Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms

Abstract

 We calibrate a hybrid dynamic recursive CGE model of Saudi Arabia on original data  We acknowledge the Saudi specifics of currency peg and investment stability  We explore 3 scenarios of international and domestic energy prices  Low global prices affect Saudi GDP little but lower national and public savings  Reformed domestic prices restore activity but not national or public savings

Projecting Saudi Sectoral Electricity Demand in 2030 Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model

“…These issues include behavior within the oil market (De Santis 2003), the abrogation of trade tariffs (Al-Hawwas 2010) and exchange rate policies (Al-Thumairi 2012). Soummane et al (2019) and Soummane et al (2022) recently developed a CGE model for the Kingdom that acknowledges certain features of the Saudi economy. This model includes administered energy prices within a detailed representation of the energy sector to assess economic diversification outcomes.…”

“…This study employs IMACLIM-SAU, an economy-wide dynamic CGE model that embodies specific features of the Saudi economy. We extend Soummane et al (2019) and Soummane et al (2022) by improving the model's representation of electricity demand. The model covers 13 sectors, as reported in Table 1.…”

Policies to Nationalize the Private Sector Labor Force in a Matching Model with Public Jobs and Quotas

“…Prior studies have constructed models to assess the consequences of price deregulation on the energy system (Matar et al 2015) and the broader macroeconomic consequences (Blazquez, Hunt, and Manzano 2017;Soummane, Ghersi, and Lefevre 2019;Durand-Lasserve et al 2020). These studies propose various compensation mechanisms to mitigate the adverse effects of increasing domestic fuel prices on household incomes and industrial competitiveness.…”

Sectoral and Economy-Wide Effects of Domestic Energy Price Reforms in Saudi Arabia

“…This type of approach helps to assess policies that stimulate the economy, or some sectors in particular, while meeting some budget consolidation objectives. Soummane et al (2019) use a recursive CGE model calibrated on a 2013 social accounting matrix (SAM) and exogenous energy trajectories drawn from the KEM model. They show that reforms aimed at improving energy efficiency, when combined with directing additional oil export revenues into supporting selected industries, can partially offset the detrimental impacts of an exogenous drop in international oil prices.…”