How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy

Gerberding, Christina; Seitz, Franz; Worms, Andreas

doi:10.1016/j.najef.2005.05.003

Cited by 76 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 13 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Orphanides and VanNorden (2002) study the relative contribution of revisions to output data and the changability of typical detrending methods' estimates of the output gap at the end of the sample. Other papers that study the consequences of data uncertainty in real time for output gap mismeasurement in this vein are: Bernhardsen, Eitrheim, Jore, and Roisland (2004), (Norway), Gayen and VanNorden (2004), (Canada) Nelson and Nikolov (2003) and Gerberding, Worms, and Seitz (2004) respectively.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Time-Variation in Measurement Error from Data Revisions; An Application to Forecasting in Dynamic Models

Kapetanios

Yates

2004

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Over time, economic statistics are refined. This means that newer data is typically less well measured than old data. Time variation in measurement error like this influences how forecasts should be made. We show how modelling the behaviour of the statistics agency generates both an estimate of this time variation and an estimate of the absolute amount of uncertainty in the data. We apply the method to UK aggregate expenditure data, and illustrate the gains in forecasting from exploiting our model estimates of measurement error.

show abstract

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Time-Variation in Measurement Error from Data Revisions; An Application to Forecasting in Dynamic Models

Kapetanios

Yates

2004

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Germany's entry into the European Monetary System (EMS) in March 1979 is considered by many as a major phase in its monetary policy (see Smets 1997, Clarida, Galí, and Gertler 1998, Gerberding, Seitz, Worms 2005, and Senda 2005. The Bundesbank's commitment to …ght in ‡ation waned somewhat during the period between the two major oil shocks (Clarida and Gertler 1996), however as Gertler (1998) report, in March 1979 "controlling in ‡ation became a major focus of monetary policy"for the Bundesbank.…”

Section: Germanymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Commenting on the period between 1983, Clarida and Gertler (1996 observe that in ‡ation was below target and the real economy was weak and the Bundesbank was "prompted to demonstrate its ‡exibility in both actions and language" and ease short term rates in order to support economic recovery. The annual in ‡ation projection had been steady at 2 per cent since 1984, and in ‡ation had been at low levels since then apart from a blip following the reuni…cation of Germany (see Argy, Brennan and Stevens, 1990, Bernanke and Mihov, 1997, and Gerberding, Seitz, and Worms, 2005.…”

Section: Germanymentioning

confidence: 99%

Monetary policy and real wage cyclicality

Amarasekara

Bratsiotis

2012

Applied Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper points to the potential role of monetary policy in affecting the degree of real wage cyclicality. We show that the degree and direction of real wage cyclicality is determined by the interaction of (i) the returns to scale in production, (ii) the nature of aggregate shocks, and (iii) monetary policy. Given that production technology is fairly constant in the short run, we suggest that variations in the real wage -output covariance depend largely on the combination of the latter two. Identifying well-documeneted monetary policy phases in six major OECD countries and accounting for both aggregate demand and supply shocks, we provide empirical evidence to support our main theoretical claim. JEL Classi…cation Numbers: E24, E32, E52.

show abstract

“…4 As the ECB is known not to focus on the output gap (Gerlach 2007), probably in view of the difficulty to measure it in a real time situation, we estimate a Taylor rule using output growth. Walsh (2004) and Gerberding et al (2005) argue that such a rule performs well in the presence of imperfect information. We assume a constant potential growth rate and include D(y t -y*) instead of (y t -y*):…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB

2010

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real-time expected inflation and output growth are used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB President's introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the ECB communication indicators remain significant.

show abstract

How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy

Cited by 76 publications

References 13 publications

Estimating Time-Variation in Measurement Error from Data Revisions; An Application to Forecasting in Dynamic Models

Estimating Time-Variation in Measurement Error from Data Revisions; An Application to Forecasting in Dynamic Models

Monetary policy and real wage cyclicality

Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About