Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Abstract

Purpose of Review In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement. Recent Findings Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth’s surface mainly in the Sahara. Summary We find that the post–World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.

Exploring the temporal patterns and crisis-related risk factors for population displacement in Somalia (2016-2018)

“…Periods of severe drought likely disrupted key harvests and livestock viability, which we speculate may have led to preventive displacement to avoid potential food insecurity ( United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2017 ). Climate- and weather-related displacement is well established in the literature, thus supporting the causal mechanisms and plausibility of this finding ( Balsari et al., 2020 ; McMichael et al., 2012 ; Chowdhury et al., 2020 ; Myers, 2002 ). This association also presented a clear dose-response relationship, i.e.…”

Climate change and global issues in allergy and immunology

“…141,142 These sequelae of climate change have promoted increasing numbers of climate refugees, primarily from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. 143 Although a proactive approach, planned relocation or managed retreat of small islands and coastal communities in response to sea-level rise is a complex process requiring careful planning and consideration of physical and social determinants of health. Vulnerable populations, such as indigenous communities with limited financial resources and poor health status, will be disproportionately affected.…”

Climate change and global health: A call to more research and more action

“…Extreme storms, floods, wildfires, droughts, melting permafrost, sea level rise, and heat—that will render nearly a fifth of the planet too hot for humans by 2070 120 —threaten the food security, livelihoods, homes, and resource access of billions around the world. These climate change‐related factors, described as “threat multiplier[s],” 121 often exacerbate political instability, economic concerns, and conflict—resulting in the displacement of millions (Figure 1). Refugees, internally displaced people, and stateless persons are on the frontlines of the climate emergency.…”