Human impacts on tides overwhelm the effect of sea level rise on extreme water levels in the Rhine–Meuse delta

Vellinga, Nynke; Hoitink, A.J.F.; Vegt, M. van der; Zhang, W.; Hoekstra, P.

doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.04.005

Cited by 58 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Based on a 50 year database of 18 stations, Zhang et al [] found, for example, that water levels in the landward part of the Pearl River Delta show a decreasing trend, while water levels in the middle and lower part show an increasing trend. A similar conclusion applies to the Rhine‐Meuse Delta; Vellinga et al [] found, based on a 70 year database from 13 stations, that although the annual mean water levels rise at the same pace as the mean sea level, the high water and low water yearly extremes generally decrease. Both Zhang et al [] and Vellinga et al [] attribute much of these changes to channel deepening for shipping, yet understanding the underlying physical mechanisms requires a better understanding of long‐wave propagation in branching tidal rivers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…These developments not only exacerbate problems of flood vulnerability but also limit freshwater availability due to enhanced salinity intrusion [ Zhang et al , ], both of which are directly dependent on the interaction of tides with the river discharge. Because of the strongly nonlinear behavior of tidal hydrodynamics [ Parker , ], relative MSL rise in deltas does not directly translate, even with constant morphology, into a uniform rise in extreme sea levels [ Vellinga et al , ]. Moreover, human influences on channel morphology are often overwhelming, greatly altering the interaction of tides, storm surges, and river flood waves.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tidal river dynamics: Implications for deltas

Hoitink

Jay

2016

Reviews of Geophysics

265

226

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Tidal rivers are a vital and little studied nexus between physical oceanography and hydrology.It is only in the last few decades that substantial research efforts have been focused on the interactions of river discharge with tidal waves and storm surges into regions beyond the limit of salinity intrusion, a realm that can extend inland hundreds of kilometers. One key phenomenon resulting from this interaction is the emergence of large fortnightly tides, which are forced long waves with amplitudes that may increase beyond the point where astronomical tides have become extinct. These can be larger than the linear tide itself at more landward locations, and they greatly influence tidal river water levels and wetland inundation. Exploration of the spectral redistribution and attenuation of tidal energy in rivers has led to new appreciation of a wide range of consequences for fluvial and coastal sedimentology, delta evolution, wetland conservation, and salinity intrusion under the influence of sea level rise and delta subsidence. Modern research aims at unifying traditional harmonic tidal analysis, nonparametric regression techniques, and the existing understanding of tidal hydrodynamics to better predict and model tidal river dynamics both in single-thread channels and in branching channel networks. In this context, this review summarizes results from field observations and modeling studies set in tidal river environments as diverse as the Amazon in Brazil, the Columbia, Fraser and Saint Lawrence in North America, the Yangtze and Pearl in China, and the Berau and Mahakam in Indonesia. A description of state-of-the-art methods for a comprehensive analysis of water levels, wave propagation, discharges, and inundation extent in tidal rivers is provided. Implications for lowland river deltas are also discussed in terms of sedimentary deposits, channel bifurcation, avulsion, and salinity intrusion, addressing contemporary research challenges.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tidal river dynamics: Implications for deltas

Hoitink

Jay

2016

Reviews of Geophysics

265

226

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Tidal ranges have similarly doubled for high flows (above 10,000 m 3 /s) in the tidal river part of the Columbia River estuary (Jay et al, ). By contrast, a sharp reduction in tidal range in some Dutch estuaries has occurred, apparently due to changes in resonance associated with port development (Vellinga et al, ). Tidal trends are often larger at estuary stations (order 5–10% per century) than nearby coastal stations (Jay, ).…”

Section: Potential Mechanisms Causing Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications

Haigh

Pickering

Green

et al. 2020

Reviews of Geophysics

174

173

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Scientists and engineers have observed for some time that tidal amplitudes at many locations are shifting considerably due to nonastronomical factors. Here we review comprehensively these important changes in tidal properties, many of which remain poorly understood. Over long geological time scales, tectonic processes drive variations in basin size, depth, and shape and hence the resonant properties of ocean basins. On shorter geological time scales, changes in oceanic tidal properties are dominated by variations in water depth. A growing number of studies have identified widespread, sometimes regionally coherent, positive, and negative trends in tidal constituents and levels during the 19th, 20th, and early 21st centuries. Determining the causes is challenging because a tide measured at a coastal gauge integrates the effects of local, regional, and oceanic changes. Here, we highlight six main factors that can cause changes in measured tidal statistics on local scales and a further eight possible regional/global driving mechanisms. Since only a few studies have combined observations and models, or modeled at a temporal/spatial resolution capable of resolving both ultralocal and large‐scale global changes, the individual contributions from local and regional mechanisms remain uncertain. Nonetheless, modeling studies project that sea level rise and climate change will continue to alter tides over the next several centuries, with regionally coherent modes of change caused by alterations to coastal morphology and ice sheet extent. Hence, a better understanding of the causes and consequences of tidal variations is needed to help assess the implications for coastal defense, risk assessment, and ecological change.

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“…Ocean tides have historically been considered stationary because of their close relationship to astronomical motions (Cartwright & Tayler, 1971), but also for computational convenience. Long-term tidal evolution has been observed at some stations (Cartwright, 1972;Doodson, 1924), and is sometimes a result of harbor modifications (Amin, 1983;Bowen, 1972;Chernetsky et al, 2010;Familkhalili & Talke, 2016;Jay et al, 2011;Vellinga et al, 2014) or changes in the internal tide (Colosi & Munk, 2006;M€ uller, 2012). Recent work has shown that tides are evolving at diverse rates worldwide without any apparent relationship to astronomical forcing (Haigh et al, 2014;Mawdsley et al, 2015;M€ uller et al, 2011;Woodworth, 2010).…”

Section: Changing Ocean Tidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tidal Variability Related to Sea Level Variability in the Pacific Ocean

et al. 2017

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Ocean tides are changing worldwide for reasons unrelated to astronomical forcing. Changes in tidal properties coupled with altered mean sea level (MSL) may yield higher peak water levels and increased occurrence of short‐term exceedance events, such as storm surge and nuisance flooding. Here we investigate the hypothesis that changes in relative sea level are correlated with alterations in tidal amplitudes. Our approach focuses on the correlation between short‐term (monthly to interannual) fluctuations in sea level with changes in tidal properties of major ocean tides (M2, and K1; S2 and O1) at 152 gauges. Results suggest that sea level variability is correlated to interannual tidal variability at most (92%) of tide gauges in the Pacific, with statistically significant rates between ±10 and ±500 mm per meter sea level rise observed. These tidal anomalies, while influenced by basin‐scale climate processes and sea level changes, appear to be locally forced (in part) and not coherent over amphidromic or basin‐wide scales. Overall, the Western Pacific shows a greater concentration of tide/sea level correlations at interannual time scales than the Eastern Pacific; 44% and 46% of gauges are significant in K1 and O1 in the west compared to 29% and 30% in the east, and 63% and 53% of gauges in the west are significant in M2 and S2 versus 47% and 32% in the east. Seasonal variation in tidal properties is less apparent in the empirical record, with statistically significant seasonal variations observed at only 35% of all gauges, with the largest concentrations in Southeast Asia.

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Human impacts on tides overwhelm the effect of sea level rise on extreme water levels in the Rhine–Meuse delta

Cited by 58 publications

References 27 publications

Tidal river dynamics: Implications for deltas

Tidal river dynamics: Implications for deltas

The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications

Tidal Variability Related to Sea Level Variability in the Pacific Ocean

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