Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps

Abstract

A transition towards long-term sustainability in global energy systems based on renewable energy resources can mitigate several growing threats to human society simultaneously: greenhouse gas emissions, human-induced climate deviations, and the exceeding of critical planetary boundaries. However, the optimal structure of future systems and potential transition pathways are still open questions. This research describes a global, 100% renewable electricity system, which can be achieved by 2050, and the steps required to enable a realistic transition that prevents societal disruption. Modelling results show that a carbon neutral electricity system can be built in all regions of the world in an economically feasible manner. This radical transformation will require steady but evolutionary changes for the next 35 years, and will lead to sustainable and affordable power supply globally.

Solar photovoltaic capacity demand for a sustainable transport sector to fulfil the Paris Agreement by 2050

“…Transportation modes and considered fuels (top) and value chain elements for sustainable fuels (bottom). Figure is taken from the study of Bogdanov et al [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]…”

“…The LUT energy system transition modelling tool simulates an energy system under given conditions. The computer simulation for the power sector is applied for 5‐year time steps for the period from 2015 to 2050.…”

“…Costs of the system are calculated as the sum of the annual capital and operational expenditures (including ramping costs) for all available technologies. The LUT energy system transition model for the power sector is described in detail elsewhere …”

“…Because of the sustainability limits, it is assumed that the contribution of biofuels does not grow as relative share, but that a shift may happen to more sustainable biofuels from degraded land, such as jatropha . The remaining final energy demand can be covered by direct and indirect electrification, which is assumed to be a fully renewable one by 2050 . Solar PV and wind energy are the only RE sources, which are not effectively limited and low cost .…”

“…The used electricity needs to be fully based on renewable sources to match the targets of the Paris Agreement as well as overall sustainability and economic constraints. It was shown in a previous study that a full defossilisation of the power sector is possible by 2050 based on 100% renewable energy (RE) . The 100% RE power system is expected to be lower in cost than the current electricity system and other alternatives, which constitutes the hypothesis that a fully RE‐based transport sector would also be a least cost solution under the given constraints.…”