How precise is the orbit of asteroid (99942) Apophis and how probable is its collision with the Earth in 2036–2037?

Kochetova, O. M.; Chernetenko, Yu. A.; Shor, V. A.

doi:10.1134/s0038094609040078

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…More often than not, the uncertainty region is a 3σ ellipse centred on the nominal solution and its size is directly linked to the observations used. Therefore, the position of the keyhole compared with the size of the ellipse uncertainty is also important for quantifying the risk of future collision (Chesley 2006;Kochetova et al 2009;Bancelin et al 2012a). …”

Section: Impact Of Astrometric Measurements On Orbit Uncertainty -Thementioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical and numerical study of asteroid orbital uncertainty

Desmars

Bancelin

Hestroffer

et al. 2013

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Context. The knowledge of the orbit or the ephemeris uncertainty of asteroids presents a particular interest for various purposes. These quantities are, for instance, useful for recovering asteroids, for identifying lost asteroids, or for planning stellar occultation campaigns. They are also needed for estimating the close approach of near-Earth asteroids, and the subsequent risk of collision. Ephemeris accuracy can also be used for instrument calibration or for scientific applications. Aims. Asteroid databases provide information about the uncertainty of the orbits and allow the measure of the quality of an orbit. This paper analyses these different uncertainty parameters and estimates the impact of the different measurements on the uncertainty of orbits. Methods. We dealt with two main databases, astorb and mpcorb, that provide uncertainty parameters for asteroid orbits. Statistical methods were used to estimate orbital uncertainty and to compare them with parameters from the databases. Simulations were also generated to deal with specific measurements such as the future Gaia mission or present radar measurements. Results. Relations between the uncertainty parameter and the characteristics of the asteroid (orbital arc, absolute magnitude, etc.) are highlighted. Moreover, a review of the different measuments are compiled and their impact on the accuracy of the orbit is also estimated.

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Section: Impact Of Astrometric Measurements On Orbit Uncertainty -Thementioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical and numerical study of asteroid orbital uncertainty

Desmars

Bancelin

Hestroffer

et al. 2013

A&A

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“…Therefore, we cannot yet determine the absolute position of the keyholes. The almost unpredictable Yarkovsky effect may give a deviation in the asteroid's minimum geocentric distance in 2029 up to 600 km (Kochetova et al, 2009). In this case the deviation in the minimum geocentric distance in 2036 may be of the order of 18 million kilometers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Obviously, in developing methods to prevent a collision in 2036, these events must be taken into consideration despite their low probability. The estimates for the probability of a collision of Apophis with the Earth are very sensi tive to initial data, as is shown in (Vinogradova et al, 2008;Kochetova et al, 2009;Shor et al, 2012) and, therefore, exhibit a large spread. Shor et al (2012) analyzed the results of the latest refinements of Apo phis' orbit based on the most complete set of observa tional data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…Currently, the condi tions for observations of Apophis are unfavorable (Chesley, 2006;Harris, 2006). The accuracy of its orbit is analyzed, in particular, in the works of Russian authors (Yagudin and Shor, 2005, Vinogradova et al, 2008Kochetova et al, 2009;Shor et al, 2012). The research on the possible strategies for deflecting the asteroid's orbit shows that deflection efforts may be effective only if they are made well in advance of the 2029 approach (see, e.g., Sokolov et al, 2008a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact trajectories of the asteroid Apophis in the 21st century

et al. 2012

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The asteroid Apophis is one of the most hazardous near Earth asteroids. As a result of the scatter ing of Apophis' potential trajectories after its close approach in 2029, and its possible approach in 2036, there are many dangerous trajectories including impact trajectories after 2036. The purpose of this study is to iden tify and investigate these trajectories. We use the Everhart integrator; the DE405, DE423, and EPM2008 eph emerides; and two sets of initial data for Apophis (those collected by NASA in 2006 and by the IAA in 2010). More than 50 possible encounters in this century are presented, including 13 encounters between 2036 and 2050. The minimum geocentric distances obtained using a different ephemeris and initial conditions differ little between themselves. Analogous results in (Yeomans et al., 2009) are consistent with our results.

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“…The solution NEODyS can be found at http://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys/ index.php?pc=1.1.0&n=99942. As for our new solu tions, they have been obtained, as well as earlier ones (Vinogradova et al, 2008;Kochetova et al, 2009), by numerical integration of relativistic equations of motion of the asteroid and comparison of calculated positions with observations. During integration, per turbations from all major planets according to the DE 405 ephemeris (perturbations from the Earth and the Moon considering separately), Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta were taken into account.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the impact of the Yarkovsky effect on Apophis’ orbit

et al. 2012

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In October 2009, a new set of optical observations of Apophis, a potentially hazardous asteroid, was published. These data have significantly expanded the interval of observations and their total number. In the article we compare the results of refinement of Apophis' orbit made at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL, United States), the University of Pisa (Italy), and the Institute of Applied Astronomy (IAA) of the Rus sian Academy of Sciences with consideration for new observations. New orbits lead to a significant decrease in the probability of Apophis' collision with the Earth in 2036. As a result of processing a large number of observations of asteroids approaching the Earth and main belt asteroids less than 40 km in size, with a large number of optical and, in many cases, radar observations in different oppositions, one of the authors revealed that additional acceleration affects their motion. This acceleration can be represented by the transversal com ponent A 2 in the orbital coordinate system. The presence of this acceleration can be interpreted as the Yark ovsky effect. The statistical properties of distribution of A 2 for asteroids, for which it is determined quite reli ably, evidence in favor of this interpretation. The value of additional acceleration for bodies the size of Apo phis falls in the range ±10 -13 AU/day 2 . In this paper we have calculated the probability of Apophis colliding with the Earth in 2036 at different values of the transversal component of additional acceleration A 2 . For the resulting points, a plot of the probability of the collision against the A 2 value has been constructed. At A 2 = -8.748 × 10 -14 AU/day 2 (and zero values of the radial A 1 and normal A 3 components) the nominal solution for Apophis' orbit on April 13, 2029, is only 90 m from the middle of a "keyhole" 600 m in width, which leads to a collision of Apophis with the Earth in 2036. Since the scattering ellipse in the target plane in 2029 significantly overlaps the keyhole, the probability of collision at the given additional acceleration value is 0.0022. This result has been verified by the Monte Carlo method. Tests of 10000 random sets of orbital elements, which were found taking into account their correlation, have shown that 22 cases have resulted in virtual asteroids colliding with Earth in 2036. A plot of the probability of the collision against the value of A 2 has been constructed.

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How precise is the orbit of asteroid (99942) Apophis and how probable is its collision with the Earth in 2036–2037?

Cited by 7 publications

References 2 publications

Statistical and numerical study of asteroid orbital uncertainty

Statistical and numerical study of asteroid orbital uncertainty

Impact trajectories of the asteroid Apophis in the 21st century

On the impact of the Yarkovsky effect on Apophis’ orbit

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