Human influence has intensified extreme precipitation in North America

Kirchmeier‐Young, Megan C.; Zhang, Xuebin

doi:10.1073/pnas.1921628117

Cited by 175 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Storms will increase in severity and frequency as a result of climate change [42][43][44]. High winds, hail, and heavy rainfall can directly damage crops and can lead to extensive surface flooding, landslides, and structural damage; in the case of tropical cyclones, these may also be accompanied by deadly coastal storm surges causing millions of dollars in damage [45][46][47].…”

Section: Climate Change Hazards: Drought Heat Sea-level Rise and Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Balsari

Dresser

Lee

2020

Curr Envir Health Rpt

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Purpose of Review In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement. Recent Findings Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth’s surface mainly in the Sahara. Summary We find that the post–World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.

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Section: Climate Change Hazards: Drought Heat Sea-level Rise and Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Balsari

Dresser

Lee

2020

Curr Envir Health Rpt

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“…Whereas warmer world temperatures do not directly cause flooding, warmer temperatures enhance the probability of extreme events as the capacity for air to hold water increases with temperature. Recent studies indicate changes in historical precipitation (e.g., Allen and Allen 2019) and the role anthropogenic climate change has on flood events (e.g., Kirchmeier‐Young and Zhang 2020). Norfolk, due to both natural and anthropogenic factors, is sinking, but the seas are also rising as a result of heat‐trapping gases warming the planet.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Hazard Awareness at Old Dominion University: Assessment and Opportunity

Hutton

Allen

2021

Contemporary Water Research

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Building resilience to flooding is a commitment of several universities; however, student interest in flood education programs is unclear. The goals of this research are three‐fold: 1) to determine the origin of flood messaging on the Old Dominion University (ODU) campus, 2) to assess on‐campus flood awareness, and 3) to evaluate the interest in additional flood education. This study evaluates student awareness of flooding via a survey of ODU students and contextual analysis of University warning messages. Many students experienced reduced access to campus as a result of flooding and expressed an interest in additional flood information. Some students reported receiving flood‐related information through in‐class instruction or orientation‐based programming. However, the content varies in detail, and ODU could formally integrate additional resources into outreach and flood education programming. These findings could support the development of a campus wide flood awareness program at ODU and other universities.

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“…First, we will compare each method based on a residual consistency test (Allen et. al., 1999, Kirchmeier-Young et. al., 2020 to determine if the residual between total precipitation and the forced component is consistent with expected natural variability.…”

Section: What Criteria Should Be Used For Comparing Dynamical Statistical and Ml-based Danda Methods?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Separating Climate Signals with Machine Learning

Mahesh

2021

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Focal AreaWe use machine learning (ML) for the attribution of seasonal and extreme precipitation to different signals in the climate system. We compare ML-based attribution methods to traditional detection and attribution (D&A) techniques. Our project aligns with Focal Area 3 of the AI for Earth System Predictability Call for White Papers: "insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated)." Science ChallengeTo better prepare for future changes in the water cycle, it is vital to understand the regional effects of anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability on precipitation. With existing methods, there is uncertainty regarding the regional patterns of these climate processes. We propose using machine learning to decompose seasonal total and extreme precipitation (calculated by Risser et. al., 2019) into components caused by each of the following signals: anthropogenic forcing, internal variability, and modes of natural climate variability (such as El Niño/ Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Pacific North American teleconnection).

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Human influence has intensified extreme precipitation in North America

Cited by 175 publications

References 32 publications

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Flood Hazard Awareness at Old Dominion University: Assessment and Opportunity

Separating Climate Signals with Machine Learning

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