How Robust is the Asian Precipitation–ENSO Relationship during the Industrial Warming Period (1901–2017)?

Abstract

Instrumental observations (1901–2017) are used to uncover the seasonality, regionality, spatial–temporal coherency, and secular change of the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Asian precipitation (AP). We find an abrupt seasonal reversal of the AP–ENSO relationship occurring from October to November in a large area of Asia north of 20°N due to a rapid northward shift of the ENSO-induced subsidence from Indonesia to the Philippines. We identified six subregions that have significant correlations with ENSO over the past 116 years with |r| > 0.5 (p < 0.001). Regardless of the prominent subregional differences, the total amount of AP during a monsoon year (from May to the next April) shows a robust response to ENSO with r = −0.86 (1901–2017), implying a 4.5% decrease in the total Asian precipitation for 1° of SST increase in the equatorial central Pacific. Rainfall in tropical Asia (Maritime Continent, Southeast Asia, and India) shows a stable relationship with ENSO with significant 31-yr running correlation coefficients (CCs). However, precipitation in North China, the East Asian winter monsoon front zone, and arid central Asia exhibit unstable relationships with ENSO. Since the 1950s, the AP–ENSO relationships have been enhanced in all subregions except over India. A major factor that determines the increasing trends of the AP–ENSO relationship is the increasing ENSO amplitude. Notably, the AP response is asymmetric with respect to El Niño and La Niña and markedly different between the major and minor ENSO events. The results provide guidance for seasonal prediction and a metric for assessment of climate models’ capability to reproduce the Asian hydroclimate response to ENSO and projected future change.

El Niño Diversity Across Boreal Spring Predictability Barrier

“…These teleconnection patterns provide a testbed for understanding the underlying climate dynamics and for assessing climate models' reproducibility of El Niños' climate impacts, which is critical for improved climate predictions. Note that the results shown in Figures 3 and 4 are derived by using the data from 1901 to 2017, and caution should be exercised when applying the results to a shorter period, such as 30–40 years, because the teleconnection pattern may experience multidecadal variations (e.g., Shi & Wang, 2018; Wang et al, 2020; Webster et al, 1998).…”

Mean sea surface temperature changes influence ENSO-related precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes

“…Previous studies have discussed future changes in precipitation anomalies induced by projected ENSO in East Africa 16 , 19 – 22 , the Maritime continent 23 – 25 , South and East Asia 17 , 19 , 26 , North America 18 – 20 , and major monsoon regions 17 , 19 based on enhanced ENSO-teleconnection under anthropogenic forcings. However, a few studies have suggested that the signal for consistent strengthening was relatively weak across the models 17 , 20 , 22 , although the multimodel ensemble mean showed robust increases in ENSO-induced precipitation. A recent study 17 found that in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) version 6, an El Niño-like eastern Pacific warming reduced North American monsoon rainfall as a result of the equatorward shift of the intertropical convergence zone.…”

“…However, a few studies have suggested that the signal for consistent strengthening was relatively weak across the models 17 , 20 , 22 , although the multimodel ensemble mean showed robust increases in ENSO-induced precipitation. A recent study 17 found that in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) version 6, an El Niño-like eastern Pacific warming reduced North American monsoon rainfall as a result of the equatorward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. However, owing to large uncertainties in estimating the changes in SST, future changes in El Niño-induced precipitation in mid-latitude land regions have not been well addressed.…”

“…ENSO-driven tropical precipitation anomalies are projected to increase significantly under the high emission scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [16][17][18] . Previous studies have discussed future changes in precipitation anomalies induced by projected ENSO in East Africa 16,[19][20][21][22] , the Maritime continent [23][24][25] , South and East Asia 17,19,26 , North America [18][19][20] , and major monsoon regions 17,19 based on enhanced ENSOteleconnection under anthropogenic forcings. However, a few studies have suggested that the signal for consistent strengthening was relatively weak across the models 17,20,22 , although the multimodel ensemble mean showed robust increases in ENSO-induced precipitation.…”

Monthly Variations of the Winter Precipitation over the Philippines During the Mature Phase of Eastern Pacific El Niño

“…Besides, it has been pointed out that ENSO influences the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset (Zhou and Chan, 2010;Zhu and Li, 2017), the western North Pacific tropical cyclones, and the interannual variation of precipitation (Du et al, 2011;Ge et al, 2016). Negative correlation exists between ENSO and the winter precipitation in Southeast Asia (Wang et al, 2020). However, previous studies about the ENSO influence on Southeast Asia precipitation have mainly concentrated on seasonal averages, while the sub-seasonal characteristics have not yet been comprehensively revealed.…”