How modelers construct energy costs: Discursive elements in Energy System and Integrated Assessment Models

Ellenbeck, Saskia; Lilliestam, Johan

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2018.08.021

Cited by 69 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…This research can answer some of these questions due to the full hourly resolution, in particular for storage and resource complementarity. Another criticism of IAMs and energy system models is that such models would be too normative 53 and not arbitrary in assumptions and results. A common weakness of techno-economic energy models is a lack of proper description of social dynamics and technology diffusion.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps

et al. 2019

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A transition towards long-term sustainability in global energy systems based on renewable energy resources can mitigate several growing threats to human society simultaneously: greenhouse gas emissions, human-induced climate deviations, and the exceeding of critical planetary boundaries. However, the optimal structure of future systems and potential transition pathways are still open questions. This research describes a global, 100% renewable electricity system, which can be achieved by 2050, and the steps required to enable a realistic transition that prevents societal disruption. Modelling results show that a carbon neutral electricity system can be built in all regions of the world in an economically feasible manner. This radical transformation will require steady but evolutionary changes for the next 35 years, and will lead to sustainable and affordable power supply globally.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps

et al. 2019

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“…In such cases, it can be difficult from a disciplinary perspective to identify in what ways an assumption is contestable or what the associated uncertainties are. This is all the more relevant in research endeavors surrounding societal challenges such as climate change and CE, which feeds into informing decision-making processes (see also Fisher et al 2010;Ellenbeck and Lilliestam 2019). Implicit and explicit assumptions potentially veil implications of non-transparent, narrow assessments of complex societal challenges.…”

Section: Revealing Underlying Assumptions Assumptions Underlying Indimentioning

confidence: 99%

Unveiling assumptions through interdisciplinary scrutiny: Observations from the German Priority Program on Climate Engineering (SPP 1689)

et al. 2020

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The interdisciplinary exchange in climate engineering research offers a unique opportunity to make assumptions more explicit for such research projects. While making assumptions explicit is the standard in all disciplinary sciences, some assumptions in the context of societal challenges can only be usefully unveiled, discussed, and verified from the perspective of other research disciplines. Results from successful interdisciplinary collaborations are then more accessible and more generalizable to actors beyond the confines of the academic community. We aim to illustrate how interdisciplinary exchange helps to unveil assumptions in research endeavors and why this is important for successful interdisciplinary collaborations. We therefore follow different stages of the German Priority Program on Climate Engineering (SPP 1689), which we use as an example case of a successful interdisciplinary project. SPP 1689 focused on risks, challenges, and opportunities of Climate Engineering from the perspectives of numerous disciplines. Major results were that the initial assessments of technologies had to be sobered, the consideration of trade-offs is crucial for the potential assessment, and governance issues appeared larger than previously considered. From the reflections of SPP 1689, we conclude with three lessons learned: (1) The project profited from egalitarian organizational structures and communicative practices, preventing the predominance from single disciplines. (2) Within the project continuous efforts were undertaken to foster interdisciplinary understanding. In addition, the flexible project structure allowed for the accommodation of research needs arising as a result of these exchanges. (3) SPP 1689 offered early career researchers a platform for professional exchange on common challenges and best practices of being a part of an interdisciplinary research project.

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“…Fundamentally, energy scenarios are social constructs based on assumptions and values that are contingent on the society in which they are formed. Ellenbeck & Lilliestam [35], for example, demonstrated that energy models and assumptions reflect the scenario developers' understanding of society and thus reproduce particular expert discourses.…”

Section: Collectively Held Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How the public imagines the energy future: Exploring and clustering non-experts’ techno-economic expectations towards the future energy system

Braunreiter

Stauffacher

Blumer³

2020

PLoS ONE

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Various countries have pledged to carry out system-wide energy transitions to address climate change. This requires taking strategic decisions with long-term consequences under conditions of considerable uncertainty. For this reason, many actors in the energy sector develop model-based scenarios to guide debates and decision-making about plausible future energy systems. Besides being a decision support instrument for policy-makers, energy scenarios are widely recognized as a way of shaping the expectations of experts and of influencing energy policy more generally. However, relatively little is known about how energy scenarios shape preferences and expectations of the public. We use an explorative research design to assess the publics' expectations of future energy systems through an online survey among Swiss residents (N = 797). We identified four significantly different clusters of people with distinct expectations about the future energy system, each seeing different implications for the acceptability of energy policies and the compatibility with projections of techno-economic energy scenarios. Cluster 1 expects a system-wide energy transition towards renewable energy sources that is similar to the policy-relevant national energy scenario. Cluster 2 also expects an energy transition, but believes it will lead to a range of technical challenges, societal conflicts and controversies with neighboring countries. Cluster 3 is the only cluster not expecting significant changes in the future energy system and thus not anticipating an energy transition. Cluster 4's expectations are between cluster 1 and 2, but it anticipates a huge increase in per capita electricity demand while prices are expected to remain low. The study at hand offers some initial insights into the interdependencies between energy transition pathways outlined in techno-economic energy scenarios and the energy system expectations of the public. These insights are essential for gaining a better understanding of whether and how energy scenarios can contribute to informed public debates about energy futures and how desirable pathways towards them might look like.

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How modelers construct energy costs: Discursive elements in Energy System and Integrated Assessment Models

Cited by 69 publications

References 61 publications

Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps

Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps

Unveiling assumptions through interdisciplinary scrutiny: Observations from the German Priority Program on Climate Engineering (SPP 1689)

How the public imagines the energy future: Exploring and clustering non-experts’ techno-economic expectations towards the future energy system

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