How risk perception shapes collective action intentions in repressive contexts: A study of Egyptian activists during the 2013 post‐coup uprising

Abstract

Social psychological research has overlooked collective action in repressive contexts, where activists face substantial personal risks. This paper examines the social psychological processes motivating activists to engage in collective action in risky contexts. We investigate the idea that perceived risks due to government sanctions can galvanize action through fuelling anger, shaping efficacy beliefs, and increasing identification with the movement. We also argue that anger, efficacy, and identification motivate action intentions directly and indirectly through reducing the personal importance activists attach to these risks. We tested our hypotheses within a sample of Egyptian activists (N = 146) from two protest movements who protested against Morsi's government and the military interventions, respectively, during the 2013 anticoup uprising. In line with our hypotheses, the perceived likelihood of risks was positively associated with anger and identity consolidation efficacy and positively predicted action intentions indirectly through these variables. Risk was also associated with increased political efficacy, but only among antimilitary protesters. Anger and political efficacy predicted action intentions directly and indirectly through reduced risk importance. Results also highlighted differential significance of emotional and instrumental motives for the two protest movements. We discuss directions for future research on the motivators of collective action in repressive contexts.

‘We fight for a better future for our country’: Understanding the Ukrainian Euromaidan movement as the emergence of a social competition strategy

“…The meta‐analysis of van Zomeren et al . () and much subsequent research (e.g., Ayanian & Tausch, ; Saab, Spears, Tausch, & Sasse, ; Tausch et al ., ) affirms the importance of these variables.…”

“…Recent models of collective actionincluding SIMCA (van Zomeren et al, 2008) and EMSICA (Thomas et al, 2012(Thomas et al, , 2016)agree that collective action flows from a combination of social identification, group efficacy, and perceived injustice; that is, supporters are more likely to act where they are committed to the cause, believe the cause can be successful, and feel aggrieved, even angry, about the circumstances in which they have been placed. The meta-analysis of van Zomeren et al (2008) and much subsequent research (e.g., Ayanian & Tausch, 2016;Saab, Spears, Tausch, & Sasse, 2016;Tausch et al, 2011) affirms the importance of these variables.…”

Explaining different orientations to the 2013 Gezi Park demonstrations in Istanbul, Turkey

“…Participation in a demonstration of mass protest – marching, chanting, or ‘occupying’ contested space – is a socially shared experience of physical co‐action with like‐minded others (e.g., Duncan, ; Páez, Rimé, Basabe, Wlodarczyk, & Zumeta, ) that is often felt to be empowering (e.g., Acar & Uluğ, ; Drury & Reicher, , ). It can also be dangerous; participation in a demonstration can expose people to arrest, prosecution, police violence, and other dangers (e.g., Ayanian & Tausch, ; for discussions, see Alnabulsi & Drury, ; Klandermans, ; Kritzer, ). For example, in June 2013, anti‐government demonstrations in Istanbul, Turkey, examined here the police used arrests, batons, tear gas, and water cannons against those in and around the main protest sites of Gezi Park and Taksim Square (Bilgiç & Kafkaslı, ; Konda Arastirma ve Danismanlik, ; Leach, Çelik, Bilali, Cidam, & Stewart, ).…”

“…In the present studies, we build on a growing body of work on participation in mass demonstrations and other forms of protest in the everyday world (e.g., Ayanian & Tausch, ; Becker et al ., , Study 1; van Stekelenburg et al ., ) by examining how well social psychological predictors explain individual's orientation to the mass demonstrations in Gezi Park. Our central predictive model is van Zomeren et al .…”

“…police violence, and other dangers (e.g., Ayanian & Tausch, 2016; for discussions, see Alnabulsi & Drury, 2014;Klandermans, 1997;Kritzer, 1977). For example, in June 2013, anti-government demonstrations in Istanbul, Turkey, examined here the police used arrests, batons, tear gas, and water cannons against those in and around the main protest sites of Gezi Park and Taksim Square (Bilgic ß & Kafkaslı, 2013;Konda Arastirma ve Danismanlik, 2014;Leach, C ßelik, Bilali, Cidam, & Stewart, 2016).…”