapable of incorporating technical information on energy systems, bottom-up models do not account for the macroeconomic costs, description of investment markets and feedbacks between macroeconomic aspects and the transition of energy systems. To generate a consistent picture of the Indian energy-economy system, we resort to model coupling through the iterative exchange of outputs and inputs up to numerical convergence, as discussed in Ghersi (2015). This convergence method has been used in the past, for example in the Swedish (Krook-Riekkola, Berg, Ahlgren, & Söderholm, 2017) and Portuguese (Fortes, Simões, Seixas, Van Regemorter, & Ferreira, 2013) contexts.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The IMACLIM model is a multi-sectoral dynamic recursive model 1 that pictures economic growth as proceeding from exogenous increases of labour supply and labour productivity. It is specifically designed to accommodate exogenous BU information on energy supply, demand and trade (Ghersi, 2015), thereby renouncing microfoundation of the producers' and consumer's energy supply and consumption behaviours in favour of forced technical coefficients. IMACLIM-IND extends the process to the capital intensity of important non-energy sectors, building on the annualized investment costs per unit output reported by AIM/Enduse for the iron & steel, cement, chemical & petrochemical, textile and aluminium sectors.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Tables D1-D5 below we provide the values of energy-economy variables in the pre-iterations and post-iterations stages of IMACLIM-IND and AIM/Enduse coupling process. The rationale behind the coupling of bottom-up and top-down models is investigated in Hourcade et al (2006) and Ghersi (2015). This approach benefits from the strengths (and avoids the weaknesses) of both models.…”

Section: Disclosure Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways

et al. 2019

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Although a rapidly growing economy, India faces many challenges, including in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. Moreover, post-2020 climate actions outlined in India's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement envision development along low-carbon emission pathways. With coal providing almost three-quarters of Indian electricity, achieving such targets will have wide-ranging implications for economic activity. Assessing such implications is the focus of our research. To do so, we use a hybrid modelling architecture that combines the strengths of the AIM/Enduse bottom-up model of energy systems and the IMACLIM top-down economy-wide model. This hybrid architecture rests upon an original dataset that brings together national accounting, energy balance and energy price data. We analyse four scenarios ranging to midcentury: business-as-usual (BAU), 2°C, sustainable 2°C and 1.5°C. Our 2°C pathway proves compatible with economic growth close to the 6% yearly rate of BAU from 2012 to 2050, at the cost of reduced household consumption but with significant positive impact on foreign debt accumulation. The latter impact stems from improvement of the trade balance, whose current large deficit is the primary cause of high fossil fuel imports. Further mitigation effort backing our 1.5°C scenario shows slightly higher annual GDP growth, thereby revealing potential synergies between deep environmental performance and economic growth. Structural change assumptions common to our scenarios significantly transform the activity shares of sectors. The envisioned transition will require appropriate policies, notably to manage the conflicting interests of entrenched players in traditional sectors like coal and oil, and the emerging players of the low-carbon economy. Key policy insights. Low carbon pathways are compatible with Indian growth despite their high investment costs. Moving away from fossil fuel-based energy systems would result in foreign exchange savings to the tune of $1 trillion from 2012 to 2050 for oil imports.. Achieving deep decarbonization in India requires higher mobilized capital in renewables and energy efficiency enhancements.. Phasing out fossil fuels would, however, require careful balancing of interests between conventional and emerging sector players through just transitions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Disclosure Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways

et al. 2019

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“…In the top-down approach, a set of criteria and indicators initially generated is used by a team of experts who adapt and modify this set according to the local situation. In the bottom-up approach, local actors are actively involved in a participatory manner by proposing criteria and indicators based on their perception of the individual situation [146,147].…”

Section: Participationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tools for Measuring Energy Sustainability: A Comparative Review

et al. 2020

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This paper is intended to perform a comparative and qualitative review among eight tools to measure energy sustainability. Therefore, it was necessary to create a theoretical and conceptual framework based on four criterias of selection and six categories of comparison. In this work, the conceptual bases that supported the research and the methodology created to carry out the comparative review will be presented. This analysis was based on the intrinsic concepts of energy sustainability of each of the reviewed tools with a critical qualitative analysis. Some conclusions shown through the conceptual framework developed that it was possible to apply an innovative methodology to qualitatively compare different tools to measure sustainability. The importance of this reflects the difficulty of conceptualizing the subjectivity of sustainable development, as shown throughout the paper, where it is often not possible to obtain a measurable result since the measured phenomenon is too complex to reduce it to a numerical value.

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“…One foremost constraint is full exogeneity of the energy system, on account of KLEM being designed to couple with BU energy modelling (Ghersi, 2015). The growth trajectories traced by KLEM thus build around exogenous energy volumes.…”

Section: A Constrained Solow Growth Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms

2019

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 We calibrate a hybrid dynamic recursive CGE model of Saudi Arabia on original data  We acknowledge the Saudi specifics of currency peg and investment stability  We explore 3 scenarios of international and domestic energy prices  Low global prices affect Saudi GDP little but lower national and public savings  Reformed domestic prices restore activity but not national or public savings

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Hybrid Bottom-up/Top-down Energy and Economy Outlooks: A Review of IMACLIM-S Experiments

Abstract: Keywords: hybrid energy economy modeling, induced production frontier, technical change modeling, hybrid energy economy accounts, climate and energy policy modeling Ghersi Surveying IMACLIM-S Hybrid Modeling Experiments

Cited by 17 publications

References 37 publications

Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways

Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways

Tools for Measuring Energy Sustainability: A Comparative Review

Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms

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