Human Life Span Stopped Increasing: Why?

Abstract

To account for the cessation of human life span increase in developed countries, we have studied the Swedish vital statistics over the period of 1901–1978. Approximating age-related mortality dynamics as the sum of the constant (age-independent mortality) and exponential (age-dependent mortality), we have discovered a striking phenomenon consisting in historical stability of age-dependent mortality. It appeared that decrease in total mortality was exclusively due to age-independent mortality which is close now to the limiting (zero) level. The results obtained prove the existence of the biological limit for the average life span and show that the conventional reserves for decrease in mortality have been exhausted. Thus, the problem of life prolongation requires a new way of thinking.

Actuarial Aging Rate Is Not Constant within the Human Life Span

“…In spite of a large number of mathematical forms for the function put forward after equations 1 and 2 to describe the force of mortality versus age [Perks, 1932;Weibull, 1951;and others], only the Gompertz for mula (equation 1) and especially the Gompertz-Makeham formula (equation 2) have proved able to withstand checking by time and to remain the most adequate as applied to the description of the dynamics of human mortality [Strehler, 1962;Sacher, 1978;Abernethy, 1979;Gavrilov et al, 1983], At the same time, some recent publica tions demonstrate that the real present day age dynamics of human mortality may de viate from the exponential form within indi vidual age intervals [Depoid, 1973;Economos, 1982;Pakin and Hrisanov, 1984;Gavri lov and Gavrilova, 1986]. These studies stim ulated our interest, and we decided to investi gate the character of aging rate changes with advancing age in greater detail.…”

Is Life Expectancy of French Women Going to Plateau and Oscillate?

“…Obviously, if it were possible to protect very old women against deadly threats, their mortality rates could still decrease and e0 increase without such oscillations, even if e0 does not reach 100 years and more, as hypothesised by Vaupel [2]. Indeed, stagnation of e0 is not a new phenomenon and, for instance, e0 stagnated in Sweden during the 1970s [15]. It could thus be argued that we face a new stagnation and that, one day, e0 will resume its increase.…”

Mathematical Mortality Models and Modeling Urbanization?s Influence on Deaths in Jamaica

“…The mortality discourse commenced as early as the seventeenth century with John Graunt [1] and this has increased with new tenets [2][3][4][5][6]. Unlike other studies in the mortality discourse, this research covers area-time specific mortality models, urbanization and the sex ratio explain mortality as well as the potency of each factor on mortality.…”

“…Mortality is the first constitutent of the study of demography and it contributes to many aspects of the discipline to include life expectancy, population parameters (i.e., growth rate, age structure), late-life mortality deceleration, health, stable population and life tables [2][3][4][5][6]. Outside of the established tenets of mortality (i.e., life expectancy, life tables, stable population, age structure, population projection and population growth rate), a Caribbean health demographer, Paul Andrew Bourne, along with other scholars have added an extensive body of literature on mortality to include and not limited to deaths at older ages (75 + years), the economics of mortality at older ages, and mortality and health [7][8][9][10] as well as murder economics [11].…”