Human activities and global warming: a cointegration analysis

Abstract

Using econometric tools for selecting I(1) and I(2) trends, we found the existence of static long-run steady-state and dynamic long-run steady-state relations between temperature and radiative forcing of solar irradiance and a set of three greenhouse gases series. Estimates of the adjustment coefficients indicate that temperature series is error correcting around 5e65% of the disequilibria each year, depending on the type of long-run relation. The estimates of the I(1) and I(2) trends indicate that they are driven by linear combinations of the three greenhouse gases and their loadings indicate strong impact on the temperature series. The equilibrium temperature change for a doubling of carbon dioxide is between 2.15 and 3.4 (C, which is in agreement with past literature and the report of the IPCC in 2001 using 15 different general circulation models.

Measuring the Distance between Sets of ARMA Models

“…We concluded that all four temperature time series are integrated of order one. These results are consistent with those obtained by Stern and Kaufmann ([24]), Liu and Rodriguez ( [25]) and Mills ([26]). Now, in order to build a model portfolio for the considered time series, we identify ARMA models for the first differences of our time series.…”

Anthropogenic global warming hypothesis: testing its robustness by Granger causality analysis

“…Here, we take d max to be equal to 1. In fact, recent researches (Kaufmann and Stern, ; Stern and Kaufmann, ; Liu and Rodriguez, ; Kodra et al , ; Attanasio, ) show that global temperature has an integration order of 1. Attanasio (2012) finds the natural forcings, and GHG‐total RF are at most integrated of order 1.…”

Statistical Analysis of Global Surface Temperature and Sea Level Using Cointegration Methods

“…Within the field of econometrics there exists an extensive body of literature on analysis of time series containing a combination of stochastic and deterministic trends. We find it peculiar that these analysis tools, which are applied on a routine-basis in economical analyses, are rarely applied in the analysis of climate data, with Stern (1997, 2002), Kaufmann et al (2006aKaufmann et al ( , 2006b), Liu and Rodriguez (2005), Mills (2009), Stephenson et al (2000), Stern (2006), Stern andKaufmann (1999, 2000) as notable exceptions. A central concept in these works is cointegration, which is also the backbone in the method we will apply.…”