How Insurgency Begins

Lewis, Janet I.

doi:10.1017/9781108855969

Cited by 63 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 302 publications

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“…With the regional or subnational jurisdiction strategy, Y = 1 and Y = 0 cases might well both be rare. In a well-crafted study of civil conflict in Africa, for example, Lewis (2020) explores all proto-rebel groups in Uganda, an N of 16.…”

Section: Part I: the Methods Outlinedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-N Qualitative Analysis (LNQA): Causal Generalization in Case Study and Multimethod Research

Goertz,

Haggard

2023

Perspect. polit.

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We describe an emerging research practice that we call Large-N Qualitative Analysis (LNQA), outline its core components and codify best practice. LNQA starts with hypothesized regularities and causal mechanisms. Regularities take two basic forms: $ \mathrm{Y} $ generalizations (if $ \mathrm{Y} $ then $ \mathrm{X} $ ) or $ \mathrm{X} $ generalizations (if $ \mathrm{X} $ then $ \mathrm{Y} $ ), albeit with more complex variants. To establish a causal generalization requires defining its scope. The strength of the regularity is simply the percentage of cases conforming with the causal claim. The causal force of LNQA, however, comes from within-case causal inference, which demonstrates the presence and operation of the postulated mechanisms in all cases in the scope. The method thus partly obviates problems arising from case selection in qualitative and multimethod work. We also identify a multimethod variant (M-LNQA), which combines LNQA with experimental, quasi-experimental, or observational statistical analysis. An appendix introduces over fifty examples of the method.

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Section: Part I: the Methods Outlinedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-N Qualitative Analysis (LNQA): Causal Generalization in Case Study and Multimethod Research

Goertz,

Haggard

2023

Perspect. polit.

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“…152 These attacks informed local civilians of the group's goals through a network Kony previously built as a traditional healer. 153 Local communities' silence about the group's whereabouts and activities enabled it to maintain secrecy vis-à-vis the state, as did its early closed membership of approximately two dozen 'devoted followers, from [Kony's] home area' . 154 When they rely on civilians for secrecy in the face of discovery and crackdown even by weak states, these groups are initially disciplined in their limited use of violence against civilians.…”

Section: Type Narrativesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Armed group formation in civil war: ‘Movement’, ‘insurgent’, and ‘state splinter’ origins

Shesterinina,

Livesey

2024

Rev. Int. Stud.

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How do non-state armed groups form in intra-state armed conflicts? Researchers have started to disaggregate armed groups, but we still know little about how armed groups emerge in different ways. Drawing on the literature on social movements, civil wars, and civil–military relations, we generate a typology of ‘movement’, ‘insurgent’, and ‘state splinter’ origins of armed groups. We argue that fundamentally different dynamics of conflict shape armed group origins in the context of broad-based mobilisation, peripheral challenges to the state, and intra-regime fragmentation. Armed groups that emerge in these contexts in general differ in their initial membership and leadership, the basic organisational dimensions that we focus on. We demonstrate the utility of our typology by mapping different origins of armed groups onto existing cross-national data and charting type narratives in illustrative cases. This discussion advances recent efforts to understand the importance of armed group emergence for outcomes of interest to conflict scholars by moving beyond either separate types of origins or highly disaggregated organisational analyses to broader conflict dynamics through which armed groups form, with implications for how these groups act. Future research should consider different origins which we identify in comparison through an in-depth analysis of armed groups’ complex histories.

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“…Rebellions “from below” or non-military rebellions, originating outside of the armed forces, are considerably more theorized than army-splinter rebellions, and have been the focus of much of the literature on civil conflict origins (Fearon and Laitin 2003; Collier and Hoeffler 2004; Humphreys and Weinstein 2008; Blattman and Miguel 2010; Denny and Walter 2014; Lewis 2017; Larson and Lewis 2018; Lewis 2020). Many of the key problems for organizing these rebellions come from the issue of recruitment.…”

Section: The Concept Of Army-splinter Rebellionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These are, in short, distinctive paths to civil conflict. Army-splinter rebellions are thus different from the rebellions from below that have been most frequently theorized, and that are admittedly much more frequent than army-splinter wars (Fearon and Laitin 2003; Collier and Hoeffler 2004; Blattman and Miguel 2010; Cederman, Gleditsch, and Buhaug 2013; Lewis 2017; Larson and Lewis 2018; Lewis 2020). The reason for focusing on army-splinter rebellions is that this represents chunks of the state apparatus turning against itself.…”

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confidence: 90%

State breakdown and Army-Splinter Rebellions

McLauchlin

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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In Afghanistan, Libya, Liberia and beyond, armed rebellions have begun when armies fell apart. When does this occur? This paper conducts a large-N analysis of these army-splinter rebellions, distinct from both non-military rebellions from below and from coups, using new data. It finds that they follow a logic of state breakdown focusing on regime characteristics (personalist regimes and the loss of superpower support at the end of the Cold War) rather than drivers of mass mobilization from below. In contrast, these regime-level factors matter much less for the non-military rebellions from below that dominate theorizing about civil war origins. This paper also shows that one option for military rebels lies in not attempting a coup but instead heading straight into a rebellion. This paper thus distinguishes highly different paths to armed conflict, validates the state breakdown approach to why armies fall apart, and extends the well-known tradeoff between coups and civil wars.

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How Insurgency Begins

Cited by 63 publications

References 302 publications

Large-N Qualitative Analysis (LNQA): Causal Generalization in Case Study and Multimethod Research

Large-N Qualitative Analysis (LNQA): Causal Generalization in Case Study and Multimethod Research

Armed group formation in civil war: ‘Movement’, ‘insurgent’, and ‘state splinter’ origins

State breakdown and Army-Splinter Rebellions

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